Washington Wizards Complete 2016-17 Preview
The Washington Wizards entered the 2015-16 season with Eastern Conference Finals potential, then limped into the All-Star break with dwindling playoff hopes.
A 4-9 stretch into the intermission left the Wizards at 23-28, 10th in the East. Their defense, fifth in efficiency just one season prior, ceded 108-plus points in 10 of those 13 contests.
"As an individual, you've got to take pride in guarding your man," John Wall said, per Todd Dybas of the Washington Times. "As a team, you've got to have your brother's back. That's something we haven't been doing."
The Wizards couldn't reconnect in time to save the campaign. Their defense kept leaking, their rotation was rocked by injury and they never matched—let alone surpassed—the sum of their individual parts.
A disappointing, postseason-less 41-41 finish sparked change in the District: Head coach Randy Wittman was ousted after four years on the job and replaced by former Oklahoma City Thunder skipper Scott Brooks. Washington also axed its head trainer, retooled its reserve unit and perhaps positioned itself for a playoff return.
Biggest Offseason Move
Wittman's long-smoldering coaching seat finally burned down, and the arrival of Brooks could give the franchise a foundation on which to build.
His credentials are undeniable: a .620 career winning percentage, three conference finals berths, one NBA Finals appearance, 2009-10's Coach of the Year award. There is, however, some question as to how much credit he deserves for that success.
He helped turn the Thunder into perennial contenders, but that might have happened anyway after drafting Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Serge Ibaka. Brooks helped bring those players along but couldn't help them clear the championship hurdle and failed to earn high marks for his offensive creativity and substitution patterns.
That said, his isolation-heavy offense may have been necessitated by his roster. Some of his most successful seasons were spoiled by ill-timed injuries, not poor decisions. He connects with his players—an area where Wittman had trouble—and has routinely produced two-way powers.
"It's hard to imagine Brooks being a disaster unless something crazy happens to the roster," Jerry Brewer of the Washington Post wrote. "He's a good coach. He contributed to building Oklahoma City's enviable culture of collegiality, hard work and professionalism. His floor is on an elevated platform."
The rest of Washington's offseason was spent strengthening the support staff. Longtime Wizards Nene and Garrett Temple were among those who exited in free agency, while a new bench was built with Ian Mahinmi, Andrew Nicholson, Jason Smith, Trey Burke and 2012 second-rounder Tomas Satoransky.
Rotation Breakdown
Brooks shouldn't tinker with his inherited starters. Wall and Bradley Beal are not only the engines of this organization, but they could be the NBA's best two-way backcourt, according to Brooks and The Vertical's Chris Mannix. Otto Porter and trade deadline addition Markieff Morris did nothing to lose their starting forward spots.
If any starter is facing stiff competition, it's 32-year-old center Marcin Gortat. The Wizards' largest summer expenditure was the four-year, $64 million pact given to Ian Mahinmi, who finished two spots above Gortat on ESPN.com's Real Plus-Minus center rankings. Washington plans to keep Gortat with the opening group, per CSN Mid-Atlantic's J. Michael, but Mahinmi will get a long look if the defense collapses again.
| John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat |
| Trey Burke | Tomas Satoransky | Kelly Oubre | Andrew Nicholson | Ian Mahinmi |
| Marcus Thornton | Jason Smith |
The Wizards also have two lottery tickets leading the perimeter reserves. The first is last summer's 15th overall pick Kelly Oubre, who oozes three-and-D potential out of his lanky 6'7" frame. The second is Satoransky, an athletic combo guard who could spot up alongside Wall, set up Beal and back up both.
"Satoransky is much-needed depth behind Bradley Beal and John Wall," Dybas wrote. "He played off the ball a lot in Barcelona and with it for his national team. Satoransky anticipates [that] his ability to create for others will translate right away."
Washington could round out its bench mob with a pair of bargains: former first-rounders Trey Burke and Andrew Nicholson. Burke fell out of favor with the Utah Jazz last season, but the scoring point guard set personal bests in field-goal (41.3) and three-point (34.4) shooting. Nicholson is a smooth post scorer and deft rebounder with a rapidly developing three-point stroke.
Jason Smith and Marcus Thornton are experienced, proven commodities who can contribute when needed. But Brooks would be wise to limit their minutes in favor of his younger, higher-ceiling players.
Reasons for Confidence
The stars rarely aligned for the Wizards last season, but when they did, this group looked capable of scaring the Eastern Conference elite.
On the surface, there was nothing extraordinary about Washington's most used trio of Wall, Porter and Gortat, who posted a plus-0.5 net efficiency rating in 1,435 minutes together. But those three soared when surrounded by the proper pieces—namely, a healthy Beal and a legitimate stretch 4 (Morris or Jared Dudley).
Each quintet logged more than 190 minutes together, and both produced efficiency marks that would have ranked among the NBA's five best.
With Morris around all season and Nicholson in tow, the Wizards should be able to keep a floor-spacing big out there. Whether they can get a healthy Beal—something they've never had for a full year—is unknown, but that scenario is what can spike Washington's projections.
Beal is already an electric scorer and dead-eye sniper. His per-36-minute marks last season featured 20.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 2.2 triples. Only seven players cleared all four numbers in 2015-16.
Impressive as that is, Brooks thinks Beal is still scratching the surface.
"He's 23 years old, going into his fifth season, and what he has done is pretty incredible," Brooks said, per CBS Washington's Bryan Frantz. "Yeah, we have to keep him healthy. ... I think he has the potential to be an All-Star, he's another guy that can be one of the best two-way players in the league."
Reasons for Concern
Washington's greatest strength isn't as great as it could be. The tantalizing Wall-Beal backcourt has never quite reached the level of its on-paper appearance.
Beal's field-goal percentage was almost six points better without Wall last season (48.9, up from 43.2). The Wizards were nearly as efficient with the Wall-Temple backcourt (plus-2.1 net rating) as they were with the Wall-Beal pairing (plus-2.7), per NBAWowy.com.
Washington needs both building blocks to help support a rise in the East, especially after the franchise failed to land a third star in free agency. But chemistry issues have prevented this tandem from being the asset it should be.
"I think a lot of times we have a tendency to dislike each other on the court..." Beal said, per Michael. "We got to be able to put that to the side. ... If we're not on the same page and we have our ups and downs, we'll keep dealing with the same problems."
This should be a good problem to have. Not only are the two immensely talented, but on paper, their skills have peanut-butter-and-jelly-type chemistry. Wall is the quick-twitch energizer who can slice set defenses with a five-star chef's precision. Beal's marksmanship pulls defenders past their comfort zones, and he's slick enough off the dribble to shake overzealous coverage.
The Wizards just need both players to appreciate the importance of the other. Shared leadership could prop each other up and the franchise around them, but further fights for control will keep Washington from generating any momentum.
Predictions
The Wizards picked a bad time to hit a rough patch. Their 41-41 record fell short of the 2016 playoff requirements, but the same mark nabbed the East's No. 6 seed just one season prior.
Moving from Wittman to Brooks is a clear positive, and building a younger supporting cast should bump the organization's long-term outlook a bit. But the Wizards will miss having a strong veteran presence—especially if Wall and Beal remain disconnected—and they seem unlikely to field an elite unite at either end.
There's a good chance Washington will improve its conference standing by essentially repeating the campaign. And despite all of the personnel changes, the 2016-17 season looks like it could mimic the last.
Barring a sizable jump by Beal—or colossal ones from Porter and Oubre—Washington won't crack the conference's top tier. But it will do just enough to book its third playoff trip in four years.
- Final Record: 42-40
- Division Standing: Third in Southeast
- Playoff Berth: Yes
- B/R League-wide Power Rankings Prediction: 18th
Unless noted otherwise, statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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