Despite Recent Hype, Siemian Is Long Shot to Win Broncos' QB Job for a Reason

The Denver Broncos are coming off a Super Bowl victory, but their starting quarterback in 2015, Peyton Manning, has ridden off into retirement.

For the first time since 1998, when current Broncos general manager John Elway capped off his career with a Lombardi Trophy, an incumbent Super Bowl champion is faced with the task of replacing its starting quarterback without even the potential of re-signing the passer.

According to the Denver Post's Troy E. Renck, when the topic of the quarterback battle was brought up after an organized team activity, Denver head coach Gary Kubiak told the media, "I wouldn’t sleep on Trevor [Siemian] to win the job, either."

As far as late spring goes, that's as close to a bombshell as the NFL world is going to put out.

Why? Siemian was the 250th overall pick in 2015. Based on the team's actions in the quarterback market this offseason, with Siemian already in their pocket for three more seasons, it's doubtful that the Broncos value him much.

First, they made an offer to Brock Osweiler, who started seven games for Denver in 2015. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the free-agency bidding war came down to the Broncos and the Houston Texans, who eventually signed the passer to a $72 million, four-year contract.

The train of thought that Denver thinks highly of Siemian is swiftly derailed by the fact that the team was at least in the ballpark of those massive numbers in the Osweiler sweepstakes.

Not only did the team target Osweiler, but it made a trade for Mark Sanchez, whom the Broncos are paying a $4.5 million base salary after acquiring the passer for a conditional 2017 seventh-round pick. While that may not seem like much, Sanchez's base salary ranks sixth on the team, only behind Demaryius Thomas, Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, Emmanuel Sanders and Von Miller's projected franchise tag signing, per Spotrac.

With Siemian on the roster, Sanchez was traded for on March 11. That date didn't end the Colin Kaepernick trade rumors for the Broncos, though—a narrative that was played out all throughout the predraft process.

Even during the week of the draft, the idea of Denver targeting another passer was in the air, as Siemian wasn't viewed by any major writer, analyst or pundit as someone worthy of even competing with Sanchez, who likely would have been the fourth quarterback on the Eagles' depth chart had he not been traded.

Bob Holtzman of ESPN (via ESPN's Adam Schefter) even reported that San Francisco 49ers general manager Trent Baalke at least left the door open for the possibility of Kaepernick being shipped out of town during the draft weekend.

"

49ers' GM Trent Baalke told @BobHoltzmanESPN that it's possible Colin Kaepernick could be traded this week.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 27, 2016"

For whatever reason, the deal fell through, despite the fact that both sides had entertained the idea enough that there were months of speculation on the topic.

Still, it was hard to find someone outside of those with rose-colored glasses in Colorado who thought that the team was poised for another title run with the Sanchez-Siemian combo. Finding a mock draft in late April that had the Broncos drafting a quarterback with the 31st overall pick was not difficult.

When it was all said and done, the Broncos traded up to the 26th overall pick, jumping their AFC West rival Kansas City Chiefs to select Paxton Lynch of Memphis, the third quarterback off the board in the 2016 draft.

California's Jared Goff and North Dakota State's Carson Wentz were drafted first and second overall, respectively.

Based on the history of first-round quarterbacks, Lynch is going to start for Denver during his rookie contract. You have to go back to 1997 to find a first-round passer who didn't get a significant chance to compete as a starting quarterback. Jim Druckenmiller, drafted 26th overall by the 49ers, only threw for 239 yards in his NFL career.

Other than him, no first-round quarterback in the last two decades ever had to face the question of if he was going to get an opportunity. It was simply a matter of when he would get his first crack at a starting job.

That's why, when Kubiak had Sanchez, Lynch and Siemian all splitting first-team reps on March 31, according to James Palmer of NFL Network, the general feeling in the football media landscape was confusion.

"

Going right down the middle is Gary Kubiak’s game plan. All 3 Broncos QBs were given 1st team reps. No one listed as 1st,2nd,3rd string

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) May 31, 2016 "

Historically, a projected third-string Day 3 selection surpassing a first-round passer is unprecedented, but after Kubiak made his comments, we at least have to do our due diligence on the quarterback.

While Tom Brady comes to mind, he was drafted about two rounds ahead of where Siemian was selected, and no passer has pulled a "Brady" since then.

Looking at Siemian's college career, to call him special would be a wild over-exaggeration. He started for portions of three seasons at Northwestern, and his last year with the Wildcats featured a significant knee injury.

In his last two years at Northwestern, he had a record of 4-10 in the Big Ten when he threw for double-digit passes in a game. Three of those four wins came against squads with a combined record of 4-20, although the team did somehow manage to beat Wisconsin in 2014, which would finish 7-1 in its conference.

He threw just 27 touchdowns in four years and also netted 24 interceptions. He finished his college career with a 58.9 percent completion rate but never cracked the 60 percent mark in a full season as either a sophomore, junior or senior.

On paper, his athleticism was never measured, either at the combine or Northwestern's pro day, but NFL Draft Scout did list the passer at 6'3" and 220 pounds—fairly standard for a quarterback in 2016.

His projected 40-yard dash time on the site of 4.94 seconds is also par for the course.

If it wasn't college polish or height-weight-speed potential that could have possibly led Kubiak to open up the quarterback competition to include Siemian—if we're inclined to believe him—then the passer must have flashed in the 2015 preseason, right?

After going back and rewatching every throw he's made in his NFL career to date, he didn't stand out there, either. 

"

Bennie Fowler ('15 UDFA-MI St) is pretty clearly Siemian's go-to guy. Their TD vs Arizona in Week 4 of the preszn. pic.twitter.com/Yt9S8u6Eui

— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) June 1, 2016"

He had some flashes on deep balls, particularly to Bennie Fowler, but the passer's arm and skittish pocket movement weren't what you'd ask aesthetically of a quarterback. His overall inconsistency, even in the shorter areas of the field, was displeasing at times.

"

On clean deep attempts, Siemian was 1/4 during last preseason. pic.twitter.com/iB5JUsuUE5

— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) June 1, 2016"

Overall, Siemian was on target for 16 of his 17 passing attempts under seven yards, but his on-target percentage dropped to 58.33 percent between eight and 15 yards. Oddly, he was a perfect 6-of-6 between 16 and 24 yards past the line of scrimmage, typically labeled as the intermediate range.

While his 42.86 percent on-target rate for deep balls seems to fit the narrative of a slow decrease in accuracy the further a target is away from a quarterback, it should be noted that two of the three on-target passes that Siemian threw over 25 yards resulted in defensive pass interference calls.

As far as clean passes go, he was only 1-of-4 when heaving deep.

Based on the Broncos' actions this offseason, the history of players valued monetarily or with draft picks similar to Sanchez, and Lynch and Siemian's preseason effort, you should be absolutely floored if he wins the starting job in Denver.

While Kubiak may be talking about and putting Siemian in positions where he looks like he can come away with the top job, it's likely a motivational ploy to get the most out of the team's first-round investment.

Unless something happens, like the veteran Sanchez falling to injury and the squad not wanting to throw Lynch into the line of fire in his first year, expect Siemian to throw as many regular-season passes in 2016 as he did as a rookie: zero.