Golden State Warriors Complete 2016-17 Season Preview
Less than two minutes into the Golden State Warriors' second preseason game—a 45-point incineration of the Los Angeles Clippers on Oct. 4—it happened.
Stephen Curry jogged the ball up the left sideline in semi-transition as two Clipper defenders darted out to cover him a few feet beyond the three-point arc. Prudent, this was, as Curry's range in Oracle Arena extends to the 880 freeway a few hundred yards west of the building.
Curry attacked the frenzied double closeout, drew a third defender in the lane and casually flicked a pass to a wide-open Kevin Durant on the right wing. Curry didn't even watch Durant's shot go in as he circled back on defense.
If Curry's gravity freeing one of the best shooters alive for an easy three isn't unfair enough, consider the fact Durant, if he'd hesitated for a split second longer and drawn a frantic closeout from J.J. Redick, could have moved the ball to an uncovered Klay Thompson in the right corner.
This is the new reality for the Warriors: A totally uncontested Durant three will often be the second-best shot available.
Good luck, everyone.
Biggest Offseason Move
That photo's going to take some getting used to.
Seventy-three wins and a Finals fall helped motivate the Warriors to pull off one of the most significant free-agent moves in league history: letting Harrison Barnes go.
Oh, also, they signed Durant.
By adding KD to a roster that already had the two best shooters in the NBA, Golden State assured itself a terrifying offense and even more media attention than its historic season generated a year ago. Whatever new ground this remarkably talented group breaks will be very well documented.
Barnes vacated Durant's small forward spot, and Andrew Bogut had to go in order to free up the necessary cap space. Zaza Pachulia—Bogut's cheaper replacement—is close to a lateral move at center. He won't finish lobs or block shots, but Pachulia is a fine position defender who'll crash the offensive glass. Like Bogut, he'll shoot the ball as an absolute last resort—not the worst characteristic on a team with which three all-time elite marksmen will need their looks.
David West signed on for the minimum, still chasing a ring in Oakland after failing to snag one with the San Antonio Spurs. As the de facto Marreese Speights replacement, West brings toughness, smarts, underrated passing and a reliable mid-range jumper. He's a significant upgrade over the beloved-but-one-way Mo Buckets, who inked a free-agent deal with the Clippers.
Finally, the Warriors drafted Vanderbilt center Damian Jones at the end of the first round and UNLV wing Patrick McCaw in the second. The former could fill the departed Festus Ezeli's role once a torn pectoral heals, and the latter drew raves as a draft steal from the moment his name was called.
Head coach Steve Kerr likes the handle, defensive instincts and three-point shot he's seen from the rail-thin guard so far.
"From what I’ve seen in Summer League and the first couple days of practice, I wouldn’t hesitate to throw him out there in the heat of a game," Kerr told Monte Poole of CSNBayArea.com.
Rotation Breakdown
| Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia |
| Shaun Livingston | Patrick McCaw | Andre Iguodala | David West | Anderson Varejao |
| Ian Clark | Kevon Looney | James Michael McAdoo/Damian Jones/JaVale McGee |
The Warriors lost Bogut, Barnes, Ezeli, Speights, Leandro Barbosa and Brandon Rush in the summer, which has given rise to the myth that depth is now a concern.
Forget Bogut and Barnes in this analysis. They were starters, and by any objective measure, the combined impact of Durant and Pachulia (mostly because of the former) will exceed whatever the Warriors' previous center and small forward would have produced.
As for the reserves, both Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston—arguably the best bench tandem in the league—are still here. They give Golden State seven starting-caliber rotation players. West makes it eight.
If McCaw can provide 10 or 15 minutes of decent work against opposing backups, something he already looks fully capable of doing, he's a fine Barbosa replacement with a ton of upside. West will spend a lot of time at backup center, which will be fine against reserves. And the Warriors will go small when it matters anyway.
Remember, too, that any second-unit question marks seeing significant minutes will likely do so with one or two All-Stars on the court. It's a lot easier to get comfortable and play productive ball if defenses are so focused on Curry or Durant or Thompson that they forget about you.
Don't expect any Warriors starter to see more than 33 minutes per game, and count on the revamped Death Lineup, with Durant in place of Barnes, wringing the life out of late-game situations. If McCaw flounders or West proves incapable of manning the center spot for 15 minutes a night, maybe there's an issue here.
But the notion that the Warriors lack depth is misguided. This is one of the best benches in the league.
Reasons for Confidence
Is putting the ball in the basket important?
It is? OK. Great. The Warriors will be good at that.
Only four players took at least 1,000 shots and finished with an effective field-goal percentage above 56 percent last season. The Warriors have the top three, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
This collection of offensive talent could produce a season unlike any we've seen before. With three 50-40-90 candidates, including two of the nine-man group who have ever done it (Durant and Curry), the Warriors are sure to improve on their 2015-16 offensive rating, which ranked 12th in league history.
Larger numbers aside, the isolated strength is the Dubs' closing fivesome. Draymond Green is the league's most versatile defensive player. He unlocks the Death Lineup's potential as an undersized center.
Only now, with Durant replacing Barnes at power forward, the unit has more shot-blocking, better shooting, superior rebounding and, most critically, an even greater ability to switch assignments. Barnes was fine against larger foes, but he was overmatched against quicker guards. Durant's length and agility make him a far scarier weapon in the Warriors' switch-happy scheme.
What else is there to say? This team could wind up producing the greatest offense in NBA history while also fielding a closing group that will be impossible to score against. The season hasn't even started, and we're already running out of hyperbolic hype.
Reasons for Concern
The whole "there's only one basketball" thing is trite, and it only presents a problem if personal agendas trump team goals. These Warriors are a profoundly unselfish bunch, and in Green and Thompson, they have stars who essentially don't need to dribble to utilize their greatest gifts.
"I think you’ve seen these first two games that my game isn’t really going to change," Thompson told Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle. "I’m not a ball-dominant player. I’m most effective when I’m moving off the ball, moving freely and playing off my teammates."
He shot 10-of-20 from long range in his first two preseason games, firing almost exclusively off the catch. And if anything, Curry and Durant have been too deferential in looking for one another in the preseason. This is a non-issue.
Green's dual status as the most important and most combustible Warrior is, however, worth some worry.
His Finals suspension had a hand in swinging the series the wrong way, and his summer featured a late-night dust-up that resulted in a plea to a minor civil infraction, as well as a social media gaffe. All this after a well-publicized locker room incident with Kerr and a high-speed Snapchat during the 2015-16 season.
Bad judgment and incendiary competitiveness explain most of this, and while it's reasonable to ask him to tone things down, it's also dangerous. His ferocity gives the Warriors' their edge. A mellowed Green is a less effective Green.
He posted the highest single-season on-court plus-minus in Basketball-Reference's database, which goes back to 2001, producing a plus-1,070 last year. With production like that, it's tempting to say Green shouldn't change at all.
Still, the Warriors can't replace his versatility and fire. If he suffers an injury or can't rein in his wildest outbursts, Golden State might have a problem.
Player to Watch
McCaw is the pick here, mostly because we know everything we need to know about the other Warriors who'll make major impacts. The second-rounder is a relative unknown, but if he leverages his strengths—length, quickness, anticipation and court sense—he could see more reserve minutes than anyone outside of the top-three bench vets.
Draft Express' Mike Schmitz highlighted the skills that could get McCaw into the main rotation:
During summer league and preseason play, McCaw excelled as a catch-and-shoot weapon and as an initiator. With Iguodala and Livingston already entrenched as playmakers, McCaw's perimeter accuracy may determine how much time he sees. His basketball IQ has already given him an inside track on the backup shooting guard spot.
McCaw's sense of space and movement is "very uncommon" for a rookie, Kerr told Poole.
"But some guys just have that feel, instinctively, naturally," Kerr added. "You don’t even have to teach them. Some guys have feel. Some guys don’t. The first time you see them play, it’s easy to tell. That’s been the case with him."
Ian Clarke is a better standstill shooter, and if spotting up is all that matters, he could still beat McCaw for the gig behind Thompson. But "adventures" result whenever Clark tries to dribble or pass, while the 6'7" rookie's versatility and clear defensive advantage make him the more intriguing option.
If McCaw's three-point shot falls (he hit five treys in a summer league game against the Toronto Raptors and shot 36.7 percent in two years at UNLV), he'll play a lot.
Predictions
The Warriors should be the best team in the league and one of the best teams ever. Full stop.
Another 73 wins may be asking too much, especially as Golden State will be doing what it can to rest players who are coming off two straight seasons extended by Finals appearances. There will probably be slippage in defensive focus, and the offense will often cross the line between free-flowing and careless. But...whatever.
The sheer talent, experience, versatility and depth of the roster means cruising to a win total in the high 60s and the No. 1 seed in the West should be easy—particularly with the San Antonio Spurs losing Tim Duncan and the Oklahoma City Thunder giving the Warriors their best player.
Barring something totally unforeseen, the Dubs should win a ring.
Final Record: 71-11
Division Standing: First in Pacific
Playoff Berth: Yes
B/R Leaguewide Power Rankings Prediction: First
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
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