Bleacher Report Super Bowl Prop Bet Extravaganza

There is something about the Super Bowl that turns us all into Vegas wise guys for one evening. Luckily, prop bets transform four hours of football into a virtual home casino for the evening. Folks who skulk around with their NCAA tournament office pools like Breaking Bad extras suddenly find themselves openly struggling with the decision to wager at 20-1 odds that Levine Toilolo will lead all tight ends in receiving yardage.

Bleacher Report is here to make those tough prop bet decisions easier with a mix of real statistical analysis, old-school point-spreader's horse sense, a little humor and all the knowledge of Lady Gaga a dude who owns the entire Steely Dan discography can glean from polling nearby millennials.

The prop bets on the following slides come straight from OddsShark's Ultimate Super Bowl Props page and printable Party Prop Betting Sheet, though a few have been culled from other sources. Odds are likely to have changed since this article was written, but don't worry, because the reasoning behind each selection is as airtight as the hull of a submarine.

All splits and statistics, unless otherwise noted, are courtesy of the NFL Game Statistics and Information System. 

This is your chance to beat the house, or at least triumph for once in party props over the sister-in-law who will show up Sunday thinking the Packers are playing.

Early-Game Prop Bets

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Will the national anthem be longer or shorter than 2:15?

Luke Bryan is a contemporary male country singer who wears baseball caps. Contemporary male country singers who wear baseball caps are not about vamping and preening on high notes. They are about getting the song done right and getting on with the game. That's all the analysis you could possibly ask for from someone who has never listened to a Luke Bryan song and doesn't care enough to spend six seconds searching YouTube for one. Under.

Will the coin toss land on heads or tails?

Bleacher Report ran a 100,000 flip simulation, and boy are our fingers tired (rimshot). Results were inconclusive, so we consulted a professor of statistics, who solemnly informed us that Tails Never Fails.

Who will win the coin toss?

The smart money is on Bill Belichick's Scarlet Witch-like probability-altering powers. We'd like to apologize for planting the image in your mind of Belichick dressed like the Scarlet Witch. Patriots.

Will the first offensive play be a run or a pass/sack?

The Falcons run on 50.7 percent of first-down plays. The Patriots run on a surprising 54.3 percent of first downs. Those numbers are skewed by lots of fourth-quarter munch-the-clock handoffs, but picking Run still gives you better odds than the coin toss.

Which will be the first team to score?

The Falcons are on a streak of eight straight opening-drive touchdowns, including playoff games. The Patriots, on the other hand, outscored opponents 130-32 in first quarters. (The Falcons tallied a 139-68 advantage.)

The Patriots are significantly better at stopping early drives than the Falcons, and they have enjoyed more than a decade of success by jumping out to early leads. Patriots.

Will the first scoring play of the game be a field goal or safety vs. touchdown?

According to the drive stats compiled by Jim Armstrong for Football Outsiders, the Falcons lead the NFL in touchdowns per drive, punching it in the end zone a whopping 34.9 percent of the time. The Patriots ranked fourth with a touchdown at the end of 29.5 percent of drives. This is a no-brainer: Go for the Touchdown.

Will the jersey number of the first player to score be odd or even?

Both Stephen Gostkowski and Matt Bryant wear uniform No. 3. Factor in Julio Jones (No. 11), LeGarrette Blount (29), Julian Edelman (11) and others, and "even" barely stands a chance. Odd.

Odds to score the first touchdown

Julio Jones: 15-2
Devonta Freeman: 8-1
LeGarrette Blount: 8-1
Julian Edelman: 8-1
Mohamed Sanu: 14-1
Martellus Bennett: 12-1
Chris Hogan: 12-1
Tevin Coleman: 12-1
Dion Lewis: 12-1
FIELD: 11-2

Coleman is a great bang-for-the-buck selection here. He gets some goal-line carries, has big-play potential and will be a mismatch against any Patriots linebacker in coverage.

If there was a "who will commit offensive pass interference on the first touchdown but get away with it," the smart money would be on either Bennett or Sanu.

Scoring-Related Prop Bets

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Which team will score the longest touchdown?

The Falcons scored 21 touchdowns of 40-plus yards this season, the Patriots just 12. Both teams allowed six, so the Falcons have a big advantage here.

If you are wagering on a player-by-player basis, Julio Jones scored six 40-plus-yard touchdowns this season, Tevin Coleman four and Taylor Gabriel three. Chris Hogan led the Patriots with four long touchdowns because the Steelers weren't the only team to forget that he existed.

Which team will score last?

Remember when the Patriots beat the Jets 41-3 in Week 16? The Jets scored last in that game, kicking a field goal to avoid a shutout.

Sometimes, there's almost a coin-toss-level randomness to predicting the last score (as opposed to the first score, which at least reflects the quality of each team's early-game offense and defense.) But Week 16 aside, the Patriots are known for stomping on the accelerator late in games. The Falcons, meanwhile, let the Seahawks and Packers run around the field late in playoff blowouts and allowed a scary near-comeback by the Saints.

Whether the Patriots are winning or losing, there's anecdotal evidence that they will be the ones scoring last. Unless the Jets show up.

Which will be the highest-scoring quarter?

The second quarter is a time of mayhem in Falcons games. Atlanta outscores opponents 157-127 in the second quarter. If the Falcons played full games the way they play second quarters, every game would end in a 39-32 final score. Which, come to think of it, isn't that much different from the typical Falcons final score.

The Patriots spread their general dominance more evenly over all four quarters. So look for the second quarter to start with someone punching in a touchdown at the end of a first-quarter drive, then wrap up with dueling two-minute drills. Second Quarter.

Will either team score a special teams or defensive touchdown?

Is there anyone on earth looking at these quarterbacks and these defenses and thinking, "Oh yeah, this game is gonna be just chuck-full of pick-sixes?"

Also, there were 77 total return touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference, in 256 NFL regular-season games. So there's a 30.1 percent chance of a return touchdown in any given game. Factor in a higher probability of such plays when great defenses and/or terrible quarterbacks are involved—neither of which is the case this year—and this one is an absolute No.

With either team attempt a two-point conversion?

The Patriots are 1-of-2 on two-point conversions this season. Opponents are 1-of-3. Those are strange-looking figures because the Patriots are known for bold, forward-thinking offensive tactics, and their opponents are usually in desperate catch-up mode. But it only takes so much innovation to trounce the Jets, and a team cannot attempt a two-point conversion if it cannot score a touchdown (see: the Jets).

The Falcons are 2-of-6 on two-point conversions, their opponents 6-of-10. The primary mechanism for creating a two-point conversion attempt in Super Bowl LI would be a Falcons blowout. This game is unlikely to turn into one. No.

Will there be a field goal over 44.5 yards?

(Searches game logs for Matt Bryant's and Stephen Gostkowski's 45-yard-plus field-goal rates.)

(Realizes that this is long, tedious work for a silly prop bet about kickers.)

(Decides to come up with goofy-yet-plausible rationalization instead).

The high-powered Falcons and Patriots offenses are better off going for it when they are around the 30-yard line, and their coaches know it. So pick No on this one.

(Orders pizza and loads Netflix.)

Quarterback and Award-Based Prop Bets

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Which quarterback will have the most passing yards?

Ryan averaged 309 yards per game in the regular season, Brady 296.2 yards per game.

Every veteran prop-bettor knows that the quarterback who throws for the most passing yards is usually the one who loses the game. If you are predicting a close Patriots win with lots of valiant Ryan pace-keeping, which is what the spread and over/under suggest Vegas expects to happen, you want to pick Ryan.

Will Tom Brady rush for over 2.5 yards?

Brady has rushed for 117 yards in 33 playoff games, or 3.54 yards per game. He has cracked the 2.5 "over" of this prop bet 15 times, including both playoff games after the 2015 season.

Kneeling at the end of a victory officially counts as a rush for minus-one yards in the play-by-play, so if everything goes according to plan for the Patriots, Brady will "run" two or three times for a loss of two or three. Brady has "rushed" for negative yardage in nine postseason games in his career.

Take the Under on this one and you won't be disappointed when a four-yard sneak gets inched backward by a pair of fourth-quarter clock-killers.

Will the MVP Award be won by a quarterback or a non-quarterback?

Ladies and gentleman, your Super Bowl LI MVP award winner: Rob Ninkovich!

Sounds a little implausible.

The MVP tally of the last 20 Super Bowls features 11 quarterbacks, four defensive players, three receivers, running back Terrell Davis and returner Desmond Howard. The likelihood of a defensive player crashing this pinball game is low. Julio Jones is the only receiver with a chance to escape his quarterback's shadow with a great performance, and the odds are stacked against everyone else. Quarterback.

Odds to Win MVP Award (via For The Win)

Tom Brady: 3-2
Matt Ryan: 11-4
Julio Jones: 15-2
Field: 10-1

(Check out OddsShark for up-to-date lines and a complete list if you have a hankering to wager on Eric Weems for MVP)

Wagering at less than 2-1 odds is like bringing a work friend to a wedding. If you really feel strongly about Ryan or Brady for MVP, why not just pick the Falcons or Patriots and enjoy a greater payout?

As unlikely as non-quarterback MVPs are, getting a Devonta Freeman/Julian Edelman/Everyone Else bundle at 10-1 makes the big reward worth the minor risk and gives you 100 players to root for instead of one. Field.

Rushing and Receiving Prop Bets

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Who will have the most receiving yards: Julio Jones or the field?

Jones only led a game in receiving yards (counting both teams) six times in the regular and postseason combined this year.

Injuries eliminated or limited him a few times. Mohamed Sanu and Devonta Freeman each edged Jones in receiving yards in games when he was healthy. And Michael Thomas of the Saints and Mike Evans of the Buccaneers bested Jones in receiving yards even when Jones put up big numbers because a) the Falcons defense isn't great and b) the team playing from behind usually puts up gaudier receiving numbers.

Factor in the Patriots' tendency to aggressively double cover receivers of Jones' caliber, and this is a good opportunity to play the Field.

Who will have the most receiving yards? (Odds via For the Win)

Julio Jones: 7-4
Chris Hogan: 6-1
Julian Edelman: 2-1
Mohamed Sanu: 10-1
Martellus Bennett: 14-1
Taylor Gabriel: 15-2
Field: 14-1

The Field only holds an edge over Jones until Hogan, Edelman and others are removed from it. But as noted above, Jones does not look like a great 2-1 bet (and the payout appears to be decreasing as the week progresses).

Taking Edelman at 2-1 or Hogan at 6-1 provides a beefy return on two appealing investments: Edelman having a 12-catch, 112-yard performance on screens and slants or Hogan getting one more use out of the Cloak of Invisibility he wore against the Steelers. Hogan may be the best bet because the Edelman line is moving.

Will LeGarrette Blount score a touchdown?

The last Patriots running back to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl was Laurence Maroney in the second quarter of Super Bowl XLII. Remember Maroney? He was the guy who used up Belichick's last ounce of patience, which is why Jamie Collins is cashing checks from the Browns instead of practicing this week.

Anyway, Blount has gotten more goal-line opportunities than any Patriots running back since Corey Dillon. But this prop bet slams into the brick wall of Patriots contrarianism. There is too good a chance that they will line up in a heavy-jumbo package at the 1-inch line, fake a handoff to Blount, and then throw a fade in the corner of the end zone to eligible tackle Marcus Cannon. No.

Who will have more rushing yards: Freeman or Coleman?

It's cute that the designers of prop party bets gave up on the Patriots running game 10 years ago. They probably also lost patience with Maroney. Freeman.

Who will have the most rushing yards? (Odds via For the Win)

LeGarrette Blount: 9-4
Devonta Freeman: 5-2
Tevin Coleman: 3-1
Dion Lewis: 6-1
Field: 28-1

Blount's potential for an 18-carry, 43-yard game make him a bad risk at the given odds. Freeman has high potential to break your wagering heart with a great game consisting of 42 rushing yards and 58 receiving yards. Taking a backup running back like Coleman at 3-1 odds is like tossing money in a fireplace. Lewis is less likely than Coleman to rip off a 75-yard run, but he is still semi-likely, and the payoff is much tastier.

Will Julio Jones have a reception longer than 27.5 yards?

Boy, we're really milking the Julio Jones potential of these prop bets. Let's see, we picked the Falcons for longest touchdown but Chris Hogan for most receiving yards, so let's play both sides in the middle (a sound strategy for party prop sheets) by picking No.

Totally Gaga Prop Bets

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/Getty Images

WARNING: The person writing these prop bets was chosen for his football expertise. He's old. Like, tomato-soup-and-grilled-cheese-for-lunch old. His pop music analysis may not be up to the lofty standards set by his knowledge of the NFL.

Which song will Lady Gaga perform first at the Super Bowl halftime show: "Born This Way," "Bad Romance," "Edge of Glory," "Poker Face," "Just Dance" or Any Other Song?

An inside source told Bleacher Report that Ms. Gaga plans to perform Emerson, Lake and Palmer's seminal album Brain Salad Surgery at halftime.

Since that is not one of the options, select Other, which sounds like a totally dope jam.

What will Lady Gaga's primary hair color be when she takes the field? (Odds via For The Win)

Blonde: 2-3
Brown: 3-1
Pink: 10-1
Field: 14-1

Wait, I know this! Ms. Gaga is going for the "down-to-earth" look these days, not the "alien from planet Glittertinsel" image she used to project. So … blonde.

Though brown is even more down-to-earth, isn't it? And what would be more "down to earth" than a pop star dying her hair from its natural color to appear down-to-earth? Wait, is Gaga a natural blonde? Is Gaga a natural anything?

Football is easy. Pop culture is hard.

What color hoodie will Bill Belichick wear? (Odds via For The Win)

Blue: 4-11
Grey: 3-1
Red: 40-1
Field: 50-1

Fashion designers have invented a material that reflects light back at cameras, rendering the wearer nearly invisible to photography. Belichick will start wearing this material as soon as someone tailors to his preferred lawn-and-leaf-bag cut. Until then, Patriots Blue it shall be.

What color will the Gatorade shower be: clear/white or any other color?

Eww. Can someone please explain a "white Gatorade" shower? (It was taken from actual prop sheets). No, please, don't explain it (and for the love of all that is holy please do not web search it). Seriously, this is not the Indianapolis 500, there is no milk involved, and therefore white liquids are strictly verboten.

If there is one color you can count on Gatorade being, it's Any Other Color. Probably green. NFL guys dig the green.

Company to win best commercial (according to USA Today Ad Meter)? (Odds via For The Win)

Budweiser: 5-2
Hyundai: 4-1
Wix: 5-1
Field: 5-3

Football writers don't watch the commercials, folks; we're either at the game or busily scribbling notes during breaks to compensate for the fact that we are not at the game. I had no idea what Wix was until I saw this prop bet. Seriously. I thought it was cereal.

The Field is a safe bet that gobbles up everything from the snack industry to some website willing to do anything for brand recognition (though Wix may not be getting the most bang for that buck).

But really, commercial-based prop bets are the worst. Boy, that was a great game. Say, I wonder if I won my bet? Let me do something super-fun to find out: consult with advertising industry insiders!

Prop Bets That Are Really Bets

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Which team will win the Game?

Wait, this isn't a "prop" bet. It's a "bet" bet!

Without turning this slide into a long game preview, here are two quick talking points:

1) The Falcons' red-zone defense is weak, the Patriots' is relatively strong, and one trade of a touchdown for a field goal could be enough to tilt the outcome.

2) As the Broncos proved against the Seahawks four years ago, the great offense/really young defense combination is not a formula for Super Bowl glory. The Falcons may be trying to win this year's Super Bowl with next year's Super Bowl roster. Patriots

Will the margin of victory be more than four points?

Remember that you aren't picking the spread here. You are choosing an eight-point range of close-game score values against every result from a 31-24 score either way to a blowout. This year's playoffs were full of games that looked close on paper but turned into blowouts, often involving the Falcons or Patriots, so pick Yes.

Total points scored? (over-under 58.5)

Only suckers and hopeless neurotics ever take the "under." Especially when the Falcons are involved. Over.

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @MikeTanier.