Pump the Breaks on 3rd-Year WR Jeff Janis' Hype

We're in the organized team activities part of the NFL cycle. One month out of the draft, fans are thirsty for new information or action from their franchises, and they look at these OTAs to quench their dry mouths.

The structure of these practices would lead some to question the validity of any on-field news, though. They have helmets on but no pads. In the same way the NFL combine is viewed as "the underwear Olympics," these players are just moving in space. At least there are recorded measurables in Indianapolis, such as the 40-yard dash. Judging players off OTA practices would be like evaluating draft prospects based on the positional drills at the combine.

Still, writers have the responsibility to report what is happening at practices, and fans want to participate in hope trafficking. One of the more interesting narratives to come out of OTAs is that Jeff Janis, a third-year receiver in Green Bay, is going to be an impact player in the near future.

Coming out of Saginaw Valley State, The Packers took Janis in the seventh round of the 2014 draft. In his two years in the league, he has totaled just four receptions in the regular season. You'd think that correlates more with a wideout who would be fighting for a roster spot than one who is fighting for a starting job, but his circumstances are odd.

At the combine, Janis was a physical freak. He ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash and posted in the 92nd percentile or higher in the 10-yard split, the three-cone drill and the short shuttle, per Mock Draftable. On the site, his third-most similar comparison since 1998, at least athletically, is Kevin White, a 2015 first-round pick, followed by Anthony Gonzalez, a 2007 first-round pick, and Javon Walker, who was a Pro Bowler with the Packers in 2005.

His athletic ability, surpassing or matching first-round picks, and the Walker comparison were all some Green Bay fans needed to buy into the receiver.

It's hard to tell people something is a long shot when they've seen the success of an outlier. An example of this is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who drafted undersized pass-rushers over and over again, and mostly failed, after they witnessed the 6'0" James Harrison win five Pro Bowl honors.

That same mentality seems to be hanging up Packers fans. Any time someone tries to slow down the hype train around Janis, who caught two Hail Marys in a 145-yard playoff game against the Arizona Cardinals when we last saw him, the name Donald Driver comes up. Driver, an athletic seventh-round pick himself, is Green Bay's all-time receiving leader with 10,137 yards.

Driver earned three Pro Bowls in his career, but it wasn't until his third year that he truly broke out and started a run of seven 1,000-yard seasons in eight years. From a rational standpoint, you shouldn't expect every seventh-round pick to be Driver, but it's worth it to ask how much of an outlier he was when trying to come up with expectations for Janis.

This study began by looking at receivers from 2005 through 2014, Janis' class, which makes the data sample a full decade. There were 184 wideouts drafted in what is now considered Day 3 of the draft, Rounds 4 through 7, and only 16 of them, about 9 percent, played in more than 25 games in their respective careers and started more than 50 percent of their games.

Starts seem to be significant in the Janis debate, as Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazzette (h/t the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) believes odds are in Janis' favor to become the third receiver for the Packers this season: "But the bet here is if they push him, if they force-feed him and don't bench or ignore him after a mistake, he'll beat out Davante Adams for their No. 3 receiving job and add an element of speed their offense needs."

For reference, in 2014, the last time Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb were both healthy enough for a true third-receiver role to be judged by starts, a rookie Davante Adams had 11 starts in the 14 games in which he was in the third-receiver role. So simply setting the "50 percent career starter" bar might even be too low.

When comparing those 16 players' first two years in the league against Janis' stats, he's clearly the furthest behind of the bunch. His 14 targets, four receptions, 95 yards and zero touchdowns are miles behind 15 of the 16 wideouts.

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Rookie+soph. snapshot of 05-14 Day 3 WRs who played 25+ games and started 50% of games in their career, plus Janis. pic.twitter.com/Q9aYyYTL8P

— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) June 8, 2016"

The only player this decade who has seen success as a Day 3 receiver with similar stats is Steve Johnson. So there's the Janis comparison, right? Johnson must have been a freak athlete who put it all together in his third year like many hope Janis will, right?

That's wrong on multiple levels. First, Johnson did start a run of 1,000-yard seasons beginning with his third year in the NFL, but he only played in five games during his sophomore year in the league. According to Sports Injury Predictor, in two of the five games he did see the field, he left with rib and ankle injuries.

He wasn't an "athlete," either. Johnson ran just a 4.58-second 40-yard in 2008, far from Janis' 4.42-second mark. Johnson is also best known as a route-runner, one who could compete with cornerbacks such as Darrelle Revis and Richard Sherman in their respective primes. 

In just about every way, the one beacon of hope for unproductive Day 3 receivers in this decade is a receiver who is the complete opposite of Janis from a traits and narrative standpoint. Even in OTAs, when Packers head coach Mike McCarthy is being flooded with several Janis questions in a row, the on-field leader of the team is stressing Janis' fundamentals need work, despite the media's praise:

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McCarthy: Jeff Janis is doing a lot of good things. Just needs to continue to progress through the fundamentals of the WR position.

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) June 6, 2016"

All-Pro quarterback Aaron Rodgers has also used conditionals when discussing Janis' improvement this offseason, walking back from giving the unproven wideout too much credit, per Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette:

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#Packers QB Aaron Rodgers on Jeff Janis: "When he can stop thinking so much and react more, you see the athletic ability."

— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) June 6, 2016"

So the success rate for players of Janis' background don't correlate with long-term success in the league. But what about seventh-round picks in general? We know Driver made a decent career out of being a late selection, but how often does that happen?

Using the same sample, Day 3 receivers from 2005 to 2014, there have truly only been three successful seventh-round receivers drafted in that decade-long span.

"

Top-10 WRs in terms of Career AV drafted in the 7th round since 2005. The NFL gets the draft right, typically. pic.twitter.com/Ckuw0Ouwnj

— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) June 8, 2016"

In Career Approximate Value, a stat created by Pro-Football Reference to compare and contrast players, the fourth-best career of a seventh-round receiver is a four-way tie between Rishard Matthews, Ben Obomanu, Chansi Stuckey and Devin Aromashodu, who himself was once a preseason hero. Their individual careers have amounted to 10 points in Approximate Value.

Adams, Janis' top competition for the third-receiver role, posted five- and four-point Approximate Value seasons in his first two years in the league. If judged on the relative scale of seventh-round picks, Adams would already be the eighth-best in over a decade, and after this season, he's likely to take what is equivalent to the clear-cut fourth spot.

The writing on the wall isn't good for Janis. He's an exciting player when he does catch the ball, but that's due to the fact his only major positive is running in a straight line very fast. It shouldn't be surprising that the plays he's making are for big gains on Hail Mary-type throws.

There are three ways the 24-year-old Janis' career could go from this point:

1. He becomes an efficient route-runner out of the blue despite the fact he's been working with the same staff for two full years. Based on his production at his age, it's a long shot to say the Day 3 receiver will develop, as 15 of 16 successful Day 3 receivers in over the past decade already flashed consistent potential two years into the league.
2. He's just a deep-play threat and the Packers have to accept they're going to field a third receiver, starting on the outside opposite Nelson with Cobb in the slot, who simply runs go routes and post routes. Based on the efficiency of McCarthy's scheme, with Rodgers as a passer, it's doubtful the team would want to embrace that reality.
3. Janis continues to be who he is: a desperation receiver who also features on special teams as a gunner and returner because of his speed.

All of those options are on the table, but if nothing else, the idea that the bet is to sell yourself on Janis is misguided.