Milwaukee Bucks Complete 2016-17 Preview

The Golden State Warriors stormed into the BMO Harris Bradley Center on Dec. 12, with the NBA championship belt on their shoulders and a historic winning streak at their backs.

The Milwaukee Bucks lived up to their moniker by darting in front of the speeding superpower and stopping the Warriors with a 108-95 upset.

"It was a great win. Everyone knew how important it was," Bucks co-owner Marc Lasry told ESPN.com. "It's great since it gives the players more confidence and tells our fans that we have the potential to be one of the best teams if we play our game."

By season's end, the Bucks were still selling potential over production, having regressed from their surprise 2015 playoff run and sputtering to a 33-49 finish. But their upside was undeniable as one of only five teams—and the lone non-postseason participant—to defeat both the Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers. 

The Bucks have a surging star in Giannis Antetokounmpo, a possible scoring ace in Jabari Parker, suffocating length at every position and an experimental coach in Jason Kidd who's still testing how all the pieces fit. Their future is bright.

But the 2016-17 outlook is murky thanks to Khris Middleton's ruptured hamstring and a bottom-10 defense in desperate need of repair.

Biggest Offseason Move

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The Bucks did their heaviest offseason lifting on the home front, inking Antetokounmpo to a four-year, $100 million extension that falls just below his maximum salary. The 21-year-old left a little money on the table to help Milwaukee keep its young core together, sources told ESPN's Brian Windhorst.

And that's just one of the reasons ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton believes this pact will be among the NBA's best:

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Based on the development of similar players from my SCHOENE projection system and his rating in ESPN's real plus-minus, I project Antetokounmpo to provide 8.7 wins above replacement player (WARP) in 2017-18, the first year of his extension, and 9.3 WARP the following season.

On the open market, such production would be worth far more than the maximum salary. I estimate Antetokounmpo would be worth about $40 million a year in a world without limits on player salaries.

So getting Antetokounmpo signed to any kind of extension would have been good news for the Bucks. Getting him to take less than the max ... is a coup.

"

Before extending Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee focused its effort on finding more shooting. The team added Matthew Dellavedova, Mirza Teletovic and Jason Terry, who collectively hit 38.8 percent from three-point range last season—well above the Bucks' 22nd-ranked 34.5 percent conversion rate. Rookies Thon Maker and Malcolm Brogdon should both expand the newfound spacing.

Milwaukee's remade backcourt lost O.J. Mayo to a ban for violating the league's anti-drug program, while both Jerryd Bayless and Greivis Vasquez bolted in free agency. The Bucks also traded Tyler Ennis for Michael Beasley to cover Middleton's absence and continue hunting for wings on the trade market, league sources told ESPN.com's Marc Stein.

Rotation Breakdown

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Even with two of their three cornerstones still in play, the Bucks have little set in stone regarding a rotation.

Antetokounmpo will function offensively as a point guard. Despite standing 6'11", he has perimeter skills and a floor general's unselfishness. If he gets a lead on his defender, he's never more than a few long strides away from rocking the rim. But Milwaukee will keep a traditional point guard alongside him to provide secondary playmaking and handle the position's defensive responsibilities.

"Giannis is the point guard. But he's going to be announced as starting at forward," general manager John Hammond explained, per Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "We're going to announce someone at that guard position. ... If you go by the theory you are what you guard, and I do believe in that, someone has to guard that point guard."

Dellavedova is the obvious choice to draw that assignment. Parker will almost assuredly serve as a stretch 4, though there may be wiggle room since the Bucks are deeper up front than on the wing. Kidd said he likes starting Miles Plumlee and bringing Greg Monroe off the bench, and added that sophomore Rashad Vaughn would get the first crack at replacing Middleton, per Matt Velazquez of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Matthew Dellavedova	Rashad Vaughn	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Jabari Parker	Miles Plumlee
Michael Carter-Williams	Jason Terry	Michael Beasley	Mirza Teletovic	Greg Monroe
	Malcolm Brogdon	Steve Novak	Thon Maker	John Henson
	Khris Middleton

Kidd's knack for creativity will be key, because this isn't the easiest roster to deploy. Four of Milwaukee's five highest-paid players are either power forwards or centers, and that group doesn't include the starting 4, Parker. Barring a trade, Monroe, Henson and Teletovic all face a minutes crunch, and that's without Maker forcing his way onto the floor or someone like Beasley or Novak also playing as a stretch big.

The Bucks could use another trade to bulk up at shooting guard, because Middleton's injury leaves them without a comfortable starter there. Milwaukee can only go really old (Terry), inexperienced (Vaughn, Brogdon) or double up on point guards for now, though it can't big-game hunt on the trade market since Middleton is the long-term solution once he recovers.

Reasons for Confidence

Handing Antetokounmpo the offensive keys puts Milwaukee in a unique position. The NBA has never seen a weapon quite like this. He has the upside of "a longer, sleeker LeBron James," as NBA.com's Ian Thomsen put it. Antetokounmpo's size alone is unfair—6'11" with a 7'3" wingspan. When combined with his mobility and explosiveness, he's a walking cheat code.

And the Bucks are only beginning to take full advantage of his talents. Last season was his first averaging more than 32 minutes, and he joined LeBron and Kevin Durant as the only players to average at least 16 points, seven rebounds, four assists and 50 percent shooting. Even that undersells Antetokounmpo's ability, since his production didn't explode until Milwaukee embraced Point-Freak late in the season.

Antetokounmpo triple-doubled five times in 28 games after the All-Star break. Only Russell Westbrook, Draymond Green and Rajon Rondo tallied more over the entire campaign.

"He's just so long and his ability to get to the rim in a short amount of steps coming down the floor is very difficult to guard," Chicago Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg told reporters in March. "He's already a great player, but he's truly one of the young superstars in this league and he's going to be a load for a long time."

No matter what Milwaukee accomplishes this season, Antetokounmpo's development gives it meaning. He needs plenty of polish, but he bears the appearance of a 21-year-old elite-talent-in-training. Those don't come around every decade. 

Reasons for Concern

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Putting Antetokounmpo on the ball gives Milwaukee's offense a revolutionary feel, but in actuality, this is an outdated attack. While the league pushes out, the Bucks are moving in. As B/R Insights observed, Milwaukee led the NBA in two-point attempts last season and ranked dead last in three-point shots.

That's concerning for a couple reasons: High-volume perimeter outfits are dominating today's game. Nine of last season's top 10 teams in three-point attempts qualified for the playoffs, including both finalists. All four 2015 conference finalists finished among the top seven in long-range looks.

Middleton's absence—which is expected to last around six months—further complicates matters. He paced the 2015-16 Bucks in three-point makes and was one of only two players to connect on more than 34 percent from outside. Milwaukee's top healthy returning shooter is Vaughn, who tallied 43 makes on just 29.3 percent shooting as a rookie.

"The Bucks don't have nearly enough [shooters] with Khris Middleton potentially out all season," ESPN.com's Zach Lowe wrote. "Antetokounmpo's positional versatility can paper over a lot of things ... but he can't conjure shooting from thin air. Michael Beasley is never the answer to any basketball question, Jason Terry is ancient, and the youngsters are youngsters."

Dellavedova lost his rotation spot during the playoffs. Teletovic has never averaged more than 22.3 minutes per game and could get lost in the crowded frontcourt. Terry was a net negative for the Houston Rockets last season.

Milwaukee needs better spacing to utilize the potent penetration games of Antetokounmpo and Parker. And unless the Bucks see dramatic improvement at the defensive end, they'll need a well-above-average offense to stay in the playoff hunt.

Predictions

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The Bucks belonged on every breakout list coming out of the summer, but Middleton's injury changed everything.

He might not have the name recognition of Antetokounmpo or Parker, but Middleton was Milwaukee's leading scorer and most consistent defender last season. The 2015-16 Bucks were at their best when he played (minus-0.1 net rating) and their worst when he didn't (minus-12.6). The likely ascensions of Antetokounmpo and Parker won't cover for the steep declines coming as Vaughn, Terry, Brogdon and Beasley fail to hide this glaring absence.

That doesn't mean Milwaukee will backtrack in the wins column. But remember, this may have been the NBA's most disappointing team last season. The Bucks should up their victory total just by being themselves, especially if they find the right deal to fortify the wing and unclog the frontcourt. Point-Giannis is going to be mesmerizing with a better-spaced floor.

But this will be yet another season of prospect-watching in Milwaukee. If the rises of Antetokounmpo and Parker are accompanied by signs of life from Vaughn, Maker and Brogdon, a missed playoff trip will be much easier to endure.

• Final Record: 39-43
• Division Standing: Fifth in Central
• Playoff Berth: No
• B/R Leaguewide Power Rankings Prediction: 20th

Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.