Updated 2016 MLB Playoff Odds with 2 Weeks Remaining
Roughly two weeks are left in the 2016 MLB regular season, and while the playoff picture is taking shape, there is still a lot to be decided before October.
The American League is home to 10 teams that can call themselves legitimate contenders. The Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers have a strong hold on their respective division leads and the Boston Red Sox have started to put some ground between themselves and the rest of the AL East.
However, the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are all still within striking distance of claiming a wild card spot, with the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals still holding onto a slim hope as well.
The National League picture is not as congested, with six clubs currently battling it out for five spots. The Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals are locks to claim their respective division crowns, while the Los Angeles Dodgers are a safe bet to be playing in October in some capacity.
Meanwhile, the wild card standings show a three-way tie between the San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets entering play on Wednesday, in what is shaping up to be a thrilling finish.
At any rate, what follows is a look at each club's chances of reaching the postseason, with the following factors taken into account:
- Current standings
- Recent performance
- Future schedule
- Injury concerns
So, with the regular season set to wrap up on Oct. 2, here is an updated division-by-division look at the playoff chances of all the remaining contenders from where they stood one week ago.
AL East
1 of 6
Contenders
Boston Red Sox (87-64, 4 games up in division)
The Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball right now, riding a six-game winning streak and an impressive 11-3 stretch in their last 14 games.
Their current four-game lead in the division represents their biggest advantage of the entire season, and they'll look to extend that even further on the road after winning the first two games of a 10-game road trip.
The offense has been putting up 6.44 runs per game this month, with Hanley Ramirez leading the way with a 1.187 OPS, nine home runs and 23 RBI in 18 games. Not to be outdone, the pitching staff has an AL-best 2.89 ERA in September as well.
Momentum is on Boston's side.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent (+6 percent)
Toronto Blue Jays (83-68, 2.5 games up in WC)
It appears the Blue Jays have managed to right the ship after a rough 3-9 start to the month.
They've followed up a four-game split with the Los Angeles Angels by taking the first two in their series with the Seattle Mariners, leaving them with a 2.5-game cushion and the No. 1 wild card spot for the time being.
The starting rotation has bounced back nicely after a rocky couple weeks and and veterans Jason Grilli (41 G, 19 HLD, 2.56 ERA) and Joaquin Benoit (22 G, 9 HLD, 0.44 ERA) deserve a ton of credit for the job they've done stabilizing the bullpen ahead of closer Roberto Osuna.
A homestand against the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles awaits once the Jays wrap up in Seattle.
Postseason Chances: 75 percent (+4 percent)
Baltimore Orioles (82-69, 1.5 game up in WC)
The Orioles have followed up a four-game split with the Tampa Bay Rays by dropping the first two games of their current series with the Red Sox, leaving them in the No. 2 spot in the wild card standings.
That's not insignificant, considering they boast a 47-29 record at home, compared to 35-40 away from Camden Yards. However, at this point, they're simply trying to make it to the postseason in some capacity.
Kevin Gausman continues to pitch like a bona fide ace, but the rest of the rotation has been on the downswing again after a hot start to the month. The offense has also cooled a bit in September, with the team batting .235 and averaging 4.5 runs per game.
An upcoming interleague series with the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks is a chip in Baltimore's favor.
Postseason Chances: 68 percent (-2 percent)
New York Yankees (78-72, 3.5 games back in WC)
At 1-5 in the past week and 2-7 overall since having a seven-game winning streak snapped, the Yankees postseason hopes have all but vanished with two weeks to go.
Billy Butler (6-for-14, 2 2B, 1 HR) has quietly been a nice addition to the lineup since being released by the Oakland A's and rookie phenom Gary Sanchez continues to make this whole MLB thing look pretty easy.
The rest of the offense has been hit-and-miss, though, and the starting rotation has struggled to string together quality starts behind AL ERA leader Masahiro Tanaka (2.97 ERA).
They get the Blue Jays on the road and then it's home to Yankee Stadium to face the Red Sox and Orioles to close out the season.
Postseason Chances: 2 percent (-13 percent)
Non-Contenders
Tampa Bay Rays (64-86)
AL Central
2 of 6
Contenders
Cleveland Indians (87-63, 7 games up in division)
The Indians have all but wrapped up their first AL Central title since 2007, but the past few weeks have not been kind.
Danny Salazar was lost for a month to a forearm strain at the start of the month, while catcher Yan Gomes (broken wrist) and fellow right-hander Carlos Carrasco (broken finger) both suffered season-ending injuries.
That has left the team considering a three-man playoff rotation, with Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer both pitching on short rest and the duo of Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger piggy-backing the No. 3 spot, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.
So while their World Series odds may have taken a hit, they're still a lock for the postseason with a magic number of six.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent (+0 percent)
Detroit Tigers (80-70, 1.5 games back in WC)
The Tigers were unable to take advantage of a home series against the last-place Twins, settling for a four-game split, and they followed that up by dropping two of three to the Indians.
All told, they've gone 33-34 against the rest of the division and with games left against the Twins, Royals and Indians that doesn't bode well.
The starting rotation has also stumbled with Michael Fulmer (5.0 IP, 7 H, 6 ER), Anibal Sanchez (4.0 IP, 5 H, 6 ER) and Mike Pelfrey (1.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER) all knocked around in their most recent start.
The offense is still dangerous with a red-hot Miguel Cabrera leading the way, and a three-game series with the Atlanta Braves is a nice way to wrap up the season, but momentum is not on Detroit's side at the moment.
Postseason Chances: 22 percent (-5 percent)
Kansas City Royals (77-74, 5 games back in WC)
A 20-9 month of August pulled the Royals back into the playoff picture, but a four-game sweep at the hands of the Oakland Athletics last week all but extinguished their postseason hopes.
They suffered another heart-breaking loss on Tuesday when the Indians walked off for a 2-1 win, as what has long been one of the league's most dominant bullpens has faltered.
The relief corps has combined for a 6.27 ERA in September and top dogs Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria have been among the biggest offenders with a 6.50 ERA, four losses and five blown saves between them.
Crazier things have happened at just five games back in the wild card, but this doesn't look like a team poised for a late push.
Postseason Chances: 1 percent (-1 percent)
Non-Contenders
Chicago White Sox (72-79)
Minnesota Twins (55-96)
AL West
3 of 6
Contenders
Texas Rangers (90-62, 9.5 games up in division)
The Rangers became the AL's first 90-game winners with a 5-4 victory over the Angels on Tuesday night, as they continue to push for home field advantage.
With a 50-24 record on the year at home, that's certainly worth playing for, and they currently hold a two-game lead over the Indians for the AL's best record.
While the offense is firing on all cylinders, the pitching staff ranks 29th in the majors with a 5.63 ERA in September and co-aces Cole Hamels (3 GS, 0-1, 9.88 ERA) and Yu Darvish (3 GS, 0-2, 7.47 ERA) will need to kick it into gear over the final two weeks.
All of that said, the magic number stands at two, and they'll likely be the next to clinch.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent (+0 percent)
Houston Astros (80-71, 2 games back in WC)
Despite losing Dallas Keuchel and already being without Lance McCullers, the Astros refuse to roll over and a 5-1 showing over the past week has them within two games of a wild card spot.
Collin McHugh (7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER) and Mike Fiers (6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER) both stepped up with terrific starts and Ken Giles nailed down all three of his save chances.
A slumping Jose Altuve (.222 BA in Sept.) and a potentially season-ending hamstring injury to their hottest hitter Alex Bregman leave the offense as a question mark as well, but the Astros continue to find ways to win.
The biggest chip in their favor: Seven of their remaining 11 games are against the Angels, a team they've thus far beaten 11 times in 12 games with a plus-34 run differential.
Postseason Chances: 25 percent (+20 percent)
Seattle Mariners (79-72, 3 games back in WC)
Since ripping off an eight-game winning streak, the Mariners have crashed back to earth and gone 1-4 in their last five games with series losses to the Astros and Blue Jays.
Hisashi Iwakuma—who had been the team's most consistent starter—allowed eight hits and six runs over just 3.1 innings, taking the loss in a 10-2 drubbing on Tuesday.
They have series with the Twins and A's sandwiched around a three-game set in Houston, so their schedule is as favorable as anyone's, but it won't mean much if the rotation doesn't deliver and the offense doesn't pull its weight.
Postseason Chances: 10 percent (-8 percent)
Non-Contenders
Oakland Athletics (66-85)
Los Angeles Angels (65-86)
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NL East
4 of 6
Contenders
Washington Nationals (88-63, 8 games up in division)
The Nationals have dropped four straight after a hot start to the month, but a loss by the Mets on Tuesday night still trimmed their magic number to four.
Rookie Trea Turner has been leading the charge in September with a .346/.370/.654 line that includes six home runs and 12 RBI in 18 games, while Daniel Murphy (.347 BA) continues to chase D.J. LeMahieu (.349 BA) for the NL batting title.
Sorting out the postseason rotation behind Max Scherzer and Tanner Roark remains the Nats' biggest priority. Joe Ross made his first start since July 2 on Sunday, allowing six hits and one run while striking out five over three innings and his next start will be a big one in proving he can make an October impact.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent (+0 percent)
New York Mets (80-71, tied for WC lead)
The Mets have by far the most favorable schedule for the three NL wild card contenders, with the Phillies (seven games), Marlins (three) and Braves (one) awaiting over their final 11 games.
Losing Jacob deGrom to season-ending elbow surgery was a huge blow. However, there's a chance another front-line arm in Steven Matz may be able to fill the void, as he's slated to return to action on Friday after missing over a month with tightness in his throwing shoulder.
"Feeling good and I'm ready to go," Matz told reporters on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the unheralded duo of Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman has continued to shoulder the load alongside Bartolo Colon—who is 14-7 with a 3.14 ERA that ranks 11th in the NL—and ace Noah Syndergaard.
Postseason Chances: 75 percent (+3 percent)
Non-Contenders
Miami Marlins (76-75) (-1 percent)
Philadelphia Phillies (68-83)
Atlanta Braves (60-91)
NL Central
5 of 6
Contenders
y-Chicago Cubs (96-55, 16 games up in division)
The Cubs became the first team to clinch a playoff berth when the Cardinals lost to the Giants on Thursday night, and now they're eyeing the team's first 100-win season since 1935.
Manager Joe Maddon still has some decisions to make about how the postseason roster will shape up. Keeping everyone healthy is still a top priority.
However, with NLDS home field already locked up and NL home field in the bag, they'll have every opportunity to keep guys fresh heading into October.
Postseason Chances: 100 percent (+1 percent)
St. Louis Cardinals (80-71, tied for WC lead)
The Cardinals have won four in a row and they'll look to finish off a sweep of the Rockies in Colorado before heading to Chicago to take on the rival Cubs.
Alex Reyes has officially replaced the struggling Jaime Garcia in the starting rotation and he turned in the best start of his career last time out with seven scoreless innings.
Reyes and fellow rookie Luke Weaver will be asked to step up once again over the season's final week, especially with Adam Wainwright failing to make it past the sixth inning in three of his last four starts.
Following the Cubs series, the Cardinals head home to face the Reds (4) and Pirates (3) to close out the regular season slate. Generally that would be an advantage, but they've gone 33-41 on the year at Busch Stadium.
Postseason Chances: 67 percent (+15 percent)
Non-Contenders
Pittsburgh Pirates (75-75)
Milwaukee Brewers (68-83)
Cincinnati Reds (63-88)
y=clinched division
NL West
6 of 6
Contenders
Los Angeles Dodgers (85-66, 5 games up in division)
The Dodgers magic number currently sits at seven games, and they'll have a chance to knock two more off of that total in the decisive Game 3 of their current series with the rival Giants.
Now that Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill are back to full health and pitching at a high level, the Dodgers look like the clearly superior team in the NL West and deserve mention alongside the Cubs and Nationals as an NL elite.
Corey Seager is putting the finishing touches on one of the best rookie seasons in the history of a franchise that has won 16 Rookie of the Year awards over the years, and a top-five finish in NL MVP voting seems like a foregone conclusion as well.
The Dodgers will have an opportunity to spoil the Giants season with a three-game series in San Francisco to close out the year, and you can bet they won't be resting up their starters if a postseason berth for the Giants is hanging in the balance.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent (+0 percent)
San Francisco Giants (80-71, tied for WC lead)
The Giants have the toughest draw of the three NL wild card hopefuls. They have four games left against the rival Dodgers and three with a Rockies team that they've gone 8-8 against with a minus-10 run differential.
The bullpen hasn't made things any easier.
All told, they have converted just 5-of-13 save chances in the month of September and the closer's role is currently a committee approach. Sergio Romo nailed down the save on Tuesday night and perhaps he can bring some stability to the ninth inning.
Making things even more difficult going forward, both Johnny Cueto (groin strain) and Brandon Crawford (dislocated finger) left Tuesday's game with injuries.
Postseason Chances: 60 percent (-18 percent)
Non-Contenders
Colorado Rockies (72-79)
San Diego Padres (64-87)
Arizona Diamondbacks (63-88)
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Standings current through Tuesday.
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