Memphis Grizzlies Complete 2016-17 Preview
There was no grand finale for the grit-and-grind era of the Memphis Grizzlies.
They were pulverized by the injury bug and torn down by trades in 2015-16. By season's end, they had suited up a league-record 28 different players and entered the playoffs with only one opening-night starter in action.
Rather than bank on good health and a familiar formula to reascend the Western Conference ladder, Memphis spent the summer modernizing its strategies.
Skipper Dave Joerger—a reluctant-but-willing grit-and-grind overseer—was ousted and replaced by longtime NBA assistant David Fizdale. Mike Conley and Chandler Parsons collected more than $247 million in free agency to juice a Grizzlies attack finally ready to embrace pace-and-space.
"I've talked to all the guys and they understand where the league is at," Fizdale said, per CBS Sports' Matt Moore. "If we think we're going to play in the 80s and win anything, we're sadly mistaken. And they understand that and I think we're going to have a committed group to playing at a faster tempo."
The Grizzlies have talked about accelerating before, but the personnel changes could make this philosophical change stick. But will the franchise find more success than its black-and-blue days?
Biggest Offseason Move
Memphis made three monumental, organization-rattling moves over the offseason. One involved making Conley the highest-paid player in NBA history. Another tasked Fizdale with bringing the league's premier throwback franchise up to date.
But as far as 2016-17 is concerned, no deal holds greater importance than Parsons' four-year pact. When healthy, the 27-year-old's versatility fits perfectly in a Robin role. Assuming Conley and/or Gasol can be the Grizzies' Batman, Parsons should shine as the offensive wing Memphis has long needed.
"Parsons is likely to be the most significant shooter the Grizzlies have employed in the current era," Chris Herrington of the Memphis Commercial Appeal wrote. "He is also good enough with the ball to be a secondary playmaker and, with his size, is versatile enough to play both forward positions. Offensively, at least, he could be a perfect fit playing between Conley and Gasol."
Parsons was also an 83rd-percentile transition finisher last season, a number that should encourage the new-look Grizzlies. Their less-heralded moves focused on shooting (Troy Daniels), youth (Wade Baldwin, Deyonta Davis) and athleticism (James Ennis).
Similarly, Memphis' main subtractions serve to lower its age and number of Lance Stephensons. Matt Barnes and Chris Andersen looked like grit-and-grind naturals, but the late-30-somethings no longer fit the franchise's plans.
Rotation Breakdown
Harvest enough tea leaves, and there's a way to see that emphasizing pace-and-space means dialing back grit-and-grind staples like Tony Allen and Zach Randolph. And Fizdale's well-regarded player development skills give hope to former first-rounders Jordan Adams and Jarell Martin of cracking the rotation.
But the new coach isn't looking to rock the boat that violently. Not yet, anyway. He pointed to Memphis' long-standing core four as a primary reason for accepting the position.
"It doesn't hurt that they have Mike Conley and Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and Tony Allen," Fizdale told reporters at his introductory press conference. "You have winning ingredients already in place."
Add Parsons to the mix, and that's how Fizdale will open his rotation. The backcourt carries some question marks, but up front, Memphis will utilize its more seasoned options and bring its prospects along slowly.
| Mike Conley | Tony Allen | Chandler Parsons | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol |
| Wade Baldwin | Vince Carter | James Ennis | JaMychal Green | Brandan Wright |
| Andrew Harrison | Troy Daniels | Jarell Martin | Deyonta Davis | |
| Jordan Adams |
If Wade Baldwin IV shows his readiness in training camp, the rookie could become the Grizzlies' first reserve guard. He's loaded with physical tools, and if he can maintain his perimeter shooting while trimming his turnovers, he could fit both on and off the ball.
Troy Daniels and Vince Carter are perimeter specialists, but that will be an important role in Fizdale's offense. There's intriguing raw talent between Andrew Harrison and Adams, but they both need Fizdale to help kick-start their careers. Harrison spent last season in the NBA Developmental League, while Adams went back under the knife in June for his troublesome right knee.
Reasons for Confidence
Parsons brings considerable risk to his new digs, having had his past two seasons derailed by knee injuries. But if he stays on the court—he'll be limited in preseason—he's a weapon unlike any the Grizzlies have had in their six-year playoff run.
"This is the guy we've been seeking for a number of years," Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace said, per ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon. "He fits the description for that perimeter star to a T that we've been searching so aggressively for so many years."
Five different wings played at least 50 games for the Grizzlies last season. Parsons bettered them all in points, assists, field-goal percentage, three-point percentage and player efficiency rating. And mind you, he did that while seeing the fewest minutes since his rookie year and struggling out of the gate following May 2015 knee surgery.
As a unit, Grizzlies small forwards ranked 26th in scoring (16.8), 20th in assists (3.0), 29th in field-goal percentage (39.1) and 29th in three-point percentage (31.4), per HoopsStats.com.
The good, healthy Parsons can provide that volume (and then some) with better efficiency. He had a 25-game stretch from mid-January to mid-March where he averaged 19.6 points on 52.5 percent shooting (48.6 from three), 6.0 rebounds and 3.1 assists. Give the Grizzlies that, with healthy versions of Conley and Gasol, and this group could climb higher than the grit-and-grind mob made it.
Reasons for Concern
Not to spin a broken record here, but the Grizzlies still face their usual concerns about shooting and athleticism. Their projected starting lineup features only two players on the right side of 30, zero under the age of 27 and three who combined to make just 23 triples last season (Allen, Randolph and Gasol).
But Memphis has forged a winning formula around these components before. Plus, Fizdale's vision and the summer additions should give these Grizzlies more flexibility than past iterations.
Unfortunately, as this concern wanes, another, more ominous one rises in its place: This onetime basketball bully looks brittle. Wildly expensive and brittle, actually, as Rob Mahoney of Sports Illustrated observed:
"Neither Gasol nor Conley has had much luck staying healthy over the last few seasons. Parsons, just a year removed from a 'minor hybrid' microfracture surgery and a few months removed from a meniscus repair, joins them in their physical frustrations. All are quality players (to varying degrees) when healthy. To unite them, on three max salaries no less, tempts the basketball gods a bit.
"
Hopefully, the injury bug has grown tired of Beale Street. If not, Memphis faces the same limitations as last season—this time with a steeper medical bill.
Predictions
The Grizzlies understand what it takes to win. Since 2010-11, they have six playoff appearances, four postseason series victories and the seventh most wins in the league.
Fizdale won't ask them to reinvent the wheel. The fingerprints of grit-and-grind ball will remain visible, it's just that Memphis' size and toughness will now be complemented by superior spacing, tempo and bounce.
But it's hard to imagine at least one of those medical red flags doesn't result in a costly injury. And despite the roster reshuffling, Memphis may still lack the superstar required to be truly elite.
The Grizzlies won't be any fun to play against, and they shouldn't have trouble securing a postseason spot. But they look more capable of bothering the West's best than actually conquering them.
- Final Record: 47-35
- Division Standing: Second in Southwest
- Playoff Berth: Yes
- B/R League-wide Power Rankings Prediction: 13th
Unless noted otherwise, statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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