Updated 2016 MLB Playoff Odds with 5 Days to Go
Less than a week remains in the 2016 MLB regular season, and there are still a handful of playoff spots up for grabs.
On the American League side, the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers have clinched their respective divisions, and the Boston Red Sox have locked up a playoff spot with their magic number at one to clinch the AL East.
That leaves the Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros to duke it out for the two wild-card spots, with the Astros the furthest team out of the race at just 2.5 games back.
In the National League, the Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers have already cemented themselves as division winners, with the Cubs locking up the best record in the league as well.
The wild card is anything but decided, though, as the New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals are separated by just 1.5 games, and a crazy three-way-tie scenario still remains a realistic possibility.
At any rate, what follows is a look at each remaining contender's chances of reaching the postseason, with the following factors taken into account:
- Current standings
- Recent performance
- Future schedule
- Injury concerns
So, with the regular season set to wrap up on Oct. 2, here is an updated division-by-division look at the playoff chances of all the remaining contenders from where they stood one week ago.
AL East
1 of 6
Contenders
x-Boston Red Sox (92-65, 5.0 games up in AL East)
The Red Sox missed a chance to clinch the AL East title on Tuesday night, but they remain the hottest team in baseball.
They've already clinched a playoff spot and have won 16 of their last 19 games, including 11 in a row prior to Tuesday night's 6-4 defeat against the rival New York Yankees. Home-field advantage is still on the line, as they sit a half-game behind the Rangers for the best record in the AL.
A more consistent starting rotation has been the biggest difference during their recent run of success, while the offense continues firing on all cylinders with 5.88 runs per game during an 18-6 month of September.
Postseason Chances: 100 percent (+1 percent)
Toronto Blue Jays (87-70, 3.0 games up in WC)
The Blue Jays picked up a huge win over the Orioles on Tuesday night, as Aaron Sanchez out-pitched Kevin Gausman in what may have been a preview of the Wild Card Round pitching matchup.
That gives Toronto a two-game cushion over the O's in the wild-card standings and a three-game cushion to secure a playoff spot, making it close to a lock with five games remaining.
However, it was dealt a blow during the bench-clearing shenanigans with the Yankees on Monday, as setup man Joaquin Benoit (torn calf muscle) will miss the remainder of the regular season at the very least, and second baseman Devon Travis (shoulder) is day-to-day, per ESPN.com.
Jason Grilli will step into the primary setup role, while the defensive-minded duo of Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins are both options at second base.
Postseason Chances: 92 percent (+17 percent)
Baltimore Orioles (85-72, 1.0 games up in WC)
The Orioles made the most of their series against the Arizona Diamondbacks with a three-game sweep over the weekend, but they dropped the first of a crucial three-game set with the Blue Jays on Tuesday.
Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Tillman will take the ball in the remaining two games of that series against Francisco Liriano and Marcus Stroman before the O's close things out with three games in Boston against a Red Sox team that will still be fighting for home-field advantage.
A slumping offense has put some added pressure on the pitching staff, as the O's have hit just .212 as a team and averaged 2.67 runs per game over the past week.
Postseason Chances: 58 percent (-10 percent)
Non-Contenders
New York Yankees (81-76) (-2 percent)
Tampa Bay Rays (65-92)
x-clinched playoff spot
y-clinched division
AL Central
2 of 6
Contenders
y-Cleveland Indians (91-66, clinched AL Central title)
The Indians may have the AL Central title in hand, but their World Series hopes potentially took another big hit on Tuesday.
Ace Corey Kluber became the latest starter to go down with an injury, as he's expected to miss at least a week with a quad strain.
"It's a heck of a lot better than it could've been," manager Terry Francona told reporters. "I think we were hopeful that he'd be OK, but again, when a guy's out there competing, you don't know how much they're really hurting."
Danny Salazar (forearm strain) and Carlos Carrasco (broken hand) are both already missing from what was at one time a dominant starting rotation, leaving Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger as key pieces of the puzzle looking ahead to October.
Postseason Chances: 100 percent (+1 percent)
Detroit Tigers (84-73, 1.0 game back in WC)
The Tigers exploded for a 12-0 win over the Indians on Tuesday, snapping a three-game losing streak and pulling within one game of the Orioles for the No. 2 wild-card spot.
Youngsters Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris will take the ball in the final two games of the series against Cleveland before the team heads to Atlanta for a three-game set to close out the season.
A season-ending matchup with the Braves would have looked like a significant advantage earlier in the season, but they've gone 8-1 in their last nine games and 16-9 in their last 25, so that series won't be a walk in the park.
Justin Verlander is lined up to pitch the regular-season finale on Sunday against Julio Teheran, which would position the rookie Fulmer to take the ball in the all-or-nothing Wild Card Game.
Postseason Chances: 31 percent (+9 percent)
Non-Contenders
Kansas City Royals (80-77) (-1 percent)
Chicago White Sox (76-81)
Minnesota Twins (56-101)
x-clinched playoff spot
y-clinched division
AL West
3 of 6
Contenders
y-Texas Rangers (93-65, clinched AL West title)
The Rangers hold a half-game edge for home-field advantage, and that's something they'll continue pushing hard for considering their 51-26 record in Arlington this year.
Colby Lewis, Martin Perez and A.J. Griffin continue to battle for the final two spots in the playoff rotation, with Derek Holland likely to serve as a long man out of the bullpen.
Perez (4 GS, 2 QS, 4.85 ERA) has been the team's best starter in what's been a rocky September for the rotation, while Griffin (5 GS, 1 QS, 7.94 ERA) and Lewis (3 GS, 0 QS, 9.75 ERA) have both been hit hard. Lewis did not make it out of the second inning in his most recent start, but that hasn't eliminated him from the conversation.
"I trust Colby," manager Jeff Banister told reporters after that rough outing. "There is a bank of trust there. He will continue to pitch, and we will give him every chance to find the feel."
Postseason Chances: 100 percent (+1 percent)
Seattle Mariners (83-74, 2.0 games back in WC)
The Mariners went from six games back in the wild-card standings to 2.5 back when they rattled off an eight-game winning streak earlier this month, but they've gone just 5-6 in 11 games since and are facing an uphill battle.
They have one more game with the Astros on Wednesday before heading home for four games against an Oakland Athletics team that they've gone 10-5 with a plus-22 run differential against so far this season.
Felix Hernandez started on Tuesday night, putting him in position to pitch the regular-season finale with James Paxton lined up for the Wild Card Round if they secure a postseason spot.
Things are largely out of the Mariners' hands at this point, as they'll need teams ahead of them to falter to have a real chance. But crazier things have happened than making up a two-game deficit with five to play, and their schedule is a favorable one.
Postseason Chances: 17 percent (+7 percent)
Houston Astros (83-75, 2.5 games back in WC)
A 3-4 performance over the past week leaves the Astros clinging to life in the wild-card standings, and they'll need to make up 2.5 games over the season's final five days.
They finish up the season with a three-game series against the Los Angeles Angels after an off day on Thursday. They've dominated the Halos to the tune of a 12-4 record and plus-25 run differential so far this year, so that helps their case a bit.
Still, they'll need to win out and hope for the best at this point. If nothing else, the fact that they've stuck around with a makeshift starting rotation speaks to their resilience.
Postseason Chances: 2 percent (-23 percent)
Non-Contenders
Los Angeles Angels (71-87)
Oakland Athletics (67-90)
x-clinched playoff spot
y-clinched division
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NL East
4 of 6
Contenders
y-Washington Nationals (92-65, clinched NL East title)
The Nationals have a two-game lead over the Dodgers for the right to host their division series matchup, and they'll look to lock that up as they close out the season against the Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins.
Sorting out the postseason rotation remains a priority, and Stephen Strasburg has been all but ruled out for a start in the National League Division Series, according to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post.
A healthy Joe Ross could still push Gio Gonzalez to be the Game 3 starter behind Max Scherzer and Tanner Roark, but he'll need to show something in his next start after going just 2.2 innings last time out.
The team will also be without All-Star catcher Wilson Ramos going forward, as his season abruptly ended on Monday with a torn ACL.
"All of our catchers are very good catchers. It’s just that he is not only the top offensive catcher on our team, a big part of our offense, he’s one of the top offensive catchers in baseball," manager Dusty Baker told reporters.
Jose Lobaton will step into the starting role, with rookie Pedro Severino now serving as the primary backup.
Postseason Chances: 100 percent (+1 percent)
New York Mets (84-74, 1.5 games up in WC)
The Mets have stormed into the NL wild-card lead thanks to a 15-10 month of September, and their offense has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting of late.
The Mets have piled up 50 runs in their past five games, including a 17-0 thumping of the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, and that has helped take some pressure off the young starting rotation.
Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo and Gabriel Ynoa have been thrust into a pennant race with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz all finished for the season, and they've more than held their own.
An off day on Thursday will allow the Mets to skip Ynoa in the rotation, setting up Bartolo Colon and Noah Syndergaard to pitch the final two games of the season against the Phillies.
Should they have a wild-card berth locked up before Sunday, they'll undoubtedly save Syndergaard for the Wild Card Round start.
Postseason Chances: 84 percent (+9 percent)
Non-Contenders
Miami Marlins (78-79)
Philadelphia Phillies (70-87)
Atlanta Braves (64-92)
x-clinched playoff spot
y-clinched division
NL Central
5 of 6
Contenders
y-Chicago Cubs (101-56, clinched NL Central title)
The Cubs have already locked up home-field advantage through the National League Championship Series and reached the 100-win mark for the first time since 1935, so there's not much left to play for from a team perspective in the final week.
However, there is plenty at stake on an individual level.
Jon Lester will have one more start to strengthen his case for NL Cy Young honors, with teammate Kyle Hendricks standing as perhaps his biggest competition.
Meanwhile, Kris Bryant is one home run shy of the Cubs' first 40-homer, 100-RBI season since Derrek Lee in 2005 and looking to put the finishing touches on his MVP resume.
Postseason Chances: 100 percent (+0 percent)
St. Louis Cardinals (82-75, 1.0 game back in WC)
After a 15-2 shellacking on Monday, the Cardinals quickly righted the ship with a big 12-5 win of their own on Tuesday, and they remain one game back in the wild-card standings.
Two more games with the Cincinnati Reds and three with the Pittsburgh Pirates remain on the schedule, and the Cardinals' puzzling struggles at Busch Stadium (34-42, minus-19 run differential) now loom large as they finish up the season at home.
Ace Carlos Martinez is scheduled to pitch next on Friday, which would give him a standard four days of rest leading up to the NL Wild Card Game.
However, that means the team will be counting on Jaime Garcia and Adam Wainwright to close out the regular season, and those two have been anything but consistent in 2016.
Postseason Chances: 53 percent (-13 percent)
Non-Contenders
Pittsburgh Pirates (77-80)
Milwaukee Brewers (71-87)
Cincinnati Reds (66-91)
x-clinched playoff spot
y-clinched division
NL West
6 of 6
Contenders
y-Los Angeles Dodgers (90-67, clinched NL West title)
The Dodgers clinched a fourth consecutive NL West title on Sunday with a dramatic walk-off win, and that will give them a chance to line up their starting rotation heading into the division series.
Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda will start the first three games in that order, but the Game 4 starter is still up in the air, according to Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times.
Rookie Julio Urias appears to be the front-runner, though a recent return to health by the veteran trio of Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson gives the team an abundance of options.
In other playoff roster news, outfielder Yasiel Puig will have a spot on the NLDS 25-man squad, according to Doug Padilla of ESPN.com.
"He's earned it," manager Dave Roberts told reporters.
Postseason Chances: 100 percent (+1 percent)
San Francisco Giants (83-74, 1.0 game up in WC)
The Giants have been trying their best since the All-Star break to miss the playoffs, going an NL-worst 26-41 in the second half, and yet they still hold a one-game lead for the second wild-card spot.
A sketchy bullpen has been the biggest issue, as their relief corps has suffered seven losses and converted just seven of 16 save chances during the month of September.
Shortstop Brandon Crawford returned to action on Sunday after missing four games with a dislocated pinkie, and Johnny Cueto is in line to start Thursday after tweaking his groin in his last start.
However, third baseman Eduardo Nunez is now sidelined with a hamstring injury, which led the team to acquire Gordon Beckham on Tuesday in a rare late-September trade.
Two more games with the Colorado Rockies are followed by a three-game series with the rival Dodgers, who would love nothing more than to be the ones who drive that final nail into the coffin.
Postseason Chances: 63 percent (+3 percent)
Non-Contenders
Colorado Rockies (73-84)
San Diego Padres (67-90)
Arizona Diamondbacks (65-92)
x-clinched playoff spot
y-clinched division
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Standings current through Tuesday.
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