Raiders vs. Texans: Complete Wild Card Gameday Preview

On Saturday afternoon, the 2017 NFL playoffs get underway when the Oakland Raiders travel to Houston to face the Texans.

For the Raiders, it's their first playoff appearance since getting throttled by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII. For the Texans, it's a second straight trip to the postseason and second consecutive AFC South championship.

The hype surrounding this game has been dominated by the two teams' issues under center, but there are plenty of other subplots too.

It's a contest that features two of the NFL's finest young wide receivers in Houston's DeAndre Hopkins and Oakland's Amari Cooper. Houston has the NFL's best defense in terms of yards allowed, and Oakland's Khalil Mack arguably has the NFL's best defender. And that No. 1 defense is squaring off against an Oakland offense that was ranked inside the top five much of the season.

Of course, there's a valid reason why they no longer are, and that's just one of the many subjects we'll hit on with this preview of the first postseason game of 2017.

Game Specifics

Rebecca Blackwell/Associated Press

When: 4:35 p.m. ET

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston

Network: ESPN/ABC

Expected Weather: Sunny, 43 degrees (domed stadium)

Line (via Oddshark): Texans -3.5

Saturday's meeting between the Raiders and Texans marks the 11th time the teams have met, although they have never faced one another in the postseason.

The Raiders have won three of the last four meetings, including a 27-20 "home" victory over the Texans in November at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

Oakland quarterback Derek Carr keyed a Raiders comeback south of the border, tossing a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown passes in the win. Oakland head coach Jack Del Rio admitted that while the outcome of that game was favorable, it wasn't the team's finest effort of the season, according to Martin Rogers of USA Today.

“It wasn’t one of our cleaner games in execution,” Del Rio said. “But we got the opportunity to seize control of the game late and take a hard-earned win.”

Of course, the circumstances of this game and that one are vastly different—for reasons we're going to get to in just a moment.

Injury Report

Dario Lopez-Mills/Associated Press

Here are the most significant injuries for Saturday's game, per ESPN.

Oakland Raiders

• QB Derek Carr (Leg, Out)
• WR Amari Cooper (Shoulder, Questionable)
• WR Michael Crabtree (Finger, Questionable)
• S Karl Joseph (Toe, Questionable)
• QB Matt McGloin (Shoulder, Questionable)
• OG Kelechi Osemele (Ankle, Questionable)
• OT Donald Penn (Knee, Out)
• OLB Malcolm Smith (Hamstring, Questionable)

Oakland's injury report is a who's who of the team's stars. Both starting wide receivers, the team's two best offensive linemen and Oakland's best linebacker and defensive back are all banged up.

At least one of those offensive linemen will sit Saturday. Left tackle Donald Penn won't play after missing practice all week, as Kevin Patra of NFL.com reported.

Penn's loss is a blow, but the Raiders biggest injury problem is at quarterback. Derek Carr's season is over and Matt McGloin apparently won't sufficiently recover from his shoulder injury in time to take the field against the Texans.

That means that fourth-round rookie Connor Cook will make the first start of his NFL career in the playoffs.

Houston Texans

• OG Jeff Allen (Ankle, Questionable)
• CB A.J. Bouye (Groin, Questionable)
• OT Chris Clark (Leg, Questionable)
• SS Quintin Demps (Hamstring, Questionable)
• QB Tom Savage (Concussion, Out)
• OLB John Simon (Chest, Out)

Houston's league-leading defense has a number of nicked up players leading up to Saturday's playoff tilt, from starting cornerback A.J. Bouye to safety Quintin Demps (the AFC Defensive Player of the Month in December)

However, with the exception of outside linebacker John Simon, who is out with a chest injury, it's believed that it will be all hands on deck (relatively speaking) defensively for the Houston defense against the Raiders.

Like the Raiders, Houston has problems at quarterback. Tom Savage has been ruled out of the game with a concussion, according to Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle reported. Brock Osweiler will start at quarterback against Oakland with Brandon Weeden backing Osweiler up.

Raiders Offense vs. Texans Defense

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

A month ago, this matchup might have made this game the best of the weekend. One of the NFL's most potent offenses against one of the NFL's stoutest defenses. Strength meets strength.

That was before first Derek Carr and then Matt McGloin got hurt, and before the Raiders looked absolutely toothless a week ago while getting blown out by the Denver Broncos.

As Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reported, Oakland head coach Jack Del Rio saw some reasons for optimism in regards to Cook during that game against the Broncos.

“He went into a very difficult set of circumstances and I thought he handled himself extremely well,” Del Rio said. “I thought the poise was there. The moment didn’t look too big for him. He did a real nice job leading the team down and moving the ball. … [His demeanor in the huddle] goes a long way. It certainly does. All of the reports of how he handled himself, what he did on very little preparation last week was impressive.”

Having a rookie making the first start of his career in the playoffs would seem to place additional impetus on the Oakland run game to get things rolling Saturday—whether it's to open up the play-action game or keep their young signal-caller out of third-and-long situations.

Still, Oakland tailback Jalen Richard insisted to Eddie Paskal of Raiders.com that the team's backfield triumvirate (Richard, Latavius Murray and DeAndre Washington) don't feel they have to carry the offense in the Wild Card Round.

“There’s been pressure on us all year,” Jalen Richard said. “That’s how we keep our offense balanced, being able to run the ball, and keep people guessing where they can’t just sit and want to drop back everybody, they have to come down and protect the ball. We had a little added pressure on us when DC went down. Obviously, everybody last game knew that we were going to try to run the ball, and we just couldn’t, and Denver knew we wanted to run the ball, and they had a good game plan, and we just really couldn’t connect on the passes to free up some running lanes.”

Richard just hit on Oakland's biggest problem this week. While Denver possesses the NFL's stingiest pass defense, their run defense was among the NFL's worst in 2016.

Oakland ran for 57 yards in that game.

If the Raiders experience similar difficulties running the ball against Houston's 12th-ranked run defense and put Cook in third-and-long all day, Oakland's going to be in trouble.

Houston's pass defense ranked just behind Denver.

Advantage: Texans

Texans Offense vs. Raiders Defense

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

At this point, it's fair to assume the Texans have been wondering about the return policy on free agent quarterbacks.

The $37 million (guaranteed) Brock Osweiler experiment has been an unmitigated disaster. Osweiler has been arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL in 2016, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns while failing to hit either 3,000 passing yards or a passer rating of 75.

In fact, according to the rankers at Pro Football Focus, there is no argument. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks in 2016, Osweiler ranks dead last.

Despite benching Osweiler less than a month ago in favor of Tom Savage, Houston head coach Bill O'Brien told Brian Smith of the Houston Chronicle that he's confident Osweiler can lead the team to victory.

"Brock did some really good things Sunday with his teammates and almost brought us all the way back," O'Brien said. "I thought that he did a nice job. We have a lot of confidence in him that he's going to go out there and play well on Saturday. We're moving forward and getting ready for the Raiders."

There is some good news for the Texans offensively, however. As ESPN's Sarah Barshop reported, 1,000-yard tailback Lamar Miller, who missed the last two games, will make his return against Oakland.

Miller blamed his absence on the rigors of a 16-game season and a career-high 268 carries, but he told Barshop he feels good and is ready for a big workload Saturday.

"Right now, I feel good," Miller said. "I feel like it's Week 1. I've been doing a lot of treatment, getting massages, doing the little things to prepare myself for this upcoming week. The workload was new to me, but I think overall I did a great job at just taking care of my body. It was just the little things that got to me, but I feel good right now."

Miller's effectiveness will be a key against an Oakland run defense he topped 100 yards against in Week 11. Oakland ranked 20th or worse in every major defensive category in 2016. If the Texans can get Miller going they should be able to dictate the tempo of the game and keep Osweiler in plus-yardage situations on third down.

That's not enough for me to give Houston's 29th-ranked offense an edge here, but neither Khalil Mack nor the Oakland defense have played especially well as a unit this season or last week at Denver, when the Broncos lit them up for 143 yards on the ground.

If that unit plays similarly against the Texans, Oakland's finished.

Advantage: Push

Special Teams

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Neither of the special teams units in this game have been especially special, at least where the kicking game is concerned.

A quick look at the kicker rankings at Pro Football Focus bears that out. Both Oakland's Sebastian Janikowski and Houston's Nick Novak have struggled mightily in 2016. Novak is PFF's worst at the position this season, while "Sea Bass" finished the regular season fifth-worst. The pair have combined to miss 11 field goal attempts this year.

Nothing makes for a more exciting game than struggling offenses plus bad kicking.

At punter, however, it's another story.

Both Oakland's Marquette King and Houston's Shane Lechler rank among the top 10 at PFF. King is fourth in gross punting average, with Lechler not far behind. King also slots at second in the NFL in punts inside the 20-yard line.

Not to mention that King is first in punter celebrations.

The return games of both squads are average, but better at returning punts than kickoffs—at least based on their respective averages. 

Overall, PFF ranks Oakland seventh in the league for their special teams as a whole, while the Texans check in well behind them (and outside the top 25).

I don't know that the disparity is that great, and the odds are that neither team relishes the idea of needing a 47-yard field goal to win this game, but I'll give the edge here to Oakland.

Advantage: Raiders

The Pick

Rebecca Blackwell/Associated Press

Of all the games on Wild Card weekend, this one was the closest call in this week's Bleacher Report's Consensus Expert Picks. The vote split nearly down the middle.

It's a safe bet to expect a close game too. After all, the teams' meeting in Mexico City was decided by a single touchdown.

The problem for Oakland is what's changed since then.

When first these teams met this season, each had flaws and strengths.

The Texans are still who we thought they were. An excellent defensive team with a train wreck where its offense should be. Plus talents at tailback and wide receiver shackled to a dismal starting quarterback.

But the Raiders have been weakened even further. The team that prevailed in Mexico had a below-average defense but a prolific offense. The below average defense is still there, but the offense has been replaced with a unit that didn't move the ball against Denver any better than Houston has this season.

For the Raiders to win this game, Connor Cook is going to have play a great game against one of the NFL's best defenses in a stadium where the Texans went 7-1 this season.

It's a rotten end to a great season for the Silver and Black.

But it's the end nonetheless.

Houston Texans 19, Oakland Raiders 17