Broncos Need Trevor Siemian Much More Than We Thought

Last year, the Denver Broncos rode a stout defense to a victory in Super Bowl 50, overcoming spotty play at quarterback along the way.

The thought was the same would hold true this season. Sure, second-year pro Trevor Siemian was unproven. But even if he fared no better than Brock Osweiler and Peyton Manning's shell the Broncos would run the ball, play defense and get back to the playoffs.

However, things haven't quite gone according to the script. Siemian's been better under center than most people expected him to be. The Denver ground game hasn't been as effective as we thought it would be.

And if last week's loss to the Atlanta Falcons was any indication, we vastly underestimated Siemian's importance to the Broncos where their title defense is concerned.

Heading into last week's home tilt with the Falcons, there wasn't a ton of concern regarding Siemian's absence. Yes, it was unfortunate that a sprained (non-throwing) shoulder was keeping him out, and the Falcons had played well enough to win three of their first four games.

But rookie Paxton Lynch played well in relief of Siemian the week before, and the Atlanta defense is nothing special. Their pass rush was nonexistent. Feed the ball to tailback C.J. Anderson, make a few throws where needed, turn the defense loose and get out of Sports Authority Field at Mile High with a win.

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The game didn't go at all according to that plan. Atlanta tailbacks Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman gashed the Denver defense for a staggering 286 total yards. An anemic Falcons pass rush exploded for six sacks. Lynch looked very much the part of a rookie quarterback. And the Broncos suffered their first loss of the season 23-16.

Contained within that loss were all the reasons why the Broncos just might need Siemian more than we originally believed.

The Broncos managed only 84 yards on the ground Sunday against an injury-ravaged Falcons defense, and 18 of those came courtesy of Lynch. Anderson is averaging a moribund 3.5 yards per carry so far this season, and he hasn't rushed for even 50 yards in a game since Week 2. Rookie Devontae Booker (6-23) was marginally better than Anderson (11-41), but neither was able to hit four yards a pop.

On it's face, the Denver run game this year hasn't been any better (or worse) than it was last season. The team ranks one spot higher (16th) on the ground than it did in 2015, but at 101.4 yards per game the Broncos are averaging about six fewer yards a contest.

The Broncos are also playing at a nearly identical level when it comes to opening holes for those backs. In 2015, Football Outsiders ranked the Broncos 17th in run blocking for the season. So far this year, the team ranks two spots higher.

In pass protection, however, it's been another story. Last year, the Broncos were ranked 13th in that regard, per FO. That number has free-fallen to 31st through five games in 2016. Denver's 15 sacks allowed is the third-most in the NFL.

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That shaky pass protection caused all sorts of problems for Lynch and the Broncos against the Falcons. In addition to those six sacks, Lynch was harassed on a number of other plays. He fumbled twice, threw an interception and converted only 25 percent of 16 third downs.

Yes, the Broncos were short-handed on the offensive line, and right tackle Ty Sambrailo (filling in for Donald Stephenson) allowed three of Atlanta's six sacks. But part of the blame also lies with Lynch, who committed a common mistake for young quarterbacks—he held the ball too long too many times.

It's a mistake Siemian hasn't made. In fact, Siemian hasn't made that many mistakes at all.

Player	Comp. %	PYPG	TD	INT	Rating	QBR
Siemian	67.3	206.0	6	3	99.6	78.9
Lynch	62.7	196.5	2	1	86.3	46.2

Through three games and change, Siemian has completed over two-thirds of his passes. His 8.2 yards per attempt ranks fifth among signal-callers with over 50 attempts. His 99.6 passer rating is 11th among that same group. His 12.1 yards per completed pass ranks eighth.

Has Siemian been Drew Brees or Andrew Luck? No. But he's been better than most expected, especially on longer throws—the sorts of throws a team struggling to run the ball desperately needs.

Given all that, it was welcome news when Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reported (via colleague Kevin Patra) that Siemian was expected to make his return against the San Diego Chargers Thursday night:

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My understanding is Trevor Siemian is expected to be the starter for the Broncos on Thursday night. That really was the plan going into Sunday. Have Paxton Lynch, the first-round quarterback, start, give Trevor Siemian a couple extra days to heal for the Chargers on Thursday night, and then let Siemian go back out there -- deal with some pain, yes -- and of course he does have that separated non-throwing shoulder, which can be painful, but not debilitating as it comes to being able to throw. Plus, it will also give Siemian a full week to prepare for the Chargers whereas Paxton Lynch, the first-rounder, would have had just a truncated week of preparation. So it seems, unless something changes over the next couple days, that it will be Siemian back in as the starter for Denver.

"

Siemian himself indicated to Nicki Jhabvala of the Denver Post Tuesday that he was making progress toward a return to action:

The news is doubly welcome after the Broncos were thrown an additional curveball this week. As Conor Orr of NFL.com reported, head coach Gary Kubiak will miss the Chargers game as he deals with a "complex migraine situation."

Special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis will oversee head coaching duties Thursday, while offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will call the offensive plays. General manager John Elway said he doesn't foresee the coaching shakeup being any sort of long-term issue.

"We're excited about Gary's future and I think what we heard last night is good, but I'm going to let Gary handle (speaking about his medical issue) when he comes back," Elway said.

That Kubiak should be fine is of course great news, but it's all the more reason why the Broncos need their starting quarterback back in action against the Bolts.

At the end of the day, these early-season bumps in the road are hardly cause for a Mile High panic attack. The Broncos will probably beat a San Diego team that finds a new and exciting way to lose on a weekly basis on Thursday night.

But over the past couple of weeks, and especially in the Atlanta game, we've learned a few things about the Broncos.

Denver isn't as good a running team at this point in the season as we expected them to be.

The personnel losses and injuries suffered by the Denver defense may be catching up to them. The Denver defense is still good (sixth in the NFL entering Week 6), but it may not be the otherworldly unit it was a year ago.

In other words, the Broncos need the passing game more than we thought they would in 2016.

And we've learned something else about the Broncos this year...

As goes Trevor Siemian, so goes that passing game.

Gary Davenport is an NFL analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter: @IDPSharks.