Can the New England Patriots Survive Another Rob Gronkowski Absence?
If the New England Patriots are going to reach their seventh Super Bowl in the last 16 years, they'll likely have to do so without the world's best tight end.
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Rob Gronkowski is expected to miss two months after he undergoes back surgery on Friday, leaving quarterback Tom Brady without his top weapon for the remainder of the regular season and likely most, if not all of the playoffs.
Are the Pats doomed without Gronk? Most of us know better by now than to count Bill Belichick and Co. out, regardless of the circumstances. This, after all, is a team that went 11-5 without Brady himself in 2008 and has fared well without Gronkowski in the past.
That said, the challenge just became a hell of a lot more daunting for a flawed and aging New England team.
Don't Lay Them to Rest
The Patriots have proved time and again they can win with or without almost anybody, including their three-time first-team All-Pro tight end.
Dating back to the start of 2012, Gronkowski has been either inactive or limited (playing less than 70 percent of New England's offensive snaps) for 27 regular-season games. In those games, the Pats are 21-6 (.778) and have averaged 26.4 points per game.
During that same span, Gronk has been active and has played a strong majority of offensive snaps in 47 regular-season games. In those games, the Pats are 36-11 (.766) and have averaged 32.0 points per game.
(Excluded from both samples is the final game of the 2014 regular season, when the Patriots rested Gronk and many other key players.)
| When Gronk is out or limited | 21-6 (.778) | 26.4 |
| When Gronk is fully healthy | 36-11 (.766) | 32.0 |
So yes, they've won just as often during the regular season with a healthy Gronk as they have without a healthy Gronk, but they score nearly six fewer points per outing.
But in 2016 alone, they're 5-0 with Gronk either out or limited and are averaging 26.6 points per game under those circumstances. With him playing most offensive snaps, they're 4-2 and averaging 26.7 points per game.
This year, they've been better without him than with him. And historically, his absence has cost them a handful of points per game but hasn't cost them in the win column.
But January Is a Different Story
However, New England has one goal at this point, so knowing that the Pats should still win the division and earn a first-round bye without Gronkowski won't conjure solace. Can this team get to the Super Bowl without him? Can they win it?
In this case, the precedents indicate New England could be in trouble.
With a healthy Gronkowski in 2011 and 2014, the Patriots made Super Bowl runs. They lost Super Bowl XLVI to the New York Giants in 2011, but only after Gronk caught 15 passes for 232 yards and three touchdowns in two playoff victories. And they won it all in 2014, with Gronk catching touchdown passes in all three of their playoff matchups.
And with a healthy Gronk in 2015, New England fell just three points short of making it to the Super Bowl again. He had 15 receptions for 227 yards and three touchdowns in two playoff games, and the Patriots lost a close AFC Championship Game to the eventual Super Bowl champ Denver Broncos.
But without a healthy Gronkowski in 2012, the Pats scored just 13 points in a one-sided AFC Championship Game loss at home to the Baltimore Ravens. And without Gronk again the next year, they scored just 16 points in a double-digit AFC Championship Game loss to the Broncos.
| 2011 | Yes | Lost Super Bowl |
| 2012 | No | Lost AFC title game by 15 |
| 2013 | No | Lost AFC title game by 10 |
| 2014 | Yes | Won Super Bowl |
| 2015 | Yes | Lost AFC title game by 2 |
In summary, New England's best three playoff runs in the last five years have come with Gronkowski healthy, and its worst two runs have come with him either injured or severely limited.
That's probably not a coincidence.
Momentum Wasn't on Their Side to Begin With
This New England team hasn't been itself of late anyway. Quarterback Tom Brady—the league's oldest position player—has been dealing with a knee injury and the offense hasn't been as crisp.
In Brady's first four games back from his month-long, season-opening suspension, the Pats went 4-0 while averaging 34.0 points per game and Brady had a passer rating of 133.9. But since then, New England is 2-1 with two less-than-inspiring victories over mediocre opponents, the offense is averaging 25.3 points per game and Brady's passer rating has dropped off to 97.8.
The fact Gronkowski missed virtually two of those three games (he played just seven snaps last week against the New York Jets) is probably a factor, but Brady's condition can't be ignored. The 39-year-old experienced a similar decline in production around the same time last season. He had 115.8 rating during the first seven games of the year, but that plummeted to 90.4 over the final nine weeks. And he averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt while posting a 76.6 rating in the playoffs.
| 1-8 | 69%, 20 TD/1 INT, 8.3 YPA, 115.8 rating | 73%, 12 TD/0 INT, 9.8 YPA, 133.9 rating |
| 9-17 | 61%, 16 TD/6 INT, 7.0 YPA, 90.4 rating | 63%, 6 TD/1 INT, 7.2 YPA, 97.8 rating |
It looks as though that's happening again, and this time he won't have Gronkowski to at least make life as an old quarterback a little easier.
It helps that the receiving corps is healthier than it was down the stretch last season, when Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola both missed time in December. But Gronk is undoubtedly the most important offensive weapon New England has. The offensive line is good, not great. The running game is averaging a so-so 4.0 yards per carry. The defense has been good, but nobody should write home about giving up only 22.5 points per game to the Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Jets.
In the last nine months, they've traded away two of their most talented defensive players in Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. That unit remains an asset, but it will be relying heavily on guys like Chris Long, Jabaal Sheard and Shea McClellin to play key roles while remaining healthy.
To get back to the Super Bowl, the Patriots will still have to outscore opponents. This is not a defensive juggernaut, nor is it a young or healthy team. With a pad in place, they'll survive a schedule that includes three home games during the final five weeks in order to enter January a division champion, and probably with a first-round bye.
But without Gronkowski, that might be the peak.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.
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