2016 NFL Predictions: Dark-Horse Super Bowl Picks Certain to Surprise

NFL fans likely think of the usual suspects when it comes to Super Bowl contenders this year.

The old guard rules the drill, with teams such as the New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers making any list (sorry, Mark Sanchez-led Denver Broncos).

But what about the underdogs?

With training camp underway, optimism has swept the league and the sky truly seems the limit for every franchise. Expectations come crashing back down after Week 1, but, hey, careful analysis right now can show which teams have plenty of reason to set eyes on a Lombardi Trophy.

Here's a look at a few not-so-popular Super Bowl picks based on past performances, projections and a variety of other factors.

Baltimore Ravens

A few years ago the Baltimore Ravens would have never appeared on a list like this.

Then last season happened.

In 2015, the Ravens won all of five games and watched as the Cincinnati Bengals positioned themselves as the leaders of the AFC North, going 12-4. The Pittsburgh Steelers even won 10 games. Cleveland's expected three-win season was the only thing stopping the Ravens from serving as the doormat of the division.

But there's a silver lining—injuries. Baltimore lost the following critical names to injuries at one point or another last season:

• Running back Justin Forsett
• Linebacker Terrell Suggs
• Wide receiver Steve Smith
• Wide receiver Breshad Perriman
• Tight end Dennis Pitta
• Left tackle Eugene Monroe
• Quarterback Joe Flacco

Five wins doesn't seem too bad, does it?

Baltimore gets most of those guys back this year, swapping the retired Monroe for No. 6 pick Ronnie Stanley. In theory, Flacco will have Forsett and a rejuvenated Terrance West to lean on in the ground game and targets such as Perriman, Mike Wallace and Maxx Williams to hit through the air. The defense improved with the addition of Eric Weddle.

Over at Odds Shark, Baltimore sits on 33-1 odds to win it all. There are bigger underdogs from an odds standpoint, but one's mind doesn't go right to Baltimore when one digs into the AFC. 

Maybe it should.

Prediction: 11 wins, AFC Championship Game appearance

Indianapolis Colts

Like Baltimore, one simply doesn't think of the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts lost a grip on the AFC South last year, watching as the Houston Texans won the division.  Andrew Luck and the Colts limped to a .500 mark and also had to deal with major injuries. Even worse, it's hard to name what the Colts did over the offseason to improve.

Getting healthy is the major thing.

Luck only appeared in seven games last year, completing a woeful 55.3 percent of his passes for 1,881 yards and 15 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.

It's important to remember this, though: When he was healthy, the Colts beat the Denver Broncos and lost to the New England Patriots by all of seven points. Luck props up the talent around him, and as long as he's up, Indianapolis can contend in the AFC South before hitting the postseason.

This isn't to say the Colts didn't improve at all, either. First-round pick Ryan Kelly should provide some stability along the offensive line at center. Second-round pick T. J. Green looks like he could contribute at safety, too, based on talk from defensive coordinator Ted Monachino.

“T.J. has made a quantum leap since we … came back from minicamp in terms of his understanding of the system,” Monachino said, according to the Indianapolis Star's Stephen Holder. “He’s a rare cat and we think he’s going to be a very good player."

Elsewhere on the defensive side of things, the addition of corner Patrick Robinson should give the unit a boost across from elite presence Vontae Davis.

Everything hinges on Luck staying healthy. If that happens, it's going to be hard to criticize the Colts as a team getting a pass into the playoffs from an easy division.

Prediction: 12 wins, AFC Championship Game appearance

Minnesota Vikings

Look, the Minnesota Vikings won the NFC North last year, but it's like the Bengals—does anyone really write them in as divisional winners next year, let alone Super Bowl contenders?

Not really, and especially not Minnesota. Head coach Mike Zimmer has a good thing going on with his defense, as always, but even casual fans understand quarterback Teddy Bridgewater hasn't hit the elite level and Adrian Peterson only continues to get older.

Minnesota certainly has the talent to change the perception, though. Even though he only tossed 14 scores last year over 16 games, Bridgewater did complete 65.3 percent of his passes and finally appears to have a dynamic receiving threat with rookie Laquon Treadwell.

As Matt Vensel of the Minnesota Star Tribune pointed out, Treadwell has looked good alongside mainstays such as Stefon Diggs and tight end Kyle Rudolph:

Peterson, too, still managed 1,485 yards last year. The biggest red flag was the offensive line, which gave up 33 sacks of Bridgewater. Minnesota went out in free agency and got two new starters to address the issue, guard Alex Boone and tackle Andre Smith.

Defense won't ever be an issue for a guru like Zimmer, who went out and got a first-round value in the second during the draft with corner Mackensie Alexander.

Minnesota has appeared in the playoffs twice in the past six years and hadn't won the division since 2009. With Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay and Detroit seeming strong as usual, it's easy to dismiss last year as a fluke, the Vikings a team ready to get lost in not only the division, but a brutal schedule centered on last year's division win.

After a concentrated effort to improve in all the necessary areas, Minnesota doesn't need to sit as favorites. In fact, even after a division triumph, the underdog role fits the current roster quite well.

Prediction: 12 wins, NFC Championship Game appearance

Stats are courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of Wednesday. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.