Eli Manning Must Deliver More Than One-Liners to Get the Giants Past the Packers

It's time to talk about how poorly Eli Manning has played this year and what the Giants need to do about it if they want to beat the Packers and advance in the playoffs. 

Before we begin, let's acknowledge that criticizing Manning is a literary subgenre with a history almost as long and rich as the Elizabethan sonnet. Some Manning arguments, pro and con, are more than a decade old.

Over five years of "elite" debates have resulted in a hung jury. Everyone knows he's not Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or his own brother. Everyone also knows he's not Brock Osweiler.

It also goes without saying that the Giants have a pair of awful pass protectors at the tackle positions and that their running game sometimes appears to consist solely of shotgun inside zones for three yards. Neither of these things helps a quarterback.

Finally, we don't need to dwell on the Timberlands-on-the-poop-deck wide receiver party-boat photo from Sunday, nor Manning's news conference zingers in response. Yes, Manning found a funny way to defuse a silly controversy. Great stuff. But we've milked that whole affair for much more than it's worth already.

Now that the boilerplate conversations are out of the way, let's get to the meat. Manning's vital stats (yards, yards per attempt, touchdown rate, interception rate) are all down from recent years, and he never posted Brady-Rodgers vitals in the first place.

The New York offense hasn't cracked 20 points in five weeks. Manning has made wild throws and some mind-bending decisions in games that mattered, including his three-interception train wreck against the Eagles two weeks ago, highlighted by a pick-six to the double-covered Will Tye that would fit perfectly into the Blake Bortles blooper reel.

Manning went 18-of-35 for just 199 yards and one late-game, back-of-the-end-zone miracle touchdown to Odell Beckham Jr. against Green Bay in Week 5. That game was full of blatant misfires, including an overthrow to a wide-open Beckham on a deep corner route.

Independent of the protection and running game, Manning hasn't been a playoff-caliber quarterback for most of the season. The Giants need to do something about that, fast. Based on some film study and a dive into the statistics in the Football Outsiders database, here are some things they should try.

Scrap the OBJ Bombs

Manning-to-Beckham bombs sound like a great idea in theory. But against real-life opponents, Beckham brings both his defender and a deep safety with him on every vertical route, forcing Manning to attempt a pinpoint pass into a tight window that rarely finds its target.

Target	Att	Comp	Yards	TD	Int
Beckham	19	4	193	1	1
Cruz/Shepard	16	7	239	1	1
Others	11	2	77	1	1

As the table shows, Manning has been much more effective throwing deep (25-plus yards) to Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz than to Beckham. Generally, the coverage is looser and the margin for error a little greater on those passes.

Unless the Packers or some later opponent falls asleep and leaves Beckham isolated in one-on-one coverage against a cornerback who cannot handle him, Manning should look elsewhere on his deep passes. But no playoff team is going to fall asleep and give Beckham many of those opportunities.

Shoot for the Slant-and-Go

Instead of launching bombs, Manning should focus on passes to Beckham that combine high success rate with high big-play potential: slants, shallow crosses and medium-range "square-in" routes. These are easy throws for Manning that allow Beckham to get away from double coverage and generate some of those yummy yards after catch.

Manning and Beckham are 33-of-49 for 514 yards on passes labeled "short middle" (less than 15 yards in air length) in the official play-by-play, according to the Football Outsiders database. Many of Beckham's most memorable highlights of 2016, including catch-and-zoom touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys, resulted when he probed the middle of the field instead of engaging in duels/personality conflicts against the league's top cornerbacks. Even if he doesn't outrun the entire defense, Beckham can be counted on to turn short drag routes into 10- to 15-yard gains.

The Giants playbook is loaded with plays that hide Beckham as an inside receiver and let him work underneath. Head coach Ben McAdoo should flood his game plans with them throughout the playoffs.

Beckham, Decoy

When Beckham goes in motion, lines up in the backfield or fakes an end-around, a large chunk of the defense follows him. The Giants need to use these wrinkles more often. In the last meeting with the Packers, Paul Perkins caught a 13-yard screen pass that was set up by a fake end-around to Beckham. That was a good idea. Other attempts to force-feed Beckham via trickery in that game (including an insane option pass) weren't very good ideas. The threat that Beckham might do something zany is more effective than the actual zaniness.

Decoy plays are a great way to use Manning's experience to compensate for his accuracy. Something as simple as a convincing shoulder fake off a slant, followed by a delayed handoff or dump-off in the opposite direction, could catch the Packers defense over-pursuing, opening up either a running lane or an easy passing window.

Rethink 3rd-and-Medium

On third down with between four and nine yards to go, Manning is 45-of-93 for just 204 yards, with four interceptions, five sacks and just 24 first downs. Nothing Manning and the Giants try to do on 3rd-and-medium really works. While there are no obvious solutions to this problem, one thing will certainly help…

Stop Trying to Make Will Tye Happen

Corey Perrine/Getty Images

The Giants have had a blind spot at tight end since they parted ways with Jeremy Shockey after the 2007 season. Every year, they get weaker and make weirder choices at the position. They became enamored with Tye this year when Larry Donnell suffered an early-season concussion. Tye is a lumbering runner with no obvious route-running or pass-catching chops, yet he averages more than four targets per game, often getting opportunities in crucial situations.

When targeting Tye on 3rd-and-medium, Manning is 4-of-9 with two first downs and two interceptions this season, including that pick-six against Philadelphia. There's no good reason for any Giants tight end to be running pass routes on third downs, especially if the Giants want to…

Use Tight Ends in Pass Protection (If at All)

Giants tackles Ereck Flowers and Bobby Hart are turnstiles. Yet Giants tight ends aren't asked to pass-protect very often. According to Pro Football Focus, Tye has pass-blocked on just 24 snaps, Donnell 18 and third tight end Jerell Adams on eight. To put those figures in perspective, Travis Kelce—the centerpiece of the Kansas City Chiefs passing game—has pass-blocked 33 times while his backups have 47 times, even though the Chiefs dropped back to pass 40 fewer times than the Giants this season.

Manning would get better protection if his tight ends stayed in to block. He would also have one less unappealing pass target. Running backs Paul Perkins and Rashad Jennings could then get more involved in the passing game. Or McAdoo could just minimize the roles of his tight ends and give more opportunities to the playmaker he has kept stapled to the bench.

Remember Dwayne Harris

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Harris, the Giants' all-purpose special teamer, caught 36 passes for 396 yards and four touchdowns last season. This year, he has received scattered offensive snaps per game, usually on running plays, when not anchoring the return and coverage units.

Harris isn't exactly Beckham. He's a situational slot receiver at most. But he's both physical and shifty, the kind of player who can cause trouble underneath when opponents are worried about Beckham and Shepard.

Throw Harris a screen when Beckham is on the other side of the field. Or throw Beckham the screen with the pesky Harris blocking. Anything is preferable to more targets for the tight ends.

Don't Wait for 'Playoff Manning'

We all know about "Playoff Manning," the guy who follows disappointing regular seasons by outdueling Rodgers in the playoffs and Brady in the Super Bowl once per presidential administration.

People forget that Playoff Manning also threw two interceptions in a loss to a very ordinary Eagles team in the 2008 playoffs. The bad Manning often finds his way into the postseason too. Five years have also passed since the last round of postseason magic, when Manning's Giants beat the Alex Smith 49ers in 2011. A lot of NFL history has happened since then.

McAdoo and the Giants aren't going to lapse into magical thinking and assume everyone will suddenly get better in the playoffs. But they also cannot pretend they can keep beating top competition by 10-7 and 17-6 scores. Opponents have figured out how to get the worst from Manning. They know they can pressure the edge and double Beckham deep. The Giants defense is going to crack one of these days, maybe against a scorching-hot Rodgers on Sunday.

Manning has done what he needed to do before. But the way he has played lately, getting good at the right time may be harder than ever.