The San Antonio Spurs Are Gonna Be Just Fine, Despite Tim Duncan's Retirement

Tim Duncan's decision to retire changes the San Antonio Spurs forever.

They cannot replace him or everything for which he stood. Soldiering on without him, for the first time in nearly two decades, will be a self-admitted challenge.

"Timmy's not walking through the door to save us anymore," general manager R.C. Buford told The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski (via Project Spurs' Paul Garcia). "And now we're on our own."

News of Duncan's departure rattled the masses. There were hints that this was coming—most notably a showing-his-age performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round of the playoffs. But the idea of an NBA, and of a San Antonio squad, that doesn't feature Duncan is still settling in.

And that's OK.

Fortunately for the Spurs, adapting to life without their five-time champion will be easier on them than it is for everyone else.

More Than Just Duncan's Team

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Surviving without Duncan is not a new concept.

“I haven’t talked to Timmy in about 11 years,” coach Gregg Popovich quipped in May on whether Duncan would seek his retirement advice, per the San Antonio Express-News' Melissa Rohlin. “And Manu [Ginobili] stopped talking to me about three or four years ago, so I doubt it highly. They’re just going to come in and say, ‘Pop, this is what I’m doing.’ And whatever they say, that’s what I’ll do.”

These verbal gags have become a staple of any Popovich conversation that demands he evaluate San Antonio's future. And while they remain hysterical, they were, in hindsight, telling.

Without any idea of when or how Duncan would retire, the Spurs have been preparing for his exit since 2012.

They reconfigured the offense, passing the first-option torch to Kawhi Leonard. They pulled out all the stops to poach LaMarcus Aldridge from the Portland Trail Blazers last summer, an uncharacteristically aggressive move from a franchise that has long preferred homespun successors to outside replacements.

This past season, more so than any other year, proved the Spurs were ready for the next generation. They earned a franchise-record 67 victories, posted the highest net rating in the league (11.8) and tied the NBA's record for wins by 25 or more points with 15—all while Duncan registered career lows in minutes played (1,536) and usage rate (17.6):

In many ways, 2015-16 marked the inception of the post-Duncan era. The Spurs played more minutes without him (2,405) than with (1,536). That's never happened before. 

And yet, during that time, they outscored opponents by 10.5 points per 100 possessions, a net rating that would have ranked third among all 30 teams. Left alone, the 2015-16 Spurs had enough to thrive in Duncan's absence. They have decided to push for more anyway.

Prepping Another Leap

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San Antonio will replace the face of its franchise with Pau Gasol, the closest thing to a clone Duncan has known over the last five years, maybe ever. 

Just look at how their statistical splits stack up through the last half-decade:

Since 2011-12	PTS	FG%	REB	AST	STL	BLK
Tim Duncan	18.1	49.8	11.5	3.5	0.9	2.4
Pau Gasol	18.0	48.4	11.2	3.8	0.5	1.8

Passing the interior baton from a 40-year-old Duncan to a 36-year-old Gasol is a lateral move at worst. Gasol's game is ready-made for the Spurs' system. He can score in the post, shoot beyond 10 feet from the basket and serve as a screener and secondary playmaker.

There will be an adjustment period on the defensive end. Gasol blocks plenty of shots, but he doesn't rotate over to penetrators as quickly or step out to the perimeter off switches to cut off ball-handlers with the same gusto. It remains to be seen whether he can be the paragon of defensive communication Duncan was.

Still, Duncan's and Gasol's rim-protecting numbers were almost identical last season. And Duncan only saved one more point per 36 minutes than Gasol on defense, according to NBAMath.com. 

Even if Duncan's void proves too big for any one player to fill, his departure opens more time for Leonard to play the 4—a shift in style the Spurs have thus far been reluctant to embrace.

Less than 10 percent of Leonard's career minutes have come at power forward. San Antonio has preferred to deploy traditionally sized lineups that dictate the pace and control the paint. But playing Leonard up a spot, beside Aldridge or Gasol, is a tantalizing option in today's mismatched-obsessed NBA.

Looming Obstacles

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If you're still thinking this process will include twists and turns and growing pains, you're right. The Spurs have problems—issues that predate Duncan's ride into the sunset.

Point guard has become a sore spot. Tony Parker is 34 and often loses steam on both ends of the floor by game's end. Patty Mills isn't a true playmaker. Ginobili notched the team's second-highest assist percentage (23.6) and can play point swingman. But going on 39, he is only slightly better suited to hold his own against younger floor generals. Andre Miller could still walk back through that door, but he's also on the wrong end of 40.

Reserve bigs Boris Diaw (Utah Jazz) and David West (Warriors), along with garbage-time superhero Boban Marjanovic (Detroit Pistons), are all gone, significantly compromising San Antonio's interior depth. The Leonard-Aldridge combo helps offset a hollowed-out frontcourt rotation, but their partnership is unproven.

The pair saw 177 minutes together through the regular season and playoffs as a 4 and 5, respectively, according to NBAWowy.com. Though the Spurs scored like the league's best offense during that time, they were barely at plus-2.5 points per 100 possessions, with a defensive rating that would have ranked dead last.

And then there's the cultural shock to consider amid all the on-court change. As Tim Cato of SB Nation underscored:

"

Certainly, Kawhi Leonard seems like a natural candidate to continue that culture as a no-nonsense star. But he's still not Duncan. The Spurs knows they would be nowhere without Duncan. They know how important he has been to not just their success, but their metamorphosis into a franchise that everyone strives to replicate.

As much as San Antonio can try to emulate Duncan, there's nothing like actually having him as a living, breathing example in the locker room every day. And now, as timeless as he seemed, that consistent example isn't one anymore.

"

The Spurs have, by their standards, undergone a thorough cosmetic face lift. They are not inoculated against failure—they just come pretty damn close. Wherever there's a problem, there's almost always an in-house solution.

A Near-Seamless Transition

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Danny Green, Jonathon Simmons and Leonard will keep the perimeter defense humming, making it more likely the Spurs can hang during those times Aldridge or Gasol is the primary rim protector. Kyle Anderson can soak up time at power forward and was, statistically, the team's second-best defensive reserve last season, behind only West, per NBAMath.com. 

Anderson and Simmons seem ready to pick up more slack. The Spurs are working them out, together, between five and six days a week, according to ESPN.com's Michael C. Wright.

Ginobili, Mills and Parker, meanwhile, will give San Antonio enough playmaking. And their defensive shortcomings can still be masked, thanks to Green's and Leonard's ability to switch onto point guards.

Leonard, already an MVP candidate, should pitch in as a point forward. His assist percentage has, for the most part, been on a steady rise since he entered the league. And he just posted the highest usage rate of his career (25.8), so he's used to playing on the ball.

Ronald Cortes/Getty Images

Once again, the Spurs are built to play however they please, big or small, explosive or methodical. They have options, both unproven and established, to transition to the next phase of their existence—alternatives and contingencies that precede the task at hand.

Duncan may be gone, but the Spurs as we've come to know them are alive as ever.

Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.