Despite Consecutive Losses, It's Not Time to Hit Panic Button on Atlanta Falcons

I completely get why Atlanta Falcons fans might feel the need to do it. I understand why, after a second consecutive heartbreaking loss, they may be reaching for brown paper bags in order to prevent or control hyperventilation.

And I don't blame them for experiencing fears of impending doom after their team suffered its second home loss of the season Sunday, to a team with a losing record no less.

Why might they hit the panic button despite the fact 4-3 Atlanta still leads the NFC South? 

Because the Falcons so easily could be 6-1 right now. And because this is a team that started the 2015 season with six wins in seven games before the wheels came off and their season went up in flames, generated by a six-game midseason losing streak. 

Season	First 5 games	Next 11 games
2014	2-3	4-7
2015	5-0	3-8
2016	4-1	0-2

Franchise quarterback Matt Ryan entered Sunday's game against the San Diego Chargers as the NFL's highest-rated passer, while All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones led the league in receiving yards. The running game had been fantastic, the offensive line had been solid, and even the oft-maligned pass rush had come around for a defense that was no longer looking like an Achilles' heel. 

None of that has changed, but the fact is the Falcons were defeated in a home game Sunday by a losing team despite possessing a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter. And that came just one week after they blew a seven-point fourth-quarter lead in Seattle. 

Ryan's last three games have been the lowest-rated performances of his season, and against the Chargers, he threw a fourth-quarter interception for the second straight week. Week 7's pick led directly to the Seattle Seahawks' game-winning field goal. Sunday's led directly to San Diego's game-tying kick. 

The question, though, is whether Ryan and the Falcons have begun to fall from the same midseason cliff that killed them a year ago—and to an extent the year prior, when they lost five straight after starting 2-1—or whether they just hit a speed bump en route to what could be an easy NFC South title. 

And while parallels can be drawn between last year's start and this year's start, the reality is it's far too early to conclude that the Falcons are destined to once again plummet out of contention in 2016. 

Quarterback	Picks
1. M. Ryan	8
1. R. Fitzpatrick	8
3. D. Carr	7
4. M. Mariota	5
4. B. Bortles	5

It's far from ideal that Ryan has thrown fourth-quarter picks in consecutive close games, mainly because he made that mistake a tied-for-league-high six times last season. But context is important:

• Ryan never should have forced a throw toward Jones on his interception in the final few minutes of regulation Sunday, especially on first down with no pressure in the pocket and with Atlanta leading by a field goal. But that might never have happened had Jones been awarded a catch on a deep ball that appeared as though it was caught to start that drive. And it was only 1st-and-20 because Atlanta took back-to-back false-start penalties prior to that snap. Ryan made a mistake, but the circumstances didn't help. 
• Ryan's fourth-quarter pick in Seattle came off a deflection. The pass to Jones could have been a tad better, but tough luck played a role. And that might not have mattered had the officials not missed a blatant defensive pass-interference penalty that should have moved Atlanta into field-goal range with 90 seconds to play in a game that they trailed by two. 

These sound like excuses for the Falcons, but what's important here is when you take those circumstances into consideration, you simply don't have enough evidence that Ryan and the Falcons are choking.

They made too many mistakes in crunch time in their last two games, but that doesn't undo the fact they scored 80 points in back-to-back road victories over the Oakland Raiders and New Orleans Saints, or the fact they followed that up by outscoring the defending conference champion Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos by a combined 22 points in consecutive victories.

The veteran Falcons have to learn from these losses because they're better off suffering them now than in December or January. And it's a good sign that we're a week short of the midway point and they've yet to lose a game by more than a score. 

I know. I know. After that 6-1 start last year, each of Atlanta's next three losses came by three or fewer points. And sure, Ryan's numbers also began to nosedive in October and November after a hot start last season. So I can see how this might feel like 2015 all over again.

But at no point last season did Ryan have a passer rating above 101.2. He's second in the league this year (behind Tom Brady) by a hefty margin, with a 113.6 rating. And at no point last term did the toothless Atlanta defense average more than 1.4 sacks per game. This year, they're at 2.1. 

Jones is on pace to finish with the second-highest single-season receiving yards mark in NFL history (1,897), eclipsing his own career best from last season (1,871). Yet they're throwing less because backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have been superb.

When the ship was sinking last year, they were losing at home to the Andrew Luck-less Indianapolis Colts, on the road to the 2-6 San Francisco 49ers and both at home and on the road to the defensively inept Saints. 

That's a little less difficult than the Seahawks in Seattle and a Chargers team that entered Week 7 with the league's fourth-highest-rated passer, Philip Rivers, and is undoubtedly better than its 3-4 record. 

That's what fills the gap that separates perception from reality. 

This Falcons team is different and better. That doesn't mean they aren't capable of crashing, but it makes it much less likely that a tough-luck rut in October is the beginning of another collapse. 

So don't panic yet. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon