Miami Heat Have Silver Linings to Find During Midseason's Dark Days
MIAMI — The Heat are living the painful life of NBA rebuilders.
Medical maladies have stripped them of their best player (Chris Bosh) and their most prized prospect (Justise Winslow). An exodus of elite talent—first LeBron James in 2014, then Dwyane Wade this past summer—has left this transitional organization clinging to future hopes while laboring through a present composed of good-not-great leaders, still-developing prospects and roster-filling vagabonds.
But neither lowered expectations nor draft lottery hopes can mask the ugliness of their descent. They own the league's third-lowest winning percentage (.297), a bottom-third net efficiency (minus-3.2) and more losing streaks of at least five games (three) than they suffered over the previous eight seasons combined (two).
Yet, this isn't a wasted campaign. By looking beyond the mountain of losses, one can find some relief to cushion the on-court agony.
Fast-Tracking Development
Miami's primary objective is the maturation of its core four: Winslow, Hassan Whiteside, Tyler Johnson and Josh Richardson. The Heat's new roster dynamics pressed all four into prominent positions, and each seized his opportunity in his own way.
Winslow made his mark as a jack of all trades, before his development was delayed indefinitely: The Heat announced the 20-year-old sophomore will undergo surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder that will likely end his season.
Prior to the ailment, his progress didn't always show up in the box score—due in large part to his abysmal 35.4 field-goal percentage—but his contributions were clear to the discerning eye.
The Heat (11-26 after Wednesday's win over the Sacramento Kings) fared 4.3 points better per 100 possessions with Winslow than without, a mark only reserve big man Willie Reed (plus-6.6) topped. Winslow's versatility put him in a constantly changing role, and his numbers fluctuated the same. But he had nights where it all came together, none greater than a 23-point, 13-rebound gem against the Los Angeles Lakers on Dec. 22.
Yet for all Winslow's gluelike qualities, Whiteside is the foundation. The Heat's center has a team-leading 15.5 player impact estimate that's tied for 21st overall (minimum 20 games). He holds the league's top spot in rebounds (14.3 per game) and top-five standings in blocks (2.2, fifth) and double-doubles (24, tied for fourth).
"He's learning how to impact winning," Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said. "He's really starting to embrace how important he is to this team."
For Whiteside to operate at optimal efficiency, there has to be space. The Heat have struggled with that so far this season, but they have some blue-chip youngsters on the wing.
Richardson battled through early injuries and emerged as a more complete player than the three-and-D specialist who caught fire late last season.
The 6'6" swingman has moved around the perimeter, flashing newfound confidence and competence as a primary creator. Over his past six outings, he's set or matched his career highs in points (22), assists (eight, twice), rebounds (eight) and steals (four), while averaging 15.8 points (on 44.8 percent shooting), 4.7 assists (against 2.0 turnovers) and 2.0 steals.
"I think once I was confident running the team and knowing the plays, I think I [became] a solid point guard for this team," Richardson said.
Johnson, another combo guard, has done what he can to validate his new eight-figure salary. His stats are up across the board, and he's proved to be one of the league's top scoring reserves (13.9, fifth among subs with at least 20 appearances).
"You can put him on the court, and he knows how to have an impact," Spoelstra said. "He's comfortable now playing either position—on the ball or off the ball. That kind of versatility is important."
Dragon's Value Rising
The jury's still out on whether Goran Dragic is a long-term keeper or a trade chip to open the next chapter. But the longer he looks capable of filling either role, the more value he holds.
He gives this group the focal point it needs with Bosh out of the picture and Wade in Chicago. Dragic leads the Heat in points (19) and assists (6.8), and the only time he averaged more combined was during his 2013-14 All-NBA third-team campaign with the Phoenix Suns.
"I feel like I'm back," Dragic said, "back to my old days."
Even if the 30-year-old's timeline doesn't seem to mesh with the rest of this core, he's a useful player to have around. His uptempo style complements the youngsters' athleticism, and his basketball mind gives them guidance.
"He's doing a lot more talking behind the scenes in the locker room and in the huddles that you guys don't get to see," Winslow said. "He's been a great leader for us."
Dragic could be an even better trade asset as a relatively cheap ($35 million over the next two seasons) plug-and-play option for a win-now buyer. But that's assuming the Heat would consider selling and find the right compensation on the trade market.
Fruitful Bargain Bin
With the NBA's showering billions down on the 2016 free-agent class, discount deals were almost impossible to find. But Miami managed to pull three players from the clearance rack who have all outperformed their contracts.
James Johnson has produced the most dramatic climb. The 29-year-old journeyman arrived on a one-year, $4 million deal and has since set personal bests in points (11.4), rebounds (5.0), assists (2.6) and three-point percentage (38.5), all while holding opponents 7.7 points below their normal field-goal percentages.
"I've just perfected my craft, grew up a little bit mentally, fixed my body thanks to the Miami Heat," Johnson said. "From there, I'm starting to flourish. Everything I could do, now I'm doing it faster, now I'm doing it stronger, and now I'm doing it longer."
Rodney McGruder and Willie Reed also fit the bill at a combined price of just more than $1.5 million. McGruder has played 33 games and made 20 starts (both third on the team), injecting energy and sound instincts. Reed has nestled into a comfortable reserve role while flashing his upside during Tuesday's 22-point, 18-rebound eruption in place of Whiteside.
"He comes to play every night with effort and energy," team captain Udonis Haslem said of Reed. "And when you get a guy with that size and that length, that plays with effort and energy, in this league you can put up those kind of numbers."
Heat Insider's Notebook
All-Star Streak in Jeopardy
Ever since Wade's initial appearance in the 2005 NBA All-Star Game, the Heat have had at least one representative at the midseason classic.
That run—the Eastern Conference's current longest—could be coming to an end. Miami's two potential candidates (Dragic and Whiteside) both face uphill battles to make it.
The East employed five guards at last season's event, and four have the numbers to return: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Isaiah Thomas and John Wall.
Wade is the one exception, though he'll garner more than a few legacy votes. Moving beyond that group, Dragic still has to compete with the likes of Kemba Walker and Bradley Beal, both of whom surpass the Dragon in scoring and team success.
Whiteside has the better chance, as his numbers grade out as elite in multiple categories. But his own All-Star path is murky. Returning All-Stars James, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony and Jimmy Butler all look like locks. The same goes for should-be first-timer Giannis Antetokounmpo.
That leaves Whiteside fighting for one of the final spots with Kristaps Porzingis, Andre Drummond, Kevin Love, Joel Embiid and Al Horford, among others. Whiteside has the stats to make it, but he'll be saddled by Miami's bottom-feeder status.
Searching for a Closer
The Heat have just seven double-digit losses on the season. That's the fewest of any team outside the Eastern Conference playoff picture and the same or less than seven (four in the East) current postseason participants.
Miami has entered clutch situations—final five minutes with a margin of five points or fewer—23 times already (tied for the fourth-most). The problem is it self-destructs in those situations with an anemic minus-19.2 net efficiency (27th).
"We have been there down the stretch," Spoelstra said. "We just need to figure out how to close games."
Some of this is expected with a rotation so young, particularly one besieged by injury. But the bigger issue is the lack of an offensive identity. Miami can't go to its bread and butter because it doesn't have any.
Whiteside has publicly pleaded for more crunch-time touches, but he's hounded by defenders and incapable of consistently creating out of the post (14th percentile on post-ups). That same congestion limits his opportunities out of pick-and-roll screens and tightens Dragic's driving lanes.
| Spot-Up | 814 | 0.91 | 3.4 |
| PNR Ball-Handler | 668 | 0.73 | 3.4 |
| Transition | 501 | 1.08 | 34.5 |
| Isolation | 281 | 0.80 | 17.2 |
| Cut | 276 | 1.12 | 6.9 |
| PNR Roll Man | 250 | 1.04 | 55.2 |
There isn't a simple solution to this issue and won't be one until the Heat acquire (or somehow develop) a go-to scorer and/or additional space outside.
Given the unlikelihood of that happening this season, it's tough to envision Miami improving its position—usually within arm's reach of victory but rarely able to seal the deal.
All quotes obtained firsthand. Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com and accurate through Jan. 4. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
Zach Buckley covers the Miami Heat for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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