NFL Playoff Picture 2017: Championship Bracket Scenarios and Super Bowl Odds
It's hard to envision getting a bad Super Bowl with any combination of the four teams remaining.
There is no real weak link among the quartet. Certainly, a strong favorite exists (New England), but the other three teams didn't luck their way into the conference championship round.
Let's take a look at the latest NFL postseason bracket and Super Bowl odds and break down the four possible Super Bowl scenarios.
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NFL Bracket
Super Bowl Odds
The latest Super Bowl odds, per OddsShark, are as follows: New England Patriots (3-2), Atlanta Falcons (13-5), Green Bay Packers (15-4) and Pittsburgh Steelers (17-4).
Super Bowl Scenarios
New England vs. Atlanta
A battle of the top-scoring offense (Atlanta) against the top-scoring defense (New England). We've seen that before, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers crushed the Oakland Raiders, 48-21 in Super Bowl XXXVII.
The Bucs had the top defense that year and one of the best units in football history. The Patriots can't make that boast, but their defense is highly underrated, featuring a stout run-stopping unit and a pass defense that's been fantastic in recent weeks.
The Pats' conundrum is that they can't consistently and effectively rush the passer, accruing a mediocre 34 sacks on the year, which ranked in the middle of the league.
That might be a problem against Matt Ryan and the Falcons, who make their living through the air. Ryan has an All-World wide receiver (Julio Jones), two running backs who can catch passes out of the backfield and scored a combined 24 regular season touchdowns (Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman), and some dependable receivers (Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel).
But the Falcons' issue might be a bigger dilemma: They let up 406 points in the regular season. New England is going to score at will against an Atlanta team that has a few problems rushing the passer (Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks this year, but the rest of his teammates combined barely beat him with 18.5 sacks), stopping the run (they allowed 4.5 yards per carry this year) and stopping the pass (Football Outsiders ranked them a below-average 19th out of 32 units this season).
The Patriots won't run away with this game, but they would be solid favorites if this ends up being the matchup.
New England vs. Green Bay
The Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers talk would start at approximately 10 p.m. ET on Sunday if this turns out to be your Super Bowl matchup.
Somehow, we haven't gotten this Super Bowl yet, even though each team has made the playoffs every season for the past eight years.
New England would have the edge because Green Bay's secondary is struggling mightily (the Packers allowed 8.1 yards per pass attempt this year, the worst total in the league).
That's an issue against arguably the best quarterback in the history of football.
The success of the Green Bay offense would largely depend on how healthy the receiver corps is, as three Packers (Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison) are on the latest injury report for the NFC Championship.
Nelson and Adams combined for 26 touchdowns this season. That's a lot of scoring production the Packers would somehow need to replace.
Rodgers is playing better football than anyone else in the league aside from maybe Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell, but he can only do so much if he has to go to work with a crew that's either missing guys or playing folks who are much less than 100 percent.
New England would likely win this game even if the Packers' wide receivers can all play, but it would be close.
Pittsburgh vs. Green Bay
A rematch of the Super Bowl six years ago, when the Packers won 31-25 and Rodgers took the Super Bowl MVP.
Pittsburgh, with its rejuvenated pass rush, might have the slight edge in this matchup. The Packers have done an incredible job blocking for Rodgers as he dodges, ducks, dips, dives and dodges every defender in the NFL before throwing darts downfield, but the Steelers' pass rush is coming on strong in the second half of the season.
According to Danny Kelly of The Ringer, Pittsburgh has 30 sacks from Weeks 9 through 17, which was tops in the league. That's in addition to five sacks against Miami in the AFC Wild Card Round.
Even when Pittsburgh isn't getting sacks, it is still creating havoc, causing holding penalties and interceptions.
The game might be decided on the ground. Le'Veon Bell isn't slowing down for anybody, as he hasn't gained fewer than 100 yards since November 6.
Had he played all 16 games this year, we might be talking about him as a front-running MVP candidate, but he missed four. Still, he found a way to finish fifth in the NFL in rushing.
Pittsburgh is running its offense through Bell, as he's gained 339 rushing yards in two postseason games. That enables the Steelers to chew up valuable clock and keep the opposing offense off the field, which is crucial against elite quarterbacks.
This would arguably be the best Super Bowl matchup of the four, as it's difficult to see either side winning by anything more than one score.
Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta
Per Football Outsiders, Atlanta ranks 29th against the rush. Pittsburgh's rushing attack ranked eighth, and that was with Bell missing four games.
This mismatch could decide the game, as the Falcons don't have the personnel to keep Bell in check. If the Falcons decide to stack the box against Bell, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger could go to the air and find wide receiver Antonio Brown open all day. Atlanta doesn't have a shutdown corner who can slow down Brown.
Although New England is a better team than Pittsburgh, the Steelers might prove to be an even tougher matchup for the Falcons, as their running attack is so potent that they are capable of controlling the clock for 35 minutes (or more), which would keep Matt Ryan and the high-flying Falcons offense on the sidelines.
Still, the Falcons offense is too good, and it's highly unlikely they will get shut down. The Falcons only scored fewer than 23 points once this year, an ugly midseason loss to Philadelphia 24-15. Running back Tevin Coleman was missing from that game, however, and he's proved to be a key cog in the Falcons offense this year, scoring 12 touchdowns in 14 games (including postseason).
Like every other matchup on this list, a Steelers-Falcons Super Bowl would be entertaining. Give the edge to the Steelers in this one, though, with Bell proving to be the difference.
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