Blow It Up or Nah: Which NBA Lottery Teams Need to Start Over This Offseason?
Not all lottery teams are created equal.
Some are trending in the right direction, growing through internal development and slowly acquiring the right pieces to eventually earn status as contenders. Those are the ones who should continue to operate as they have in recent seasons and keep moving toward those coveted playoff spots.
But a handful of teams need to pull the plug.
Whatever they're doing isn't working. Chemistry issues run rampant. The rosters don't have enough talent. The fit isn't there, leading to wasted potential and seasons that do nothing but foster more thoughts of tanking.
In those situations, moving away from the current rebuilds and blowing things up is the proper course of action. Here's hoping your favorite team doesn't fall into that latter category.
Brooklyn Nets
1 of 14
Blowing up a team irresponsibly can be just as bad as trying to stay the course with a misfit roster. If the Brooklyn Nets choose to start over, they'd be falling into the former category.
What exactly would they do after pulling the metaphorical trigger?
They don't have many valuable assets to take advantage of on the trade market. Even Brook Lopez wouldn't fetch much of a return now that he has just one more season before he hits the open market as an unrestricted free agent in 2018. The franchise lacks free-agency appeal, which prevents it from going after big-name players and leaves it wholly reliant on overpaying mid-level targets, then hoping teams don't match offer sheets if the players in question are restricted free agents.
And worst of all, Brooklyn has made it unnecessarily difficult to build through the draft.
The Nets will have two first-round picks in June, but both will come outside the lottery. One, conveyed by the Washington Wizards as recompense for the midseason acquisition of Bojan Bogdanovic, will fall at No. 22. The other comes at No. 27 after the Nets are forced to swap picks with the Boston Celtics. The situation is even worse in 2018, as Brooklyn must give its unprotected first-rounder to the C's.
The organization should be able to find rotation players late in the first round, but it still needs to rely on internal growth from guys such as Caris LeVert, Isaiah Whitehead, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Sean Kilpatrick. Without homegrown breakouts, the rebuild will just drag on and on with no legitimate ways to escape lottery purgatory.
Verdict: Nah
Charlotte Hornets
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This isn't just about Kemba Walker.
The Charlotte Hornets point guard is a legitimate stud. He's somehow still underrated after following up his first All-Star appearance with a torrid second half that emphasized he's one of the elite floor generals in the Eastern Conference. And Walker isn't the only high-quality player wearing a Charlotte uniform.
Unless the Hornets decline team options on Ramon Sessions (they should) and Christian Wood (they did, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski, but shouldn't have), Brian Roberts will be the only other player coming off the books this summer. That's not a huge deal, considering backup point guard was one of the few glaring holes on the 2016-17 roster.
Nicolas Batum is still in place, though the Hornets will need development from other wings to counteract the declining nature of the French forward's game. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist remains a defensive stud. Jeremy Lamb, Frank Kaminsky, Marco Belinelli and Marvin Williams can all be solid rotation pieces, and some (Kaminsky and Lamb) have more potential than others.
But Cody Zeller is the real reason the Hornets shouldn't consider blowing up their core, even if the 2016-17 campaign resulted in a lottery finish. When he was on the floor, Charlotte outscored the opposition by 5.4 points per 100 possessions, leaving it as well more than a fringe playoff contender.
The center does all the little things well, even if his box-score numbers aren't anything to write home about. His interior defense, passing, screen-setting and constant hustle are contagious, and it's no coincidence that his injury-related absences coincided with the Hornets dropping out of the playoff race.
If they run it back and Zeller stays healthy, there's no reason to believe Charlotte won't be a strong postseason threat in 2017-18.
Verdict: Nah
Dallas Mavericks
3 of 14
Dirk Nowitzki throws everything off here, because the Dallas Mavericks have to keep trying for victories and playoff pushes as long as he's still around. He'll acquiesce to a rebuild because there's no other choice, but there's a legitimate difference between an organic rebuild and using the nuclear option to start from scratch.
"Whatever comes, if we are rebuilding, then I'm the face of that," the future Hall of Famer said in his 2016-17 exit interview, per Isaac Harris of The Smoking Cuban.. If we are championship, then I'm here for that. I just identified myself with the organization so long, with the fanbase, with the city, that no matter what the team or the franchise is going through, I'm right there to push it through."
If Nowitzki had retired, the Mavericks could justify shopping Wesley Matthews, Devin Harris and the other veterans on this squad. They could build solely around Yogi Ferrell, Seth Curry, Nerlens Noel and Harrison Barnes, opting entirely for youth over experience.
But that's not the case with Nowitzki in tow.
Instead, the Mavericks know they can compete for a playoff spot if everyone is operating at full strength—a belief aided by their resilience this season and the developments from unexpected sources (see: Ferrell). That's the route they should plan to pursue by adding more quality pieces in free agency and attempting to build around Nowitzki and the rest of the incumbent pieces one more time.
Blowing it up would involve trading the franchise legend, which isn't happening.
Verdict: Nah
Denver Nuggets
4 of 14
What motivation would the Denver Nuggets have to stir the pot?
They can let Danilo Gallinari walk if he declines his player option to become a free agent. They can choose not to re-sign restricted free agent Mason Plumlee after sending Jusuf Nurkic and a first-round pick to the Portland Trail Blazers for his services right before the trade deadline. They can let Roy Hibbert go elsewhere.
But those moves hardly constitute "blowing it up." Letting Plumlee escape would be an ill-advised decision, but even allowing all three veterans to move on would be a justifiable choice for a franchise building around its young talents and looking for cap space with which it can lure a true star. Anything more drastic would be foolish.
Led by Nikola Jokic, who broke out during his sophomore campaign and morphed into one of the league's best centers while sparking an unabashed offensive juggernaut, the Nuggets are brimming with potential across the board.
Jokic and Gary Harris enjoy preternatural levels of chemistry, which has helped both youngsters develop into legitimate building blocks at their respective positions. Jamal Murray has shown flashes of potential stardom, and the same is true—though to a lesser extent—for Juancho Hernangomez. Throw in Emmanuel Mudiay and Malik Beasley, and you almost have too much upside—if such a thing is possible in the NBA.
Staying the course is the only rational decision for Denver.
Verdict: Nah
Detroit Pistons
5 of 14
Going into the 2016-17 campaign, Detroit Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy wanted to build upon his patented four-out, one-in system by surrounding Andre Drummond with shooters. It didn't take long for him to abandon the strategy in favor of alternative schemes, simply because nothing was working.
Drummond can't be viewed as a centerpiece any longer. Despite his rebounding prowess and developing (?) defense, he's a catastrophic presence on offense who somehow scores more points per possession at the free-throw stripe (0.772, assuming two shots per possession) than he does on post-up plays (0.73). Defenses don't need to respect him at all until a shot goes up, which allows them to focus on Detroit's "shooters."
The quotation marks are important, because the Pistons rostered just two players who shot better than the league average (35.8 percent) from downtown. Reggie Jackson connected on 35.9 percent of his attempts while taking 3.5 per game during his disappointing, injury-ravaged campaign, while Reggie Bullock led the team in three-point percentage (38.4) on 2.4 attempts per contest during his 31 appearances.
When the one man on the interior can't score unless he's rolling to the hoop or converting after an offensive board, and the four players on the perimeter exhibit limited gravitational pulls, the offense isn't going to be successful. And it also doesn't help when Jackson struggles to recover from a knee injury, which forces him to crossmatch and hide on defense while his dribble penetration is hindered on the more glamorous end.
The Pistons' intended system didn't work. It's time to start over.
The team should attempt to re-sign and build around Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but everyone else should be available.
Verdict: Blow It Up
Los Angeles Lakers
6 of 14
Don't be fooled by the 26-56 record, which left the Los Angeles Lakers ahead of only the Phoenix Suns and Brooklyn Nets.
Los Angeles was never set up to win. And it didn't.
Instead, this was a season of development under first-year head coach Luke Walton, and a number of players made significant strides. No one will make much noise in the Most Improved Player race, but Julius Randle, D'Angelo Russell, Larry Nance Jr. and Nick Young all proved they could hold their own as legitimate rotation pieces. Plus, rookies Brandon Ingram and Ivica Zubac flashed upside that should have the Purple and Gold excited about their futures.
That's already six players who should be relevant in Los Angeles for a while, though there's no telling how high the stocks could rise for Russell and Ingram. The former is frustratingly inconsistent but shows signs of spectacular vision and shot-making ability. The latter was overwhelmed when faced with a steep learning curve during his rookie season, especially given a slender physique that made banging around with other small forwards a near impossibility.
Both could be superstars one day. There are just no guarantees.
But even if Ingram and Russell stagnate, why would the Lakers blow things up? Barring pingpong-ball disaster, they'll soon be adding another top-tier prospect to their coffers, and they'll have plenty of money to spend in free agency.
It might be tough for fans spoiled by decades of success to accept, but losing is sometimes a necessary stage in the NBA. The Lakers are on the right track, even if patience is necessary for a while longer.
Verdict: Nah
Miami Heat
7 of 14
The Miami Heat already blew up their style of play, and it nearly led to a postseason berth.
At the beginning of the season, head coach Erik Spoelstra attempted to let the offense flow through Hassan Whiteside, which led to a record of 11-30 and an assumption that the Heat would soon begin tanking to play for the best possible lottery odds. A few months later, Miami wasn't eliminated from playoff consideration until it lost a tiebreaker with the Chicago Bulls on the final day of the regular season.
What changed? In a word: everything.
During the second half of the season, Spoelstra shifted gears and let his players adopt a drive-and-kick mentality. Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters assumed more responsibilities in the starting lineup, while James Johnson broke out on the bench as a super-sub who could fill every role under the sun. The result was a 30-11 record—the literal mirror image of the first 41 games—that came without significant talent upgrades.
So what's left to blow up?
The Heat don't have many veterans they could ship off to other squads, and they can easily retain 2016-17's core pieces while adding more upside through free agency and the draft. Johnson and Waiters are likely to be unrestricted free agents this summer, and they'll get aggressive offers on the open market. But the Heat would be wise to retain and build off their unlikely momentum. They should continue to trust in Johnson, Waiters, Rodney McGruder and the other unheralded contributors who found such extreme and unexpected success after the rocky start.
Just think about what they could do when they're not starting in such a deep hole.
Verdict: Nah
Minnesota Timberwolves
8 of 14
Karl-Anthony Towns is still growing defensively, doing his best to adapt to the difficult and complicated schemes employed by head coach Tom Thibodeau. But he's already an offensive powerhouse, averaging 28.4 points, 13.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists after the All-Star break. He did this while shooting 59.7 percent from the field, 43.4 percent on long-range attempts and 84.1 percent at the stripe to finish his sophomore go-round.
Efficiency and off-ball defense still elude Andrew Wiggins, but the potential isn't hard to see. The former Kansas standout can function as a volume scorer capable of torturing opponents with his perimeter stroke and ability to attack the hoop, and he still has plenty of time left to grow.
Zach LaVine joins the two up-and-comers as another building block, assuming he has no long-term side effects from his torn ACL. Now that the Minnesota Timberwolves have realized he's far better as an off-ball 2-guard who can occasionally work as a facilitator, he's in a much better position to continue his offensive growth and emerge as an efficient shooter who can average at least 20 points.
Throw in Kris Dunn (who showed defensive promise during his rookie season and has time to grow offensively, Gorgui Dieng (one of the league's most underrated players, thanks to his mid-range jumper and defensive chops), Ricky Rubio (passing genius) and Shabazz Muhammad (decent bench scorer), and you have one of the league's most intriguing cores, bar none.
Changing directions now would be foolish. It's far better to wait and see what happens as these players continue developing and congealing into a cohesive unit.
Verdict: Nah
New York Knicks
9 of 14
Where to start...
The New York Knicks need to make significant changes throughout the organization. This ranges from an owner who continues to make one bad move after another to a team president who publicly bashes his players while making poor changes to a roster that doesn't show any direction.
The Joakim Noah contract is a disaster. The Carmelo Anthony saga just keeps getting worse and worse, especially after Phil Jackson's recent public remarks: "We have not been able to win with him on the court at this time and I think the direction with our team is that he is a player that would be better off somewhere else and using his talent somewhere he can win or chase that championship."
And there's more.
New York tragically misused Kristaps Porzingis during his sophomore campaign, taking the ball out of his hands far too frequently and failing to feature him around the rim defensively nearly as much as it should. It can't seem to quit Derrick Rose, even as the point guard's on-court showings continue to prove he's not a legitimate starter at this stage of his injury-riddled career.
This roster does have players with legitimate potential. Porzingis looks the part of a future star, while Kyle O'Quinn and Willy Hernangomez should be solid rotation players for a long time—or even better, in the latter's case.
But until the front office can get its act together, New York will be a toxic free-agent destination.
Verdict: Blow It Up
New Orleans Pelicans
10 of 14
Sure, it would've been nice for the New Orleans Pelicans to go better than 11-14 after trading for DeMarcus Cousins. But there was always going to be a steep learning curve for the dynamic frontcourt duo, and early struggles should've been expected.
If Cousins and Anthony Davis can't win in 2017-18, that's when it'll be time to pull the plug on the current roster construction. But for now, the Pelicans have to see what the "fire and ice" combination can do alongside Jrue Holiday, working feverishly to surround the triumvirate with quality perimeter defenders and floor-spacing options all the while.
Both All-Star bigs enjoy operating from the left side of the court, so that will require adjustment. But that's a solvable issue, and talent should initially trump any concerns about perfect fit. After all, each can step out to the perimeter and drain jumpers, and they're both more than proficient operating around the hoop.
"It's a lot of new looks for me and him," Cousins explained, per the New Orleans Advocate's Scott Kushner. "We are used to seeing double- and triple-teams every night. Now, we are getting single coverage and it's a lot of weird defenses being thrown at us, because we have similar skill sets and us being able to do things we do on the floor. It's hard for teams. So, we are seeing different looks and just adjusting."
The adjustments will continue. And they should.
After all, the Pelicans now boast plenty more upside than they've enjoyed for a long time.
Verdict: Nah
Orlando Magic
11 of 14
Modern NBA teams can't survive when they're incapable of knocking down shots beyond the three-point arc. And even after shipping Serge Ibaka to the Toronto Raptors for Terrence Ross and a first-round pick, that's still a concern for the Orlando Magic.
Just take a gander at the outside-shooting numbers of the potential starting five for 2017-18:
| Elfrid Payton | 1.8 | 27.4 |
| Evan Fournier | 5.3 | 35.6 |
| Terrence Ross | 5.0 | 36.3 |
| Aaron Gordon | 3.3 | 28.8 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 1.0 | 30.7 |
| Total | 16.4 | 33.1 |
That's...not ideal. Remember, the league-average three-point percentage is 35.8 percent—a mark which only Ross beat in 2016-17.
Orlando has already started to clean up the frontcourt logjam created by now-former general manager Rob Hennigan, but there's still a lot more work left. Changes are needed across the board, and no player should feel safe for the time being.
But don't just take my word for it.
"The facts are we regressed this year and we made the decision that five years under this leadership team was enough to show improvement, which we have not,'' team CEO Alex Martins said about the decision to fire Hennigan, per ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst. "I believe we have provided all of the assets, the autonomy and the tools necessary over the past five years in order to build a successful program.''
Verdict: Blow It Up
Philadelphia 76ers
12 of 14
The Philadelphia 76ers may be disheartened by the never-ending stream of injuries plaguing their prospects. Joel Embiid played in only 31 games during his rookie season (though he may still have done enough to win Rookie of the Year), while Ben Simmons sat out the entire campaign with a foot fracture and will be the latest Sixer to enjoy a delayed inaugural go-round.
But the talent here is overwhelming.
No one knows what exactly Simmons will be at the professional level. Embiid, if he stays healthy, is capable of playing like the league's best center on both ends of the floor. Robert Covington morphed into an ace defender during 2016-17, and the team has a number of useful pieces such as T.J. McConnell who can provide depth for the rotation.
Throw in high-upside draft picks in late June and the cap space necessary to pursue more intriguing players, and you have one of the Association's most promising rebuilds. Not only should the organization avoid hitting the red button, but it should seal the glass case in an extra layer of bubble wrap to keep everyone even further away from it.
Blowing it up is as antithetical as possible to trusting the process.
Verdict: Nah
Phoenix Suns
13 of 14
This is not a statement about the level of talent on the Phoenix Suns' roster.
In fact, nothing could be further from the truth.
Devin Booker should turn into a star at shooting guard, and not just because he dropped 70 points in a single game toward the end of his sophomore season. The 20-year-old is a tremendously gifted scorer who steadily improved his efficiency levels throughout the year, and he's already a rock-solid one-way player. If his defense ever comes around, he'll be right up there with the best of the bunch at his position.
Tyler Ulis, Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss all have plenty of untapped potential. Chriss should already factor into the All-Rookie conversation after an impressive second half, and Bender's ceiling could be even higher as he adjusts to the Association. Plus, we can add Alex Len (assuming Phoenix re-signs him in restricted free agency) and TJ Warren into the conversation as lower-upside youngsters who should still factor into the rotation.
The problem here isn't a talent deficit, so much as an overabundance of veterans blocking their developments.
Eric Bledsoe, despite his status as an All-Star-caliber point guard who doesn't typically get thrust into the national spotlight, could be shipped off to create openings for Ulis and Booker. Ditto for Brandon Knight, Tyson Chandler, Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa.
Having some veterans is a good thing. But the Suns need to balance out their roster and hand the reins to the up-and-comers if they want to see their rebuild through.
Verdict: Blow It Up
Sacramento Kings
14 of 14
Culture, culture, culture.
The Sacramento Kings claimed to be remedying it by moving DeMarcus Cousins for a package centered around Buddy Hield, but that was always a smokescreen attempting to cover up for team owner Vivek Ranadive's well-documented desire to acquire Hield.
"It was time for a change, and I decided this was the best direction for the organization," general manager Vlade Divac said in a statement, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein. "Winning begins with culture, and character matters. With the upcoming draft class set to be one of the strongest in a decade, this trade will allow us to build the depth needed for a talented and developing roster moving forward."
Does that mean Darren Collison (pleaded guilty to misdemeanor domestic battery) and Ty Lawson (dropped domestic violence charges and four separate DUIs) are on their way out as well? Both are unrestricted free agents, so the Kings do have a chance to change the culture of their roster this offseason, particularly after they already jettisoned Matt Barnes.
But the whole roster needs to be revamped.
Hield, Skal Labissiere and Willie Cauley-Stein have plenty of upside, but the roster is brimming over with failed prospects (Ben McLemore chief among them) and veterans moving away from their athletic primes (post-Achilles Rudy Gay, Kosta Koufos and more). Chances are, the central figure of the rebuild isn't even on the roster yet, no matter how many times Ranadive wants to compare Hield to Stephen Curry.
Verdict: Blow It Up
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, ESPN.com or NBA Math.
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