New York Knicks Are Rolling the Dice on Derrick Rose But Aren't Betting Big
On June 22, the New York Knicks swung a trade for Derrick Rose in a stunning predraft move.
In exchange for the former All-Star point guard, Justin Holiday and a 2017 second-round pick, New York sent Robin Lopez, Jerian Grant and Jose Calderon to the Chicago Bulls.
Media and fans alike have seemingly separated themselves into two camps since then: It was either a windfall for the Knicks or a disaster. There are very few occupying the vast middle ground, even though that's where the truth most likely lies.
Trade Value and Cap Space Aren't What They Seem
As has been the case with many trades involving the Knicks, they acquired the biggest name in this deal. Rose is a three-time All-Star and, in 2011, became the youngest player in NBA history to be named the league's MVP. His name still carries a good deal of cache around the league.
Lopez is an unassuming center with career averages of 8.5 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Last year was just the third time in eight seasons that he's averaged at least 10 points per game, and he has never cracked double-digit rebounds or two blocks a night. Grant struggled for most of his rookie season and couldn't even get off the bench at various points of the year. Calderon was perhaps the worst starting point guard in the league.
However, Lopez and Kristaps Porzingis formed one of the best interior defense duos in the NBA last season. Lopez is also on a great contract: His four-year deal carried a starting salary of $12,650,000—equal to around 18.1 percent of the 2015-16 salary cap of $70 million. A similar deal this offseason would require a starting salary of $16,985,000, given that the cap is expected to jump to $94 million, per Shams Charania of The Vertical.
Grant was a first-round pick just over a year ago. The Knicks know better than anyone that even disappointing first-round picks can be dealt for value later. (They selected Grant with a pick they obtained by sending 2013 first-rounder Tim Hardaway Jr. to the Atlanta Hawks after two seasons of considerably below-average play.)
In any event, Rose was headed into the final year of his contract, and it was an open secret that he was not expected to be back with the Bulls beyond the 2016-17 season. On the most recent episode of The Vertical Podcast with Woj, Adrian Wojnarowski said, "There was no market for Derrick Rose. There was nowhere for him to go. They had been shopping him. I was told they had shopped him at the trade deadline last year … To me, it's surprising the Knicks didn't wait, hold out. To me, they should have taken him into space and given up next to nothing."
Of the players involved in the deal, only Lopez was on a guaranteed contract beyond the 2016-17 season. His $13,788,500 cap number for 2017-18 would have eaten into whatever cap space the Knicks had under their belts during the summer of 2017, when the free-agent class is expected to be much stronger than this summer's group.
However, the Knicks will have a nearly $32 million charge (150 percent of Rose's 2016-17 salary) attached to their books for the summer of 2017, per Basketball Insiders, unless they elect to renounce his Bird rights. If they attempt to keep Rose, the Knicks would actually lose cap space until he signed a deal that started with a first-year salary less than the amount due to Lopez in 2017-18.
The Safety Net
If Rose gets hurt or doesn't play well, the Knicks can wash their hands at the end of next season and enter the summer of 2017 with loads of cap space, depending on what they do in free agency this summer. They'd have then dealt away two assets for only a year of Rose, but one can argue it was worth a shot to see if he could recapture the magic.
If Rose does play well, though, that puts the Knicks in an even more precarious position. The best-case scenario is that Rose returns to something resembling his former self and, along with Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and whomever the Knicks sign this summer, helps lead them back to the playoffs for the first time in four years.
It's difficult to envision them getting a better return on their investment than that this season.
Would they then pay the soon-to-be 28-year-old point guard who just led them back to the playoffs but also has a history of serious knee injuries big money on a long-term deal, or would they let him walk?
This is the franchise that signed Amar'e Stoudemire to an uninsured $100 million contract and traded for Antonio McDyess. It's easy to say that Rose would be different, but it's also no sure thing.
Shining in the Big Apple?
Rose may or may not still be a star, but plenty of other players around the league still view him that way. For example, USA Today's Sam Amick reported the Knicks have "earned their way onto (Kevin) Durant's radar, having traded for Derrick Rose recently to create quite the combination with Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis."
Wojnarowski, however, painted the Knicks as being on the outside of the Durant sweepstakes looking in. According to ESPN.com's Ian Begley, the Knicks, as of now, do not have a meeting scheduled with the summer's best free agent.
Rose at least seems likely to give the Knicks a leg up in the race for Joakim Noah given that the two are close friends and have already been spotted hanging out together in New York, per Marc Berman of the New York Post. How much the Knicks should really want Noah is up for debate, though.
Like Rose, he has often been injured and ineffective over the last few seasons. The effective version of Noah may already be in the rearview mirror, as he's a high-energy big man dependent on his motor and athleticism.
Noah also seems likely to command a sizable contract, while the Knicks' biggest needs currently lie on the wing. They have Porzingis, Anthony and Kyle O'Quinn available to soak up frontcourt minutes. Their only shooting guard or small forward under contract is Justin Holiday.
Next summer's free-agent class is heavy on star point guard talent, including Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul of the Los Angeles Clippers. It's unlikely that Rose would go recruiting them, and Knicks President Phil Jackson seems unlikely to field a team that starts two point guards given his affinity for big backcourt players. If Rose is still on the roster and has played well, he could perhaps be a part of the draw for other free agents, though.
On the Court (Hopefully)
Rose is the most talented point guard the Knicks have had since at least Stephon Marbury, if not going all the way back to Mark Jackson or even Walt Frazier. (No Knicks point guard has made the All-Star team since Jackson in 1989.)
Make no mistake, peak Rose was as talented as any point guard of his or almost any other era. You don't become the youngest MVP in league history by a fluke. (Unless you want to call media members refusing to vote for LeBron James because he signed with the Miami Heat a fluke.) Rose averaged 25.0 points, 4.1 rebounds and 7.7 assists per game that year; only six other players have ever topped 25-4-7 in a season, including James and Westbrook.
Granted, Rose has not been at peak form for quite some time. Among the 117 players who were on the floor for at least 2,000 minutes last season, he ranked 82nd in player efficiency rating, 114th in both value over replacement player and box plus/minus and 115th in win shares per 48 minutes. He was also 81st out of 85 qualifying point guards and 438th out of 462 qualifying players in ESPN's real plus-minus.
If advanced stats aren't your cup of tea, you can stick with more traditional measures, which have also fallen off steeply from his pre-injury career, especially from his peak:
| YEAR | GAME % | PTS | REB | AST | FTA | FG% | 3PT% |
| Pre-Injury | 89.4% | 21.0 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 46.4% | 31.0% |
| Post-Injury | 38.7% | 16.9 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 41.2% | 29.1% |
| 2010-11 | 98.8% | 25.0 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 43.5% | 31.2% |
| 2015-16 | 80.5% | 16.4 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 42.7% | 29.3% |
Still, even a shadow version of MVP Rose is a major improvement on the Knicks' point guard situation from last season, which may have been the worst in the league.
The 2015-16 Knicks finished last in drives per game for the second consecutive season. Rose, even in his diminished state, remains one of the league's most aggressive point guards when attacking the basket. He alone averaged 8.9 drives per game last season, more than half the Knicks' team total of 15.5 per game.
Rose's drives were also some of the NBA's most efficient. Among the 61 players league-wide who averaged at least five drives per game, he was tied with LeBron for seventh by scoring on those plays 76.9 percent of the time. That figure was better than the marks of James Harden, Kemba Walker, Kyrie Irving and Russell Westbrook.
Rose does not often pass on his drives, however, so those pegging his presence as a boon for Porzingis' pick-and-pop game may want to pump the brakes. Among the aforementioned group of 61 players, Rose ranked 53rd by passing on only 23.3 percent of his drives. When he did pass, he was more likely to turn the ball over (7.1 percent) than create an assist (6.5 percent).
It's also not clear what else this version of Rose brings to the table. He has been a minus outside shooter his entire career, having made just 30.2 percent of his 1,158 three-point attempts over the past eight years. That's tied for the fourth-worst conversion rate among the 143 players who have attempted at least 1,000 threes since he joined the league. That percentage has only gone down since his first ACL tear, as he's made a dismal 29.1 percent of his treys over the past four seasons.
Rose's ability to get to the free-throw line was once one of his greatest strengths, but that skill has all but evaporated since his series of knee injuries. He averaged 6.9 free-throw attempts a game at his peak but slipped last year to a career-low 2.7 per game. Even after adjusting for minutes played, he got to the line only about half as often as he did the year he won MVP.
Teams don't respect Rose's jumper and know he wants to get into the paint, which has eaten into his assist numbers as well. Passing lanes simply aren't there because opponents are confident they can contain his drives using one man and a late helper near the rim.
All of those diminished skills would be less of an issue if Rose made up for it on defense, but that has never been his strong suit.
Even at his peak, Rose was a player who former Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau hid within his defensive schemes. He's not as poor a defender as Calderon, but he is a clear negative at this point in his career. The Bulls were 3.9 points per 100 possessions better defensively without Rose on the floor during the 2015-16 season, which is not far out of line with prior years.
You don't rank 242nd out of 272 players in defensive box plus/minus and 82nd among 85 point guards in defensive real plus-minus by accident. The eye test backs all of this up, too. Rose's lateral quickness has long been one of his best assets on offense, but it has never translated to the less glamorous side of the floor.
And then, of course, there are the injuries. Rose has played in only 127 of a possible 328 games over the last four seasons and has not been very effective during those games, save for the final 21-game stretch of the season that just ended.
In the end, the Knicks dealt a few somewhat valuable assets for a player who, at his peak, would fit their needs to a T. But his peak happened five years and countless injuries ago, and he hasn't come particularly close to approaching the same level since.
With this trade, the Knicks are mostly hoping he can put the lightning back in the bottle.
All statistics via NBA.com or Basketball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
