2016-17 NBA Season Predictions for Each Golden State Warriors Player

The Golden State Warriors swapped out two starters and reworked their reserve unit over the offseason. The final result? They'll start this regular season where they finished the last one, prominently perched atop the NBA.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

The Dubs compiled a league-best 6-1 mark during the preseason, thrashing opponents by an average of 11.1 points per game. They seamlessly worked Kevin Durant and Zaza Pachulia into the opening group, and their bench received unlikely boosts from second-rounder Patrick McCaw and camp invite-turned-roster member JaVale McGee.

The preseason dominance—while encouraging, even if anticipated—yields no tangible reward, but there's information to extract. The allocation of minutes and shots offers insight into head coach Steve Kerr's preferred pecking order, which adds clarity to our crystal-ball prognostications.

We have ranked all 15 players based on their likely rotation role to start the season.

End of Bench

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

15. Damian Jones, C

No traditional Warriors center has a brighter future than Damian Jones—the only one of the four who is signed beyond this season. But none has a murkier present, as the 30th overall pick has been sidelined by a torn right pectoral that could keep him out of action into December, per Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle.

When healthy, Jones can add youth and athleticism to a center rotation lacking both. His developing mid-range game intrigues as yet another space-creator for this offense. But he's trapped behind veterans on a championship-or-bust club. He'll likely bide his time in the NBA Development League and perform mop-up duty if ever on the big stage.

Predicted per-game stats: 2.3 points, 2.1 rebounds, 0.4 blocks

14. Anderson Varejao, C

Anderson Varejao must be an elite locker-room presence, because the 34-year-old has nearly exhausted his supply of on-court value. He might hustle his way into an extra possession or flop his way to a drawn charge, but his limitations relegate him to an emergency-only role.

Predicted per-game stats: 2.4 points, 1.8 rebounds, 0.7 assists

13. James Michael McAdoo, PF

If the Dubs built a mold of their preferred player, the dimensions would resemble James Michael McAdoo's—he's 6'9" with a 7'2" wingspan and enough athleticism to chase around perimeter players. He's not offensively equipped for more than a garbage man's role, unfortunately, but with so many white-collar studs on the roster, this team could use some grit here and there.

Predicted per-game stats: 2.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, 0.5 blocks

12. JaVale McGee, C

Golden State's need for frontcourt athleticism and rim protection was great enough to roll the dice on the athletic but aloof JaVale McGee. His preseason was productive enough for him to earn a seat at the main table—5.2 points (on 59.1 percent shooting), 3.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in just 10 minutes per night.

"He gives us something that we don't have with our other centers, just with that ability to catch a lob and finish," Kerr told reporters. "I think he has the potential to help us."

The Dubs have enough depth that they don't need to live with McGee's mistakes. If he's competing for another Shaqtin' A Fool MVP, he'll be buried on the bench. But if he stays in his lane as a shot-blocker and rim-runner, he should see floor time more often than not.

Predicted per-game stats: 4.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.0 blocks

11. Ian Clark, SG

It's hard to imagine Ian Clark failed any of his preseason assignments. The fourth-year scoring guard averaged 8.3 points in only 16.2 minutes per game—that's 18.4 per 36 minutes—while converting half of his looks from the field and outside.

And yet, that still doesn't seem to have propelled him within the top 10. He wasn't going to jump in front of Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala on the wings, but now it looks like McCaw has leapfrogged him. Clark will still get work at both guard spots—quite possibly a decent amount given how many games the Dubs might control after three quarters.

Predicted per-game stats: 4.9 points, 1.1 assists, 1.4 rebounds

Rotation Reserves

Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images

10. Kevon Looney, PF

Kevon Looney essentially redshirted his rookie season, sandwiching five brief appearances between surgeries on both hips. That didn't do much for his on-court development, but it allowed him to learn the Warriors system—and, more importantly, find his place in it.

He logged 73 minutes during the preseason, trailing only David West among reserve bigs. Looney, who flashed a versatile skill set at UCLA, showed value as an active, aggressive rebounder. He paced the Dubs with 13.4 boards per 36 minutes, a number that should keep him entrenched in the rotation, given that two of last season's top three rebounders are no longer with the team.

Predicted per-game stats: 5.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 0.8 assists

9. Patrick McCaw, SG

General manager Bob Myers struck second-round gold again. Patrick McCaw, the 38th pick in June, may have had the best preseason of all rookie guards. He averaged 8.4 points and 2.1 assists in 20.1 minutes per game while shooting above 45 percent from the field, 40 percent from distance and 90 percent at the line. The 6'7" 20-year-old already passes and defends like a seasoned Warriors wing.

"He's picked up everything so easy," Kerr told KNBR's Tolbert & Lund (via CSN Bay Area). "He reminds me a lot of Andre and Shaun Livingston, and not only with his built, but with his feel for the game."

McCaw's game is built around versatility, so it's hard to think of a better landing spot. He can operate on or off the ball, spot-up or slash, and cycle through defensive assignments without a hitch. Assuming the superstars around him hide his growing pains, he could shine in both volume and efficiency.

Predicted per-game stats: 6.1 points, 1.4 assists, 2.1 rebounds, 1.0 steals

8. David West, PF/C

David West's days as an All-Star are gone. So are the oversized paychecks, though that part was his own choice. But the steely vet is a plug-and-play option for any contender—someone smart, skilled and selfless enough to identify the right role and stay in it. He'll lead the second-team frontcourt with interior toughness, savvy passing, all the shot blocking he can provide and bail-out scoring from the low post.

Predicted per-game stats: 7.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 blocks

7. Shaun Livingston, PG

The 6'7" Shaun Livingston is the kind of player who gives reliable minutes as a super-sub but won't miss a beat in spot starts. He never strays outside his lane, which is why he owns a 51.7 field-goal percentage and an assist-to-turnover ratio of nearly 3-to-1 over two seasons with Golden State. And his ability to guard multiple positions helps key this switch-happy scheme. 

Predicted per-game stats: 6.3 points, 3.2 assists, 2.3 rebounds, 0.6 steals

6. Andre Iguodala, SF

The stat sheet has always struggled to capture Andre Iguodala's impact. So much of his it rests at the defensive end—where analytics are still being ironed out—that the untrained eye can overlook his greatest contributions.

"He's always kind of our unsung hero," Kerr said, per NBA.com's Fran Blinebury. "He never has the numbers that jump out at you in the box score, so people don't write about him or show him much on the highlights. But he's a phenomenal defensive player, and he's an incredibly intelligent player."

Iguodala can score (three games with 20-plus points last season), distribute (18 with five-plus assists) and rebound (16 with six or more boards), though the team doesn't ask him to do any of the above consistently. He has an innate ability to feel out where he's needed, which helps the Dubs but doesn't do a lot for his individual numbers.

Predicted per-game stats: 6.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.1 steals

Starting C: Zaza Pachulia

Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty Images

Zaza Pachulia isn't Andrew Bogut.

Between Bogut's interior defense and quarterbacking skills, the Warriors made some concessions by letting him leave (albeit no-brainer concessions when the payoff is Durant). But adding Pachulia meant keeping a big bruiser under the basket; Golden State wouldn't presumably sacrifice anything on the glass, plus it wouldn't have to shield its new center from the foul line.

All of that could still be true. But Pachulia needs more time to get comfortable.

"Golden State's constant movement is designed to disorient the opposition but can have a similar effect on a newly initiated Warrior. Pachulia is a good passer but not yet at ease in this whirling chaos," wrote ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss. "His finishing issues are also a concern in a situation that will give him plenty of opportunities."

This shouldn't raise any alarms, though. Even at his best, Bogut was a part-time player (20.7 minutes per game last season). Pachulia will be the same. As long as he's clogging the defensive middle and cleaning the glass, Golden State will get what it needs from this position.

Predicted per-game stats: 7.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 steals

Starting PF: Draymond Green

Garrett Ellwood/Getty Images

There are reasons Draymond Green sent, in his words, "too many text messages" to Durant during his free-agent recruitment, according to DraftKings (via Alysha Tsuji of For The Win). There are reasons Green ripped Paul Pierce after the 39-year-old criticized Durant's decision.

Why? Because Durant makes the Dubs more dangerous. And on paper, the scoring savant should simplify things for Green. Durant can dismantle a defense while running the pick-and-roll; Green is an expert screen-setter. Durant can demand extra defense out of isolations and post-ups; Green is a cerebral slasher and capable spot-up shooter.

Given his rising shot quality, Green could be at his most efficient this season. But based on what we've seen this preseason, he'll lose volume in the process. He attempted just 7.7 shots per 36 minutes, fewer than he's fired up in any of his four NBA campaigns. His 6.2 assists per 36 minutes lag well behind last season's average of 7.7.

"He is the key to making this work because he's the key to our defense and all of a sudden he's going to be touching the ball a little bit less often," Kerr said, per Janie McCauley of the Associated Press. "That's just simple math because KD is going to get the ball a lot more than Harrison (Barnes) did."

If the Dubs play smaller more often than last year, Green could elevate his blocks and boards. And even if his number of passes decreases, the percentage of them leading to assists could jump. He might not have 13 triple-doubles again, but he should touch enough stat categories to keep his All-Star spot.

Predicted per-game stats: 10.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.5 blocks

Starting SF: Kevin Durant

Noah Graham/Getty Images

Between Durant's stunning decision during July and the preseason opener in October, it was fun to imagine how the four-time scoring champ might adapt to his new digs. With more structure and scoring help than he had in OKC, the possibilities seemed endless.

But it was simpler for the offensive machine himself: He switched uniforms, but the adjustments may have ended there.

"I impose my will by scoring when we need it," he told reporters. "I could do the other things, but I'm highlighted by my scoring and how efficient I can put the ball in the basket and try to search out good shots for our group. ... I've been playing the same way I've always played my whole life."

That was a tough explanation to buy during Durant's nine-point, 2-of-9 shooting debut. Then he scored 21 points on 10 shots the next time out, and it made perfect sense. By preseason's end, his per-36-minute marks were strikingly similar to last season: 29.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.3 assists now; 28.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists then.

There could be enough touches in Golden State to keep his per-minute production mostly on par with his Hall of Fame-worthy career numbers, and he might climb to previously unseen efficiency heights. But one counting category will limit the rest: He's averaged 37.8 minutes per game for his career; the Warriors didn't have anyone average 35 last season.

Predicted per-game stats: 27.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.3 blocks

Starting SG: Klay Thompson

Noah Graham/Getty Images

Klay Thompson has never finished an NBA season with fewer points than the last. He doesn't see Durant's arrival as the automatic end to that streak, either.

"I'm not sacrificing [expletive], because my game isn't changing," Thompson told The Vertical's Shams Charania. "I'm still going to try to get buckets, hit shots, come off screens."

That wasn't just a killer quote. It's Thompson's actual guide to the 2016-17 season. In seven exhibition contests, he launched 18.4 field goals and 11.0 threes per 36 minutes. He logged all but nine of his minutes with at least one of Durant and Stephen Curry on the floor, per NBAWowy.com. During 2015-16, Thompson took 18.7 shots and 8.8 triples per 36.

That formula doesn't need to change. In fact, the Warriors may prefer it doesn't.

The more Thompson shoots, the more attention he takes from the defense and the less that can be paid to Curry and Durant. Not to mention, Thompson is a fiery threat in his own right, boasting a 59.4 true shooting percentage over the last two seasons, fourth-highest among all players who have scored 20-plus points per game.

He still won't assist much, since most of his plays call for a look at the basket. But his rebounding and steal totals could both get a lift if the Warriors lean harder on their small, swarming lineups.

Predicted per-game stats: 20.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 steals

Starting PG: Stephen Curry

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Stephen Curry had a record-setting 2015-16 season in more ways than one. En route to becoming the NBA's first unanimous MVP, he shattered his previous high with 402 threes—the previous record was 286—and was the first player to average at least 30 points while shooting 50 percent from the field, 40 percent outside and 90 percent at the line.

"He's in the prime of his career and will be for a few years and the way he's improving and the level he's playing at is...I think he's unlike anyone else," Steve Nash told Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News. "His ability to make shots and still handle the playmaking duties is historic. I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a player more skilled than him in the history of the game."

Curry is a once-in-a-generation talent. So what happens now that another once-in-a-generation talent is suiting up alongside him?

Some adjustment is needed. That means a little less scoring but a little more distributing and perhaps even better shooting numbers. His off-ball movements grow even more dangerous as teams can only watch him so closely. And his on-ball options grow with Durant, a career 27.4 points-per-game scorer, stepping into the role vacated by Harrison Barnes (career 10.1 points per game).

Curry won't repeat his magical campaign. It's possible no one ever will. But he's a lock for both the All-Star starting lineup and a top-five MVP finish (with a knockout puncher's chance of winning a third straight). His stats will still be special in ways no one else's are.

Predicted per-game stats: 24.5 points, 7.1 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 2.2 steals

Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.