Early Top-50 Big Board for 2017 NBA Draft

With just over a month to go before the regular season starts, it's time to break down the projected 2017 NBA draft field.

Notably strong compared to last year's class, particularly at the top, teams will pick from a handful of high-upside incoming freshmen. In fact, eight of my top-10 prospects will be new to college basketball, including the first five names on the board.

The rankings also highlight a number of breakout upperclassmen and international players with first-round grades. Many of them used scouting events (Adidas Nations, FIBA tournaments, Nike Skills Academy) over the summer to showcase improvement or development.

The biggest storyline may ultimately be the point guards and the fact I have seven of them ranked in the top 30. Lottery teams hoping to land their floor general of the future could be in luck this upcoming June.

The order is based on NBA potential, which is determined by a combination of factors such as physical tools, athleticism, skills, intangibles, age and production, though this is not necessarily a reflection of where I believe each prospect will be picked.

No. 50-48

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50. Justin Jackson (North Carolina, SF, Junior)

After struggling to take a step up in 2016-17, this becomes a big year for Jackson's draft stock. The good news: He's still 6'8" with a high basketball IQ, natural feel for finishing in transition and a mechanically sound jumper. 

Still, without a threatening off-the-dribble game, Jackson has to make more than 35 threes and shoot better than 29.2 percent from deep. His potential remains intact—it's just becoming tougher to believe.

49. Jawun Evans (Oklahoma State, PG, Sophomore)

Six-foot size and average athleticism work against him, but they don't destroy Evans' chances of playing in an NBA game. Quick, with turn-the-corner burst, general managers could value his ability to break down defenses and create shots for teammates. 

He dished out 6.8 assists per 40 minutes last year without a strong supporting cast, and despite his size, he managed to shoot 47.1 percent. Scouts will need to see better decision-making (3.5 turnovers per 40 minutes) and a larger sample size of three-point shooting (19-of-40), but Evans' playmaking potential is worth monitoring. 

48. Monte Morris (Iowa State, PG, Senior)

Morris is in the mix of college basketball's best players, but there are questions concerning his transition to the NBA. He isn't super quick off the bounce or explosive at the rim, raising some doubt over his potential to execute against NBA-caliber athletes. 

However, his size and ball skills check out, while his ability to pick apart defenses with timely, intelligent dribbles and passes is second to none. An amazing assist-to-turnover ratio won't be enough to generate first-round love, but assuming he builds on last year's shooting numbers (35.8 percent from three), he'll get his chance to compete for a backup job one day.

No. 47-45

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47. Allonzo Trier (Arizona, SG, Sophomore)

Trier's inability to create for teammates is troublesome for a projected NBA role player. But regardless of how much he improves as a playmaker (1.6 assists per 40 minutes), his primary selling point will continue to revolve around scoring. 

He'll be one of the Pac-12's top weapons in 2016-17. But how does Trier eventually fit into an NBA offense that won't be featuring him? Unless major adjustments are made, his best shot at a pro career will be as a reserve scoring specialist.

He just may be skilled and athletic enough to pull it off.

46. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (Kansas, SG/SF, Junior)

Despite showing little through two seasons at Kansas, it's still early to write off Mykhailiuk, who turned 19 years old in June around the same time as various freshmen. The 6'8" size and athleticism haven't disappeared, either. If the natural shooting stroke he's flashed suddenly becomes more consistent and he's able to put muscle on his upper body, we'll be looking at Mykhailiuk in a new light. 

45. V.J. King (Louisville, SG, Freshman)

Athletic, with 6'7" size, a good-looking jumper and scoring ability, King is one of the more under-the-radar prospects to track. Coach Rick Pitino already called him "ready to play even as a freshman," according to Scout.com's Jody Demling. A likely starter from opening night, King has the opportunity to surprise some scouts who'll be expecting a two- or three-year college player.

He's raw and lacks strength but not talent or NBA attributes. 

No. 44-42

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44. Johnathan Motley (Baylor, PF, Junior)

Efficient (61.4 percent shooting) and productive (21.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks per 40 minutes), Motely even flashed improving skills that have expanded his versatility. An athletic, 6'9" power forward, he showed off back-to-the-basket moves, face-up drives, transition offense and occasional mid-range touch. 

He isn't polished and can be reckless at both ends so, as of today, he isn't good enough in any one area. Motley will still have the chance to make some noise with his tools and developing offense. 

43. Dwayne Bacon (Florida State, SF, Sophomore)

Bacon looks the part with 6'7", 210-pound size and fine athleticism for a projected NBA wing. He even has the skill set most forwards have yet to fully develop. A capable slasher, mid-range scorer and three-point shooter, Bacon just has to become more consistent and proficient in each department.

His NBA potential will depend on it—Bacon isn't a playmaker or strong defender and will likely need scoring to be his moneymaker. 

42. Jessie Govan (Georgetown, C, Sophomore)

Govan's versatility flew under the radar in 17.7 minutes per game. He showed surprising touch away from the basket, having hit 14-of-28 threes and 83.1 percent of his free throws. Though he isn't a big leaper or explosive finisher, he flashed a developing post game and shot-blocking ability. 

Still 19 years old, Govan has room to improve and rise in the draft discussion. He'd attract teams looking for a backup 5 to protect the rim and stretch the floor.

No. 41-39

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41. Chimezie Metu (USC, C, Sophomore)

Scouts saw glimpses of NBA potential with Metu but not consistency or heavy production. At 6'11", he's light on his feet and bouncy around the rim, where he does most of his damage as a finisher and shot-blocker (3.4 per 40 minutes). 

Playing a bigger role in 2016-17, he'll look to expand on the occasional flashes of face-up drives and mid-range jumpers. Grabbing more than 7.8 boards per 40 minutes would also help diminish concerns regarding his strength (225 lbs) and interior toughness.

40. Frank Jackson (Duke, PG/SG, Freshman)

Jackson will have the opportunity to take over as Duke's lead guard, and though not a traditional facilitator, his shooting and athleticism for a ball-handler could draw NBA interest. At 6'3", he's undersized for an off-guard and doesn't offer enough playmaking to run the point full time. Still, Jackson's 205-pound NBA frame, bounce and jumper could be enough to sway scouts. 

39. Cameron Oliver (Nevada, PF, Sophomore)

After averaging 18.2 points, 12.3 boards and 3.5 blocks per 40 minutes, Oliver was mentioned as one of the summer's breakout performers at Adidas Nations, according to DraftExpress. He has momentum and scouts' attention heading into his sophomore year at Nevada, where he could easily average a double-double.

He's only 6'8"—small for an NBA 4—and he doesn't stretch the floor or face up from outside. Still, Oliver has created a compelling case with high-end athleticism, heavy activity and flashes of post moves and jumpers.

No. 38-36

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38. Arnoldas Kulboka (Lithuania, SF, 1998)

Kulboka capitalized last February on his invite to the Basketball Without Borders Global Camp, where his 6'9" size, ball-handling and shooting stroke stood out. He showed some shot-creativity and confident range, though his skinny arms and legs suggest he'll need a few more years to develop. He's emerged as a draft-and-stash option for teams to scout in Germany this season.

37. Thomas Bryant (Indiana, PF/C, Sophomore)

Bryant struggles defensively and lacks a degree of offensive polish, but physical tools (6'10", 255 lbs, 7'5 ½" wingspan), efficiency (68.3 percent field-goal mark) and flashes of versatility will keep first-round hope alive. He's strong at the rim and an active putback threat. Though not a shooter, he's looked capable of making open jumpers (five threes as a freshman). 

Bryant's calling pro card will still be energy and pressure on the offensive glass. As long as he shows some potential to improve defensively, he'll have a chance to go late in the first round.

36. Miles Bridges (Michigan State, SF/PF, Freshman)

Explosive leaping ability and a powerful frame should create NBA draft buzz, but Bridges has work to do before solidifying himself as a 2017 first-rounder. He lacks traditional perimeter skills for a wing, as well as the size (6'7") of NBA power forwards. Showing he can comfortably shoot the three and handle the ball, which would make it easier to envision him converting into a full-time small forward, should be atop Bridges' to-do list.

No. 35-33

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35. D.J. Hogg (Texas A&M, SF, Sophomore)

Hogg was barely used (18.4 percent usage, per Sports-Reference.com) in 18.2 minutes per game as a freshman. That changes in 2016-17 with Danuel House and Jalen Jones gone. Ranking Hogg top-40 means expecting a better year from behind the arc (33.1 percent), which his smooth shooting mechanics and shot-making capability suggest will happen.  

At 6'9", 220 pounds, he passes the eye test for a pro wing. The NBA radar should pick up Hogg's physical tools and perimeter game as his role expands.

34. Rawle Alkins (Arizona, SG, Freshman)

Even with a deep Arizona backcourt, Alkins will be tough to sit for long stretches. A fiery competitor capable of generating offense on demand, NBA teams should covet his one-on-one scoring ability, shot-making and defensive toughness. He isn't explosive and doesn't have mismatch size (6'5") for a 2-guard, but Alkins' physicality and skills should still give him a chance to succeed at the next level.

33. Omer Yurtseven (North Carolina State, C, Freshman)

Though still not cleared by the NCAA (questions over amateur status), Yurtseven has received plenty of exposure over the years, including recently at the U20 European Championships, where he averaged 10.4 points, 5.6 boards and 1.4 blocks in 18.1 minutes a game for Turkey. 

A mobile 7-footer with good hands around the basket, there is NBA potential for teams to develop. Limited shooting range, offensive polish and explosiveness make Yurtseven look more like a fringe first-rounder than a lottery target.

No. 32-30

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32. V.J. Beachem (Notre Dame, SG, Senior)

Beachem's shooting pushes him into the preseason top-40. Coming off his second straight year of making at least 41 percent of his threes, the 6'8" wing has excellent mechanics and shot-making ability off spot-ups, screens and pull-ups. He struggles to create and defend quicker guards, but given his adequate athleticism, size for the position (6'8") and smooth jumper, Beachem's role-player potential is fairly believable. 

31. Kerwin Roach Jr. (Texas, PG/SG, Sophomore)

Roach needs his skills to catch up with his athleticism, which is arguably as explosive as any player's in the country. His numbers weren't great last year; however, since he saw just 17.8 minutes per game with Javan Felix and Isaiah Taylor on the ball, it wasn't an ideal setting for efficient play. 

He'll see a lot more time and opportunities to build some rhythm and experience as lead guard in 2016-17. An elite leaper and lightning rod off the bounce, Roach would light up scouting departments with improved shooting, playmaking and decision-making. 

30. Felipe Dos Anjos (Brazil, C, 1998)

The MVP of last year's Euroleague Adidas Next Generation Tournament, Dos Anjos followed up by standing out during the Basketball Without Borders Global Camp, where he knocked down jumpers in drills and flashed both mobile feet and soft hands during scrimmages. He doesn't get much lift and won't wow with highlights above the rim, but at 7'2", 230 pounds, Dos Anjos competes around the basket and shows potential in the mid-range game. 

No. 29-27

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29. Andrew Jones (Texas, PG/SG, Freshman)

Jones is quietly one of the more intriguing freshmen in the country whose ranking could plummet or jump once the season gets going. On paper, he lacks traditional size (6'4") for a 2-guard, but he's quick and athletic with a perimeter game. The playmaking potential will determine whether we're talking about a legitimate first-round prospect.

Establishing himself as a versatile combo who can score and dish would boost his NBA stock.

28. Carlton Bragg Jr. (Kansas, PF, Sophomore)

This year, Bragg goes from afterthought in Kansas' rotation to X-factor up front and projected breakout player. He'll draw NBA interest with his size (6'9", 220 lbs), athleticism and smooth shooting stroke in the mid-range (43.6 percent on two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com). Emerging as a consistent inside-out scorer and erasing concerns over his defense should lead to first-round buzz during the season.

27. Edmond Sumner (Xavier, PG, Sophomore)

Sumner's size and electric athleticism turned heads last year, though his inefficiency was a notable weakness. He shot 30.1 percent from three, 49.6 percent at the rim and 39.7 percent from the floor, per Hoop-Math.com. But coaches can't teach being 6'5", quick and explosive. Sumner could soar up boards with improved shooting and a more polished overall skill set from his scoring to his playmaking. 

No. 26-24

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26. Wenyen Gabriel (Kentucky, PF, Freshman)

Thin and light for a big man without the perimeter skills of a wing, there are questions concerning Gabriel's NBA potential. But I'm buying into his athleticism and motor. Active around the basket, Gabriel projects as an energizer in doses, though he's also flashed glimpses of offensive upside with jumpers and drives. 

Unless he's blatantly exposed physically, Gabriel shouldn't be written off due to lack of strength at 19 years old. Showcasing unexpected shooting range and touch would help diminish fear that his skinny frame creates. 

25. Grayson Allen (Duke, SG, Junior)

Allen is back at Duke, despite the unlikelihood of him matching last year's 21.6 points per game, 90s threes and 41.7 percent long-range clip.

He's a proven shot-maker and explosive athlete with some playmaking potential (3.5 assists per game). He'll never be a plus defender, which hurts his value. And despite eye-opening burst, he's struggled to separate and finish against length. Allen's ceiling stops at role player, but the NBA-friendly blend of bounce and shooting makes him look like a safe option in the 20s.

24. Devonte' Graham (Kansas, PG, Junior)

Without highlight-reel bounce, mismatch size (6'2") or volume production, Graham enters his third season underappreciated in the draft discussion. The upside isn't there at first glance, but NBA potential exists. 

It would be easier to spot if he didn't have to share a backcourt with Frank Mason III. Graham breaks down perimeter defenses with change of speed and the ability to pull up or toss dimes on the move. Though not an explosive finisher, he compensates with a stop-and-pop jumper and sharp three-point range (career 43.8 percent). Graham also defends, showing the foot speed to contain dribble penetration and make plays on the ball.

He figures to play a bigger role and earn more national recognition with Kansas having lost its top-two scorers (Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden). Graham won't pass any of the younger, bigger, bouncier point guards on draft boards, which should ultimately mean good news for a mid-to-late first-round team hoping to add another ball-handler and shot-maker. 

No. 23-21

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23. Rodions Kurucs (Latvia, SF, 1998)

An athletic, 18-year-old wing with 6'8" size and a promising shooting stroke, Kurucs moves up to Barcelona's senior team in 2016-17. He'll miss time after undergoing knee surgery for a meniscus injury, which puts him behind the eight ball early. And a shortened season reduces his opportunity to make a draft case, though it won't knock him off the radar. 

Kurucs is an obvious talent who'll draw NBA scouts to Spain upon his return, but 2018 may be the better year for him to declare.

22. Malik Monk (Kentucky, SG, Freshman)

Elite athleticism and accurate shooting push Monk into the preseason first-round discussion. He can fly, knock down jumpers and even handle the ball in a secondary role. But fear revolves around his 6'3" size and 6'6" wingspan for a projected off-guard. Will he be able to score efficiently against bigger and longer NBA 2s? 

21. Jonathan Jeanne (France, PF/C, 1997)

Jonathan Jeanne's 7'2" size, mobility and surprising skills have helped make him easy to identify over the years during FIBA play. A natural rim runner and rim protector, he's also flashed unique ball-handling and shooting ability. 

Jeanne will see minutes in LNB Pro A this year after spending last year with the development team for Le Mans Sarthe Basket. An early-season line of 19 points, 17 rebounds and seven blocks (junior division) should only strengthen his case.

Not particularly physical around the hoop, Jeanne may end up transitioning to the NBA 4, given his foot speed and potential to stretch the floor. With his 7'7" wingspan, impressive wheels and a jumper that extends out to the arc, some general manager will gamble on him with a first-round pick. 

20. Jaron Blossomgame (Clemson, SF/PF, Senior)

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Among breakout senior candidates, Jaron Blossomgame is the best bet to crack the top 20. Last year, he put up the numbers—18.7 points, 51.3 percent shooting, 44.6 percent from three—to back the NBA physical profile highlighted by 6'7", 220-pound size and explosive athleticism. 

Blossomgame isn't a playmaker and will therefore lean on scoring and defense to drive his value.

Assuming nothing has changed, scouts will want to see a more well-rounded scoring repertoire, particularly as a perimeter shot-creator and shot-maker. He shot just 36.3 percent on two-point jumpers last season, per Hoop-Math.com.

Otherwise, Blossomgame's tools project favorably on defense, where his foot speed, length and strength should help guard both forward positions. He'll have a chance to mirror Wilson Chandler if he can pick up his motor from start to finish.

19. Lonzo Ball (UCLA, PG, Freshman)

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The top passer in the draft, Lonzo Ball will wow with unteachable vision and fancy assists off outlets, kick-outs and no-look darts from the pocket. His ability to locate teammates and deliver the ball with precision should translate to every level.

At 6'6", he also has the size to quarterback over the defense, along with the agility and bounce to pick up easy hoops in transition. 

Ball would be ranked higher if it weren't for his unorthodox shooting mechanics and a frame that could struggle through contact and rim protection. Though he's a capable shot-maker, his jumper, finishing ability and mid-range game aren't the best.

He projects as more of a mid-tier to low-end starter in the NBA, when coaches are looking for scorers at the point guard position.

18. Jarrett Allen (Texas, C, Freshman)

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Jarrett Allen's strengths and weaknesses are well-defined heading into the season. 

He'll give Texas—and whichever team drafts him—lots of interior activity consisting of finishes, tip-ins, rebounds and blocked shots. Allen runs the floor hard, brings energy and should continue building his image as a center who can impact a game without needing the ball. 

His upside is limited due to questionable explosiveness, touch and polish in the post; Allen doesn't jump high off two feet, create shots or stretch the floor.

Physical tools (6'11", 7'5 ½" wingspan), offensive efficiency and defense should still hold mid-first-round value, particularly in a draft that lacks rim protectors. Count on 10-point, eight-board, two-block lines and a field-goal mark above 50 percent. 

17. Terrance Ferguson (Adelaide 36ers, SG/SF, 1998)

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The Australian game shouldn't mask Terrance Ferguson's 6'7" size, athleticism, shooting and defensive versatility. Scouts will be tracking the Nike Hoop Summit co-MVP who already went for 17 points in his second game for the Adelaide 36ers. 

His jumper looks as sharp as any projected lottery pick's. Ferguson needs little room to release and can knock it down with hands in his face. Offensively, he leans on spot-up chances, closeouts to attack and transition for scoring.

However, he struggles to create shots, both for himself and teammates, and he rarely gets to the rim off drives in the half court. Ferguson isn't the most complete player, but the NBA values what he does well: shooting threes, defending the perimeter and finishing in the open floor. 

16. Isaiah Hartenstein (Germany, PF, 1998)

A back injury kept Isaiah Hartenstein out during the summer, though he had already caught the NBA's attention, whether it was during FIBA play, Eurocamp or Basketball Without Borders Global Camp.

He's back on the floor for Zalgiris, having totaled 40.6 minutes through two games in Lithuania as a 6'11", 225-pound true inside-out threat, and versatile mismatch. He scores with his back to the basket or off drives from the arc and short corners. His jumper needs work but looks capable of connecting and improving.

Hartenstein also projects as a high-volume rebounder, having pulled in 14.8 boards per 40 minutes through 17 total European Championship games.

None of the knocks on him revolves around talent or skill—they concern his potential to apply them. Hartenstein's shot selection, effort and decision-making have me wondering whether he'll make his teammates better or frustrated.

15. Kostja Mushidi (Germany, SG, 1998)

Kostja Mushidi will suit up this year for Mega Leks, which produced three NBA draft picks in 2016 and Denver Nuggets stud Nikola Jokic two years earlier.

At 6'5", 210 pounds, Mushidi looks the part of an NBA 2-guard with strong physical tools and impressive athleticism. He's still raw offensively, which has and will continue to result in inconsistency over the next year or two. And though he's energetic, he's vulnerable to reckless decision-making.

But Mushidi's flashes of shooting, ball-handling and scoring have been thrilling. The hope is that he turns his good days into regular ones. He's off to a nice start in the Serbian League, having gone for 15 points on 12 shots during just his second game.

14. Tyler Lydon (Syracuse, PF, Sophomore)

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Given his limitations as a shot-creator, Tyler Lydon's game doesn't scream upside. It does look like an NBA fit, though, with exciting athleticism, a clean shooting stroke (40.5 percent from three) and admirable intangibles.

He has role-playing stretch 4 written all over him. While his biggest selling point starts with the three-ball, NBA coaches will value his ability to get buckets within the flow of the team's offense, whether they come off cuts, simple finishes, line drives or putbacks. 

Though he's not known for his post or perimeter defense, his bounce and activity at least translate to playmaking, both above the rim (1.8 blocks per game) and in passing lanes (1.1 steals). Showing more off the dribble as a sophomore would raise his ceiling another story, but even the same Lydon from a year ago should still draw mid-first-round interest.

13. Edrice Adebayo (Kentucky, C, Freshman)

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Edrice "Bam" Adebayo's path toward stardom would have to follow Dwight Howard's, DeAndre Jordan's and Andre Drummond's—bigs who compensate for limited skills with a special mix of bounce, power and athleticism. 

A 260-pound explosive leaper, Adebayo converts dumpoffs, lobs, offensive rebounds and fast breaks into dunks and lay-ins. Raw in the post and uncomfortable outside 15 feet, he doesn't project as a scorer Kentucky or future pro teams will feature. But his elite finishing and rebounding potential could eventually translate to double-doubles and high field-goal percentages.

Though only 6'10", he projects as a center in today's NBA, given his inability to play far from the basket. At that height, it's not clear how strong of an impact defender he'll be in the middle. 

Selling himself as a rim protector who can switch off screens takes his value to a top-10 level.

12. De'Aaron Fox (Kentucky, PG, Freshman)

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De'Aaron Fox's athleticism and quickness should result in exciting playmaking at both ends of the floor. NBA coaches will value his ability to pressure opposing guards, and Fox projects as an impact defender with active hands, blazing foot speed and strong instincts. 

As Kentucky's projected lead guard, he's also smooth off the dribble, where he can shake and bake to set the table for teammates or convert hard drives, soft floaters and pull-ups.

Fox's three-ball needs work, as does his shot creativity and finishing at the rim. He's unlikely to ever shoot a high percentage from the floor, and with scoring ball-handlers taking over the NBA's point guard position, Fox's value could take a hit. 

Nevertheless, size (6'3"), shiftiness, bounce, ball skills and defense factor into his lottery ranking.

11. OG Anunoby (Indiana, SG/SF, Sophomore)

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All signs point to a breakout year for OG Anunoby, who raised the bar for himself during last season's NCAA tournament. 

He already aces the NBA test for a wing with 6'8", 235-pound size, long arms and superb athleticism. The expectation is that Anunoby converts the flashes of ball-handling, spot-up shooting, attacking and defense into regular occurrences while playing a bigger role as a sophomore.

NBA coaches will no doubt covet his energy and ability to guard multiple positions. And though he's a project offensively, his skill set has shown both room for growth and the promise to improve.

At the least, Anunoby should be able to sell himself as a three-and-D wing by draft time. But his ceiling goes higher: I'm banking on his offense gradually catching up to his physical tools, quickness and explosiveness. 

10. Lauri Markkanen (Arizona, PF/C, Freshman)

Lauri Markkanen strengthened his draft case during the summer's U20 European Championships, which he led in scoring while showcasing the stretch-big potential every NBA team covets. 

His shooting stroke is easy to buy; Markkanen has a smooth release and the ability to knock down spot-up threes or jumpers off screens. But defenders must be wary of closing out too hard—he has a blow-by first step, agility on the move and the bounce to finish above the rim. 

He's also flashed glimpses of back-to-the-basket scoring and an overall high skill level. Between his 7'0" size, foot speed and perimeter game, Markkanen should be able to play the NBA 4 or 5. 

His value takes a hit due to the fact he's not a rim protector or strong rebounder. Markkanen won't block shots or beef up the interior, but his offensive versatility and three-ball should eventually slide nicely into today's NBA. He projects as an impact freshman for Arizona and one of the more productive youngsters in the Pac-12.

9. Ivan Rabb (California, PF/C, Sophomore)

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Even if Ivan Rabb struggles to build on the freshman flashes, he's still a 2017 lottery option. While it's the post moves and mid-range touch that create upside, it's all the unteachable physical tools, athleticism, hands and rebounding instincts that drive up his floor. 

He's a safe bet to give an NBA team a high-percentage finisher and active body under the boards. But with California having lost its top three scorers, Rabb should have the chance to sharpen and expand his offensive repertoire in a go-to role. A threat to separate with his back to the basket or face up and finish off short corner drives or sink the 15-foot jumper, Rabb has flashed the upside to offer scoring potential.

Without shooting range, ball-handling or playmaking skills, he'll likely be forced to play center in today's NBA. And at 220 pounds, Rabb faces an unfamiliar size disadvantage at the 5.

But the sure-thing vibes he gives off become extra attractive once the big-name freshmen are taken. He's likely a late-lottery pick regardless of what the stats say in 2016-17.

8. Marques Bolden (Duke, C, Freshman)

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Harry Giles III and Jayson Tatum are Duke's higher-profile freshmen; however, Marques Bolden is the team's (and possibly the country's) most overlooked NBA prospect heading into the season. 

At 6'11", 245 pounds with a massive 7'6" wingspan, he has remarkable physical tools. Incredibly long with a monster frame and nimble feet, Bolden offers power and finesse around the basket, where he'll do most of his work as a finisher, low-post scorer and cleanup big man. 

But he's flashed enough moves out of the post over the years to suggest he has more offense up his sleeve just waiting to break out. Spins, jump hooks, counters—Bolden projects as a back-to-the-basket option capable of creating high-percentage shots against a set half-court defense. 

As long as the flashes keep coming consistently and Bolden shows potential in rim protection, he'll be the first center off the board and a sneaky bet to go in the top five. 

Giles' latest setback could also bolster Bolden's opportunity to build a draft case.

7. Jayson Tatum (Duke, SF, Freshman)

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Convincing physical tools (6'8", 205 lbs, 6'11" wingspan) and distinguished offensive skills suggest Jayson Tatum is a safe NBA bet. He passes the eye test for a pro wing, based on his size, athleticism and a scoring repertoire consisting of next-level pull-ups, step-backs and drives. 

A wing whom coaches can isolate, Tatum shines as a one-on-one shot-creator, thanks to a tight handle and the ability to separate and hit contested looks. The best-case-scenario mirror reflects a future go-to option and volume scorer. 

However, Tatum's limited passing and suspect three-point shooting reduce his margin for error and value. I foresee him having trouble making his teammates better and adjusting to more time spent off the ball. On the other hand, Tatum has the chance to develop into a weapon who can give an offense 20-plus points on any night.

6. Frank Ntilikina (France, PG, 1998)

Frank Ntilikina ranks behind two other NCAA point guards, but at No. 5, we're still potentially looking at a future NBA starter. He'll have a bigger role this year with Strasbourg, and he's already impressed early through two games with 16 total points on 7-of-8 shooting.

Ntilikina's athletic ability, 6'5" size, long arms and willingness to facilitate remind me of Dante Exum. 

Offensively, his off-the-dribble game and passing stand out more than anything else. Ntilikina has a natural feel for manipulating the defense and finding the open man. He's not an explosive attacker or scorer, and there is a little bit of "fling" to his jumper. But he's an improving shooter with a pull-up and floater in his arsenal. And if he can add some bulk to his upper body, finishing at the rim should come easier over time.

Defense is another selling point, as Ntilkina can guard both backcourt positions with height, length and quickness. His ceiling appears lower than two other ball-handlers who are projected to declare, but for a team that is looking to develop a new floor general, he should be a fine option anywhere outside the top three.

5. Harry Giles III (Duke, PF, Freshman)

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Another knee surgery knocks Harry Giles III out six weeks and down to No. 5 on my preseason big board. His seat among the elite remains reserved, but at some point, his injury history has to be accounted for when evaluating and determining prospect rankings.

There are too many other top-flight players this year with fewer or zero medical red flags. 

Giles' upside is well-known, and if you were to ignore the ongoing health concerns, he's easily a top-three talent. At 6'10", 240 pounds with 7'3" length, high-flying athleticism and a relentless motor, he's blended monster physical tools, explosiveness and energy with flashes of post offense, face-up scoring and defensive versatility.

But it still doesn't erase the three knee procedures (before turning 19 years old) on his resume. Regardless of how well Giles plays upon his return, assuming he makes one, general managers are bound to hesitate before using a top pick to get him, particularly if Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith Jr. and Jonathan Isaac are also on the board. 

4. Jonathan Isaac (Florida State, SF, Freshman)

Though he's far from polished, Jonathan Isaac's 6'10" size and guard skills illuminate scary potential. He's smooth off the dribble with a good-looking jumper, and his physical tools, athleticism and face-up game create mismatch versatility at both forward positions. 

The question is whether Isaac can eventually tighten everything up and tie it all together. He's more of a project when compared to other premier prospects, but we've seen flashes of ball-handling, agility, pull-up scoring and shooting over the past year, along with defensive quickness and length.

I'm not banking on big freshman numbers for Isaac, who's still raw and likely to take a backseat behind returning producers such as Dwayne Bacon and Xavier Rathan-Mayes. On the other hand, pedestrian stats won't mask the 19-year-old's massive two-way upside. 

He'll be a candidate to get drafted early by a team that is willing to wait on his development.

3. Dennis Smith Jr. (North Carolina State, PG, Freshman)

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Dennis Smith Jr. starts the year at No. 3 with the potential to rise atop the rankings. His draft ceiling is No. 1 overall. 

Whether he gets there could come down to how well his knee responds following last summer's torn ACL. Smith isn't the same caliber shooter as our top guard, either. But at full strength, the quickness and explosiveness are unmatched, while his ball skills and vision are equally effective. 

Playing and wowing this summer at Adidas Nations was key to determining his preseason ranking, considering how little he had played over the past year. He was no doubt a star prospect prior to the injury, and Smith should finish the season viewed in similar light, so long as scouts see that same potent mix of bounce, speed and power.

Projected to lead North Carolina State's offense from opening night, Smith should have an excellent opportunity to build a top-three case. 

2. Josh Jackson (Kansas, SF, Freshman)

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Josh Jackson should have some support as the No. 1 overall candidate once the season gets going.

With traditional size for an NBA wing (6'7") and world-class athletic ability, he's developed a well-rounded skill set. He may even make a case for himself as a future 2-guard, given his ability to handle the ball and pass on the move.

More of a jack of all trades than a scorer, Jackson generates offense using transition, driving lanes, open jump-shot opportunities and the offensive glass. He's not a sharpshooter or polished one-on-one shot creator, which is why he's "only" No. 2 on this list. But his bounce and versatility still create loads of offensive upside, while his defensive quickness and competitiveness portend two-way potential. 

Jackson could wind up guarding three positions and challenging for the team lead in blocks and steals. He's still raw in areas, and with Kansas lacking a go-to weapon in the half court, inconsistent offense wouldn't be overly surprising. But Jackson is still poised for a productive season and a yearlong stay inside my big board's top five.

1. Markelle Fultz (Washington, PG, Freshman)

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Markelle Fultz jumped to No. 1 on my board after winning MVP of the FIBA Americas Championship in August. He's looked sharper at every event dating back to April's Nike Hoop Summit, and all indications are his rise has just begun.

With 6'4" size, exciting athleticism and versatility fueled by ball-handling, scoring and shooting skills, Fultz comes off as a high-floor, high-ceiling prospect.

On top of the physical tools, burst and polish, he's also smart and competitive with no baggage or injury history. The fact that he's gone from junior varsity as a high school sophomore to arguably the nation's top prospect only enhances his likability and highlights the work ethic that NBA teams drool over.

Fultz will put up monster numbers this year running a fast Washington offense (No. 2 in tempo, per KenPom.com) that lost its top two scorers (Andrew Andrews and Dejounte Murray).

On paper, there are other prospects whose ceilings may appear higher, whether it's Duke's Giles or Kansas' Jackson. But with a check in every box and no notable flaws in his game or character, Fultz is a low-risk, potentially high-reward superstar and strong No. 1 overall candidate.

Stats for foreign players courtesy of RealGM, unless otherwise noted. Wingspans courtesy of DraftExpress.