The Picks: NFL Week Four

Alex Tichenor@alextichenorCorrespondent IOctober 4, 2009

GLENDALE, AZ - SEPTEMBER 27:  Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts prepares to throw against the Arizona Cardinals during the game at University of Phoenix Stadium on September 27, 2009 in Glendale, Arizona.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Last Weeks Picks: 11-5

(Upset of the Week: 1-0, Game of the Week: 1-0, Lock of the Week:1-0)

Overall: 30-18

(Upset of the week: 1-1, Game of the Week: 2-1, Lock of the Week: 1-0)

*spread picks in parenthesis


Chicago vs. Detroit

Detroit broke the streak, but run into a problem in this game. Facing a Bears team that beat Pittsburgh in their house is bad medicine for a win streak. Forte will finally find his groove against a porous Lions defense and send Detroit on another losing streak.

Chicago 31, Detroit 20 (Bears -10.5)


Cleveland vs. Cincinnati

Last year this game was a anybody's for the taking, but this year it will be a one-sided affair. The Bengals are a good team, with a lot of the thanks going to Cedric Benson. Yes, Cedric Benson. He's been an animal this season and will run over the Browns even in the Dawg Pound. Ochocinco will continue his comeback season with another nice game.

Cincinnati 28, Cleveland 13 (Bengals -5.5)


Indianapolis vs. Seattle

Matt Hasselbeck will not play in this game, which spells trouble for Seattle. Seneca Wallace brings memories of Jason Campbell; he doesn't play horribly, but he does nothing to win the game.

Julius Jones certainly isn't going to win the game either. Manning will just pick apart the Seattle secondary and open things up on the ground as well. Donald Brown has a breakout game here.

Indianapolis 37, Seattle 17 (Colts -8.5)


Kansas City vs. New York Giants

Is there anybody who ever thought giving Matt Cassel was a very good idea. He had an ideal situation in New England with Moss and Welker and 20 million average running backs.

In KC, he has one receiver that is above average, one or two average running backs, and a horrible offensive line. The Giants are going to  be all over Cassel in this game. Jacobs is going to run all over the Chiefs horrible run defense as well. This has all the makings of a blowout.

New York Giants 34, Kansas City 10 (Giants -9.5) (Lock of the Week)


Washington vs. Tampa Bay

This is a clash of pure failure. Washington has, yet again, failed to turn offseason acquisitions into a good football team. Tampa inexplicably just went back to square one and made one of their minor assistants the head coach. Has that ever worked out? This is the stinker game of the week.

If somebody has a choice between cutting their fingers off or watching this game, it would be a tough decision. Washington has more talent than the Bucs and that will prevail Clinton Portis gets a perfect opportunity to redeem his bad start against the awful Buccaneers defense.

Washington 20, Tampa Bay 12 (Redskins -7.5)


Jacksonville vs. Tennessee

It's do or die time for the Titans. If they aren't out of it already, they will definitely be out of the playoff race if they lose this game. They simply have too much skill and good coaching to lose their first four games.

Kerry Collins will actually show up in this game and Chris Johnson will break a couple of long runs. Maurice Jone-Drew won't be getting anything against Tennessee's run D.

Tennessee 27, Jacksonville 10 (Titans -2.5)


Houston vs. Oakland

JaMarcus Russell is turning out to be a Ryan Leaf type bust; except at least Leaf was taken second. The Raiders could have landed Calvin Johnson, who was the biggest can't miss player  in a very long time. There's always the chance they could have screwed that up too, but we'll never know.

Houston has been ultra inconsistent this season, but playing Oakland at home is the perfect recipe for a bounce back game. Slaton also has a perfect recipe for getting his season on track.

Andre Johnson probably won't torch Asomugha, so Walter and Daniels will be the big targets in the receiving game. The Houston offense is going to have a big, big game.

Houston 35, Oakland 13 (Texans -9.5)


New England vs. Baltimore (Game of the Week)

New England had a nice bounce back against Atlanta last week.  Brady and Co. have a bit of a tougher matchup against Baltimore though. Baltimore's offense if firing on all cylinders and New England will have to play extremely well to come up with a win.

Flacco is still a second-year QB and we all saw what happened to Matt Ryan last week against New England. Guys like Flacco and McGahee will slow down in this tough game and Brady will finally find his touch. This will be a lower scoring game than many expect though.

New England 23, Baltimore 21 (Ravens +2.5)


New Orleans vs. New York Jets

The Saints' offense was slowed down by Buffalo. That isn't a good sign going against the Jets' defense. The Saints might be playing on the turf in this one, but New York has a fast defense that could benefit from playing on the fast surface. The Saints will struggle against the Jets stifling defense and Mark Sanchez will continue his development into a very good NFL quarterback.

New York Jets 26, New Orleans 20 (Jets +6.5) (Upset of the Week)


Miami vs. Buffalo

Chad Henne makes his debut against a team that shut down Drew Brees last week. Not good. Buffalo has been pretty decent so far, and that's without TO making an impact at all. If Owens can get involved then the Bills can actually be a good team.

They will be able to beat the Pennington-less Dolphins in a close game. Owens will get involved in this game.

Buffalo 20, Miami 16 (Buffalo -1.5)


Denver vs. Dallas

Denver has surprised everybody by starting 3-0 this year; including themselves. They have the luck factor involved as well, as evidences by their once-every-10-years miracle in week one.

Orton hasn't played extremely well but has played well enough to win games and will play that way again. The defense has been great, despite playing against bad teams, and will be able to stop Dallas. Denver takes another step towards having a decent year with a win over the 'Boys.

Denver 19, Dallas 17 (Denver +3.5)


San Francisco vs. St. Louis

St. Louis might be worse than the Lions of 2008. At least Detroit was competitive in a lot of games last season, St. Louis is going to get blown out by every good team they face.

San Francisco is a good team that they face. Frank Gore's injury hurts the Niners, but they played fine without him against Minnesota last week before a heat crushing loss. Singletary will fire the boys up to annihilate the Rams.

San Francisco 26, St. Louis 7 (49ers -10.5)


Pittsburgh vs. San Diego

It's do or die time for Pittsburgh. They cannot have a 1-3 start, especially with the Ravens and upstart Bengals in their division. Roethlisberger has been pretty good in the clutch and Pittsburgh outplayed San Diego is both meetings last year.

However, both meeting last season were in the cold and Rivers, with Tomlinson back, should be able to throw on the Steelers very well, especially with Polamalu out. Vincent Jackson is going deep in this one.

This is such a great game. Both team teams really need to go home with a victory in here. Pittsburgh gets the nod just for the home-field advantage at Heinz.

Pittsburgh 20, San Diego 17 (Chargers +6.5)


Minnesota vs. Green Bay

Brett Favre makes his debut against the team that he turned against (or vice versa, depending on what story you believe) in what should be a great Monday nighter. The only complaint would be that this game should be in Green Bay, so that Packers fans could throw a bunch of cheese at Favre.

Green Bay will definitely be more motivated than Minnesota to win this game. Guys who were there with Favre will be out to get him. Any interview you see with them, it's easy to tell they hate his guts. Rodgers will tear up the Vikes through the air and Favre will throw a pick six, further evidencing Green Bay's decision to go with Rodgers.

Green Bay 27, Minnesota 17 (Packers -3.5)


Game of the Week: New England vs. Baltimore

Upset of the Week: New York Jets over New Orleans

Lock of the Week: New York over Kansas City


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