Lakers Trade Rumors: Rounding Up Top Buzz Entering 2016 NBA Draft Lottery

The 2016 NBA draft lottery is all set for Tuesday night. Representatives from 14 teams will be on hand as they watch league commissioner Adam Silver and a few pingpong balls determine the draft order.

Instead of a current player or former franchise great, the Los Angeles Lakers will have general manager Mitch Kupchak on stage waiting to see what fate befalls the Purple and Gold. It's perhaps telling that Kupchak will be right in the thick of things, because if the trade rumors from the past couple of weeks are any indication, he could be a busy man once the draft order is set. 

After finishing with the league's second-worst record in the 2015-16 season—they went 17-65 to be exact, with the Philadelphia 76ers taking top (dis)honors with a 10-72 mark—the Lakers have some of the best odds for securing a top pick. 

Pick	% Chance
1	19.9
2	18.8
3	17.1

Those are some good odds, but it still leaves the Lakers with a 44.2 percent chance of falling outside the top three, which would unfortunately send their pick to the 76ers as a haunting vestige of the Steve Nash trade.

Of course, if the Lakers end up with a top-three pick, they may end up relinquishing it by choice. ESPN Insider's Chad Ford wrote on Sunday the Lakers could be in for a trade if they don't get in the top two: 
"Multiple sources said at the combine this week that they expect the pick to be in play if it's No. 3—with the Lakers looking for a young veteran in return."

This suggests that the Lakers would be happy to snag either LSU's Ben Simmons or Duke's Brandon Ingram, who are the best talents available and go 1-2 in seemingly every mock draft, but perhaps can't see themselves getting the right player at No. 3.

Ford thinks the Lakers should draft forward/center Dragan Bender if they keep the third pick, although he does note the Croatian 7-footer "is intriguing but a project." 

The Lakers may not be interested in a long-term project with a promising young core of Julius Randle, D'Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson in place. The presence of the latter two essentially precludes the Lakers from taking a point guard (and perhaps even an undersized 2-guard like Buddy Hield) in this draft, as it would create a logjam in the backcourt.

Trading for a veteran would make quite a bit of sense if the Lakers can't fill the wing spot vacated by Kobe Bryant with either Simmons or Ingram. 

On May 4, The Ringer's Bill Simmons suggested Los Angeles could have their sights set on Indiana Pacers star Paul George: 

George led the Pacers to a 45-37 record and a playoff berth this season, averaging 23.1 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game along the way. The 26-year-old looks fully recovered from a horrific leg injury suffered in summer 2014 and is entering his prime. He could certainly slot in at small forward and give the Lakers much-needed length and tenacity on defense.

The Lakers also can attract potential trade targets (and free agents) with newly christened head coach Luke Walton. George, for example, might like the idea of playing for Walton and whatever ideas he imports from his time at Golden State over the plodding pace he is likely to see under new Pacers head coach Nate McMillan.

The Pacers are a playoff team and would be loath to give up their best player in George. Any package involving the Lakers' potential No. 3 pick might need to be supplemented by future draft considerations and/or one of Randle, Russell or Clarkson. 

Of course, the Lakers might be willing to part with the No. 1 or No. 2 pick if it gives them the opportunity to land a superstar even greater than the likes of George. Fox Sports' Radio's Colin Cowherd said it was a possibility on May 3: 

A certain subset of Lakers fans might be upset at the thought of missing out on years of watching Simmons and Ingram fly around the court, but if an attractive trade package highlighted by a top-two pick nets them a superstar, then they'll likely come around.

Kupchak has suggested he'll be willing to listen to overtures for his players. telling the Los Angeles Daily News' Mark Medina that "nobody's off limits."

“You have to take phone calls. If that does happen, that’s a good thing,” Kupchak said, per Medina. “That means you have players that other teams want."

ESPN Insider's Kevin Pelton did an interesting cost-benefit analysis of the Lakers trading a top pick, factoring in rookie pay scales, the salary cap and the contracts of certain trade-worthy veterans. Pelton suggests the Lakers should keep the pick, unless a player of the George-DeMarcus Cousins-Jimmy Butler caliber becomes available:

"

If they keep their pick, the Lakers would be foolish to rule out trading it for the right player. There's too much value to be had in potentially adding a star in his prime whose salary is small enough that the Lakers could still add top free agents who would be interested in playing with him.

The danger comes if the Lakers expand that list of targets too far to players who don't provide the same kind of value above their salary as a top-three pick will during his rookie contract, particularly if that move is made in the hopes of trying to win as many games as possible now at the expense of building a contender a few years down the road.

"

Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty Images

In truth, trading the top pick will probably come down to the Lakers' commitment toward an old-fashioned rebuild. The Lakers have room in the salary cap to land a couple of strong free agents this offseason and get the process going, perhaps setting them up to snag a true prize like Russell Westbrook in 2017.

Russell disappointed at times both on and off the court in his rookie season, but he flashed great playmaking potential. Randle is already a double-double machine and should get even better.

Letting them develop alongside another young star from the 2016 NBA draft would be exciting but perhaps too slow for a rabid fanbase unaccustomed to anything other than championship contention.

All of this trade buzz and speculation is of course rendered moot if the Lakers have to give up their pick to the 76ers. Tuesday will certainly be a nerve-wracking night for Lakers fans, but it could also be the beginning of a transformative offseason, whether or not a trade is made.