Dallas Mavericks Complete 2016-17 Preview
The Dallas Mavericks were a split-second away from a winless cameo in the 2016 NBA postseason.
During their playoff opener, the Mavs scored a franchise playoff-low 70 points and suffered a 38-point shellacking at the hands of the third-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Game 2, incredibly, went to Dallas 85-84, but only after Steven Adams' potential game-winner was waved off after video review.
"Very proud of our guys and the way they responded after one of the most disappointing games in franchise history," Mavs coach Rick Carlisle said, per Dwain Price of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "It's a group with a lot of pride, obviously a lot of resilience. We had some amazing performances."
Carlisle's use of "amazing" could have used an asterisk.
Dirk Nowitzki finished with more shots than points. Leading scorer Raymond Felton missed two free throws in the final seconds and had more turnovers than assists. If anyone amazed, it was Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook shocking the hoops world with an anemic 15-of-55 showing from the field.
That's what it took to get Dallas a one-point, replay-overturned victory. In the series' other four games? The Mavs were manhandled 476-384.
Thus, the 2015-16 outfit was a playoff participant in title only, riding the weary shoulders of 38-year-old Nowitzki and kept at arm's length by the NBA's elite. The Mavs went a dismal 2-22 against the top four seeds from each conference, a record that motivated major personnel changes.
Biggest Offseason Move
The old adage "If you can't beat 'em, grab as many of their discarded parts as possible" seemingly directed Dallas' offseason. The Mavs, like most teams, struggled with the Western Conference champion Golden State Warriors last season, so Dallas acquired 40 percent of their starting lineup.
After being pushed aside in Golden State's Durant pursuit, former top prospect and lottery pick Harrison Barnes landed in Dallas on a four-year, $94 million deal. Even in the NBA's new economy, that seems a stiff price for a player with career per-game averages of 10.1 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists.
But the Mavs see ample growth potential as the 6'8" swingman climbs the offensive totem pole.
"I think his game is going to expand significantly," Mavs owner Mark Cuban told reporters. "You know, you can only do what you're asked to do in the NBA, and so he's going to get asked to do a whole lot more with us. ... I'm not expecting miracles in Year 1. There will be an adjustment period, but he's definitely got the skill set."
Dallas' second dip into the Bay Area was prying loose former No. 1 pick Andrew Bogut, who posted last season's best defensive real plus-minus, per ESPN.com. The Mavs haven't fielded a top-10 defense since 2011-12, but they're hoping the switch from Chandler Parsons and Zaza Pachulia to Barnes and Bogut can snap that skid.
The rest of their free-agent money was largely spent on their own—re-signing Nowitzki, Deron Williams and Dwight Powell—but they also inked low-cost deals with Seth Curry, Quincy Acy and 28-year-old summer league standout Jonathan Gibson. Felton, David Lee and JaVale McGee found new homes in free agency.
Rotation Breakdown
Carlisle shouldn't have much trouble setting his starting five. The trio of Nowitzki, Williams and Wesley Matthews posted a plus-6.2 net efficiency rating together last season, which would have ranked fourth overall. Barnes and Bogut are the most obvious candidates to strengthen Dallas' defense, so their starting spots should be secure.
The one player capable of jumping into this mix? Sophomore Justin Anderson, whose rookie year began with fluctuating minutes and ended with a playoff start. The 6'6" swingman oozes three-and-D potential with a sure shot from deep, explosive athleticism and a nasty defensive attitude.
But he's blocked by Matthews and Barnes, proven three-and-D talents who will earn more than $39 million combined next season. So, Anderson will bide his time backing up both wings.
| Deron Williams | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Dirk Nowitzki | Andrew Bogut |
| J.J. Barea | Devin Harris | Justin Anderson | Dwight Powell | Salah Mejri |
| Seth Curry | Jonathan Gibson | Quincy Acy | A.J. Hammons |
Nowtizki's minutes need to come down—if the Mavs can afford it. He lost a(nother) step last season, shot the lowest percentage since his rookie year (44.8) and still led the team in scoring. He played almost two full minutes per game more than the previous campaign because Dallas was dreadful without him (plus-3.6 on, minus-3.9 off).
"What the Mavericks are hoping this year is that they can get his minutes down below 30 per game and start transitioning to a time when Nowitzki no longer is their safety net," Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News wrote. "That all sounds good. But he's still Dirk and still is too good not to be one of the Mavericks' heavy lifters."
The Mavs seem poised for plenty of small ball, with the options to call upon three-guard lineups—Curry could score his way to significant playing time—and quintets featuring Matthews, Anderson and Barnes together. Up front, Bogut and Salah Mejri should barricade the rim, while rookie A.J. Hammons likely hones his skills in the NBA Development League.
Reasons for Confidence
For the longest time, a Nowitzki-led offense needed only a complementary defense to dominate. Even the Mavs' 2011 title team was only a good-not-great seventh in defensive efficiency.
But with Nowitzki fighting against the clock—and no offensive heir apparent emerging to this point—Dallas must win more games defensively. The Mavs didn't have that last season, as they graded out almost perfectly mediocre: 16th in defensive rating and field-goal percentage against.
Internal and external help should both be on the way. Using the field-goal differential metric—how players shot against specific defenders compared to their average—one can uncover several stoppers at Carlisle's disposal.
That isn't a perfect stat, but it highlights the impact these five defenders had on their matchups. There are two names noticeably absent from the graphic: Barnes and Anderson. But Anderson paced Dallas with a 99.8 defensive rating, 5.3 fewer points per 100 possessions than the Mavs surrendered without him. And Barnes' ability to handle bigs and smalls helped key Golden State's switch-everything scheme.
"We should be able to have a great defensive lineup once I'm out with just length and athletes," Nowitzki said, per Mavs.com's Earl K. Sneed. "You know, nowadays, it's a lot of switching lineups, so I think we have a lineup out there that could be really, really good. And obviously, youth and athleticism is a big part."
Anderson, Powell and Mejri will only improve with experience. Matthews should move better now that he's more than a year removed from tearing his Achilles, Bogut is already a decorated defender, and Barnes has the physical tools to become one.
Reasons for Concern
Mavs fans should start hand exercises now, because there's going to be a ludicrous amount of crossed fingers in Dallas this season. Before getting into the myriad things that could go wrong, the Mavs first must worry about what needs to go right.
Barnes can't be a complementary piece, even though that's the only NBA role he's ever held. Matthews must get back all of his athletic ability—never a given with Achilles injuries—and take his offensive creativity to a level he's never reached. Powell needs to be worth $37 million—he lost his rotation spot last season—and Curry can't only be Steph's brother.
What are the chances any of those things happen? No idea.
What are the odds all of them occur? Closer to none than slim, which is frightening given the variety of ways Dallas could derail.
Nowitzki has stayed a step ahead of Father Time, but there's a reason most NBA teams aren't built around 38-year-olds. Williams has missed double-digit games each of the last three seasons. Bogut has the same streak, only his is eight years long. Barnes has never produced like his predecessor, Parsons.
Health could strike this team down. The same goes for regression among the old guard. Or the lack of progression with the youngsters. The Mavs could be without a go-to option and top out at decent, leaving them well outside what's still a crowded Western Conference playoff field.
Predictions
You know what's harder than betting against Nowitzki? Wagering against the Dirk-Carlisle combo. Since the pair joined forces in 2008, Dallas has gone 380-260—the fourth-best mark over that stretch—and have made the playoffs seven out of eight seasons, per Bleacher Report Insights.
But the Mavs haven't advanced beyond the opening round since their 2011 title run. They have shuffled and reshuffled their roster around the big German, but they've failed to find the right combo that thrusts them back into the championship hunt.
This isn't the one. Not by a long shot.
Dallas should see marginal improvement on defense, but the offense could reverse that progress with another year on Nowitzki's wheels and the absence of Parsons. It's been a long time since Barnes looked like he could become a special player, and Matthews has never flashed that potential. This is a group of Robins (and extras), leaving Nowitzki stuck in the Batman role he doesn't have the body to play.
The Mavs are too good to flatline, but not good enough to comfortably secure a postseason spot. They'll chase a playoff berth into the season's last week, but my crystal ball doesn't have them surviving the final cut.
- Final Record: 40-42
- Division Standing: Fourth in Southwest
- Playoff Berth: No
- B/R Leaguewide Power Rankings Prediction: 16th
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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