7 Keys That Will Decide Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals
Six games into the 2016 NBA Finals, both the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers own three double-digit wins, three double-digit defeats and identical point totals (610-610). It's a lopsided thriller, and it's barreling toward the most exciting setting in sports—a winner-take-all Game 7.
The Warriors seemed like they'd be parading by now after building a 3-1 lead and a 29-point scoring edge over the first four games. It's been a series of (mostly) unpredictable events ever since—a controversial suspension, a season-ending knee injury, a $25,000 mouthpiece toss—with LeBron James' otherworldly performances being the lone exception.
The Warriors enter Sunday's showdown with home-court advantage, which has granted victory to 15 of the previous 18 Game 7 hosts in the Finals. They're also looking to add the ultimate validation on their record-setting 73-win campaign.
While the Cavs are attempting to become the first finalist to win after falling into a 3-1 hole, they've already defied the odds. Cleveland is just the third team to force a Finals Game 7 under those circumstances. This team also has the most dominant individual in this series, plus the motivation provided by the city's five-decade championship drought.
This has all the makings of a coin flip, but seven areas hold the key to Sunday's outcome.
7. Finding Harrison Barnes
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Harrison Barnes has top-prospect status in his past and quite possibly a max contract in his future. But his present involves a disappearing act that would make the world's top illusionists envious.
After hitting on more than 47 percent of his field goals and 39 percent of his three-pointers the past two seasons, the 24-year-old swingman's shooting touch has numbed. Game 6 marked the first time in more than a year that he went without a field goal. He's just 2-of-22 and a minus-26 during 54 minutes over the last two contests.
Cleveland is granting him acres of open real estate, and he's still failing to convert. But Golden State won't go away from him. Barnes' ability to bother bigger players is one of many keys to the Warriors' small-ball defense. And history suggests this is nothing more than an incredibly ill-timed dry spell.
"I'm really confident in Harrison," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said, per Bay Area News Group's Carl Steward. "He's going to start Sunday, and he's still one of our key guys."
Depth must be an advantage for Golden State, as LeBron James has granted Cleveland a decisive superstar edge. Shooting slump and all, Barnes is still the best non-Big Three scoring option the Warriors have. If he's losing minutes to Brandon Rush or Leandro Barbosa on Sunday, it's hard to imagine the Oracle faithful celebrating a championship win.
6. How Tristan Thompson Travels
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Tristan Thompson is not a shot-blocker, floor-spacer or post-scorer. He's an $82 million specialist.
That's not a criticism but rather an observation.
But he's been a major difference-maker in this series. With Kevin Love looking increasingly unplayable—minus-eight for the finals—Thompson is the one punishing an undersized, depleted Warriors frontcourt. He's the series leader in plus/minus (plus-38) and rebounds per 36 minutes (12.6), as his size, athleticism and motor have allowed him to play over defenders.
"The way he's been playing, hustling down, getting loose balls, rebounding, knocking down his free throws when they try and foul him to slow the game down. He's been doing a hell of a job," J.R. Smith said, per USA Today's Michael Singer. "He's worth every penny he's got."
Thompson understands his role and maximizes his impact. He's been a beast on the boards, a tenacious rim-runner and an explosive finisher underneath. The Warriors have tried attacking him with perimeter players, but his lateral quickness has largely kept those situations under control.
Still, Cleveland needs the fifth-year big man to travel better than he has. He's averaging 13.0 points, 84.2 percent shooting and 12.0 rebounds at home this series compared to just 8.0 points, 40.9 percent shooting and 10.7 boards on the road. As B/R Insights observed, he's also averaging 14.7 rebounds during Cleveland's wins and only 8.0 in losses.
5. Immediate Urgency
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The Warriors were a first-quarter wrecking ball during the regular season: No team averaged more points (29.8), shot better from range (43.0 percent) or built bigger leads (plus-5.0 points per game) in the opening frame.
But Cleveland has done the bulk of the early demolition this series. The Cavs have held the Warriors below 20 first-quarter points three different times, twice winning those frames by at least 17. Cleveland is outscoring Golden State 27.7-22.5 and enjoying sizable edges in field-goal (50.8-41.1) and three-point (35.7-29.1) percentages.
The Cavs' aggressiveness speaks to battles they have controlled of late. During Games 5 and 6, they claimed massive victories in both fast-break scoring (47-19) and paint points (90-60). The Warriors have been routinely backed against the wall, though that's admittedly where they've done some of their best work this season.
"All season, the Warriors have been habitual procrastinators, waiting until the absolute final moment to finish their assignment," The Vertical's Michael Lee wrote. "They had to win their final four games of the regular season to break Michael Jordan's 72-win record. They had to win three in a row to defeat Oklahoma City."
Perhaps this is a fitting position, then. But the Warriors have again exhausted their margin for error. They cannot struggle out of the gates Sunday, because they'll need to keep their crowd engaged and the Cavs' confidence in check.
4. Secondary Stars
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The NBA couldn't ask for a better superstar clash than LeBron James and Stephen Curry going head-to-head for the world title. And if either MVP falters in the spotlight, he'll almost certainly watch the other bask in championship bliss.
But assuming each answers the bell—according to B/R Insights, Curry (34.5 points per game) and James (34.4) have the highest career Game 7 scoring averages of the three-point era (minimum two games)—this contest could hinge on the sidekicks.
One All-Star-level showing from Klay Thompson, Draymond Green or Kyrie Irving might mean the difference between parading and fishing.
Thompson is only two games removed from a 37-point, six-triple outburst, but he's been a sporadic sniper this series. Green looked like an early MVP favorite after tallying 44 points, 18 rebounds, 12 assists and five steals over the first two games. But his most memorable moment since was delivering the suspension-drawing blow below James' belt.
Irving entered Game 6 having reeled off three consecutive 30-plus-point outings, shooting a blistering 55.8 percent (50 from three) over that stretch. He was seemingly on his way to another with a 20-point showing during the first half Thursday. But he tweaked his left foot after intermission and managed just three points on 1-of-6 shooting in the second half.
Irving says he's "good" for Game 7, per Cleveland.com's Chris Fedor, and the Cavs must hope he's right. They can't rely on James alone, and they've yet to find a steady third scorer this series. Plus, they should expect the Warriors to challenge Irving defensively, regardless of how his foot looks.
3. Andre Iguodala's Health
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Andre Iguodala's Game 6 performance was literally painful to watch. After straining his back early, the 32-year-old hobbled through 30 gutty minutes.
He moved like someone who just exited a cross-country car ride. His genius-level basketball IQ still put him in the right spots more often than not, but everything was stiff. The Warriors called the ailment "lower back tightness" and later announced he'd had a heat pack applied in the locker room.
Iguodala did not address the media after Game 6, so it's impossible to get a feel for his condition. But the eye test determined it didn't look good. He's such a vital puzzle piece as a primary stopper and supplemental playmaker, scorer and shooter, and with their defense already compromised by Andrew Bogut's absence, the Warriors can ill afford to be without Iguodala.
James is bulldozing anyone in his path right now, but Iggy still provides the most resistance on Golden State's side. James is shooting 48.7 percent (36.0 from three) and averaging 6.3 turnovers per 100 possessions with Iguodala on the floor compared to 62.1 percent (60.0) and only 2.5 giveaways per 100 when he's not.
"If [Iguodala is] not healthy for Game 7, who knows what James might do?" Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote.
2. Unanimous MVP Looking the Part
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Remember regular-season Stephen Curry—captain of the league's first 73-win vessel, unprecedented unanimous MVP, the first scoring champ with a 50/40/90 slash line?
Will the bane of every defense's existence surface in this series? He hasn't yet. His scoring is down nearly seven points per game from his season average (23.5 from 30.1). He's had more sub-40 shooting nights (two) than 50-plus outings (one). He's totaled more assists than turnovers only twice in six games.
"Curry has been good, but not great, in this series," NBA.com's Shaun Powell wrote. "The splash moments and the insane shots have been scattered, and certainly not damaging the last two games."
The Warriors need Curry to play the part of Human Torch. Crossing their fingers and hoping Barnes finds his confidence, Iguodala regains his health, the bench rediscovers its mojo and the traditional bigs provide any significant value isn't enough.
Those shouldn't be the strategies of a team with this type of transcendent force.
But Curry doesn't look like that type of player right now, and he's an obvious target on the defensive end. If injuries are still an issue, he's not using them as an excuse. Because excuses can't save Golden State's season from derailing; getting a five-star effort from Chef Curry might be the only thing that can.
1. Can Anyone Contain the King?
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James, a noted student of the game, is channeling the talents of NBA superstars past. His recent rampage has witnessed him scoring like Michael Jordan, creating like Magic Johnson, paint-protecting like Bill Russell and even long-range sniping like Larry Bird.
"He's doing things that are game-changing," Curry said, per ESPN.com's J.A. Adande.
As a 6'8", 250-pound freight train, James fits the physical profile of a basketball superhero. And yet, his statistics still carry an unbelievable air about them. He owns or shares the series lead in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. His last two times out produced staggering per-game marks of 41.0 points (on 56.1 percent shooting), 12.0 boards, 9.0 dimes, 3.5 steals and 3.0 blocks.
Those are unquestionably Finals MVP numbers, regardless of Sunday's outcome. But if the Dubs can't slow this roll, not even a "strength in numbers" advantage will save them. James has occasionally looked human during this series—21 points on 42.1 percent shooting in Games 1 and 2—and Golden State's challenge is to bring him back to mere mortal status.
That's much more strenuous than it sounds, particularly with Iguodala's potential limitations and Bogut's absence. But the Warriors' quest to validate their 73-win campaign runs through the King's throne.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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