Spanish Grand Prix 2016: 5 Bold Predictions for Barcelona Race
The fifth round of the 2016 Formula One season will take place at this weekend's Spanish Grand Prix at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, where Max Verstappen will make his Red Bull debut.
Having established himself as a potential world champion since making his F1 debut at the beginning of 2015, the teenager has been offered an opportunity to show what he can do on a title-winning team after Red Bull ran out of patience with Daniil Kvyat.
Following a disastrous performance in his home race, Kvyat has been sent back to Toro Rosso, where he will partner with Carlos Sainz Jr., a driver determined to prove he, like former team-mate Verstappen, is worthy of a place at Red Bull.
With a look at how Verstappen and Kvyat will fare for their new teams, more reliability problems for Mercedes, a landmark result for McLaren-Honda at Fernando Alonso's home race and a return to form for Romain Grosjean and Haas, here are five bold predictions for the Spanish GP.
Max Verstappen Will Endure a Tough Start to Life at Red Bull
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Little more than a year after arriving on the grid as a 17-year-old, the wonderkid has joined the big-boy team.
Shortly after his promotion from Toro Rosso to Red Bull was confirmed, Max Verstappen told his official website how he was excited about "an amazing opportunity," one that could see him become the youngest-ever podium finisher and race winner before the end of 2016.
And who knows? Might he become the youngest world champion in the sport's history as soon as next season, when the major regulation changes are likely to offer Red Bull a route back to the front of the grid?
Verstappen has indeed been offered an amazing opportunity, but with that opportunity—as Daniil Kvyat soon discovered—comes a great deal of pressure.
From now, there will be no excuses and, as former Red Bull driver Mark Webber told the Telegraph's Daniel Johnson, "nowhere to hide."
On the evidence of his performances since the beginning of 2015, Verstappen is likely to slot into the Red Bull environment more effectively than Kvyat ever did, yet the Spanish Grand Prix may come too soon for him to make an instant impression.
Even in this era of intense simulator work, the challenge of suddenly switching to a new car—even one as drivable as the RB12—should not be underestimated.
Red Bull could quite easily secure a second podium finish of 2016 in Spain. But Verstappen, who told Dutch television station Ziggo Sport (h/t Motorsport.com) that he is suffering from sleepless nights, will not make the third segment of qualifying and produce a muted drive to the fringes of the top 10.
Daniil Kvyat Will Be Annihilated by Carlos Sainz Jr. and Cause Another Crash
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The Red Bull hierarchy may have lost faith in Daniil Kvyat, but Toro Rosso team principal Franz Tost is still a believer.
In the aftermath of last year's Spanish Grand Prix, the scene of one of the Russian's worst races as a Red Bull driver, Tost expressed his sympathy for Kvyat, telling the official F1 website how he was promoted to the senior team two years too early and insisting he had "the champion gene."
Having watched Verstappen also ascend to Red Bull much earlier than he would have preferred, it is now Tost's job to dig beneath the scars and rediscover that strand of DNA, providing Kvyat with the confidence he needs to rebuild his career.
The challenge facing Kvyat, of course, is to embrace that atmosphere and refrain from considering himself too good for a team of Toro Rosso's stature following his brief taste of life at Red Bull.
But even if he does, you suspect the shock of his demotion and the shame of becoming the first driver to be sent back to Toro Rosso will be too raw for him to perform anywhere near his best this weekend.
As with Verstappen, Kvyat will face the challenge of adapting to alien machinery at a circuit where new team-mate Carlos Sainz Jr.—who he previously partnered with in Formula BMW, Formula Renault and GP3—excelled last year, dragging Toro Rosso as high as fifth on the grid.
Should Sainz produce a similar performance this time, Kvyat could be humiliated in qualifying, leaving him under even more pressure ahead of the grand prix.
And following his first-lap meltdown at the Sochi Autodrom, we all know what happens when Kvyat enters a race feeling the strain.
Nico Rosberg Will Suffer His 1st Retirement of 2016 After Setting Pole Position
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Two wins.
That's how close Nico Rosberg is to equalling Sebastian Vettel's record of nine consecutive victories, and the championship leader couldn't wish for a better sequence of races to help him do it as Formula One returns to Europe.
Although he was pipped to the finish line by Lewis Hamilton in Spain two seasons ago, Rosberg was the faster of the two Mercedes drivers in the 2014 event before claiming a comfortable pole-to-flag win last year.
After the Spanish Grand Prix, of course, comes Monaco—the place where he became the first driver since Ayrton Senna to win three times in succession in 2015.
It is almost as though the script has already been written for Rosberg to equal the record on the very streets where he grew tall. Yet with the German already 43 points ahead of Hamilton in the drivers' standings, his start to 2016 feels a little too good to be true.
To his credit, Rosberg has openly admitted his victories in the opening four races have partly been achieved through good fortune due to Hamilton's recent technical problems.
But for all the cries of foul play at Mercedes, it has been forgotten Rosberg has suffered issues of his own in the opening weeks of the season.
Per Sky Sports' Matthew Morlidge, Toto Wolff revealed Mercedes considered retiring the No. 6 car in Australia, with Rosberg suffering an engine glitch in practice in China and an MGU-K concern at the halfway stage in Russia, per the team's official website.
The difference between the pair, it seems, is that while Rosberg's problems have been manageable, Hamilton's have often been terminal and occurred at crucial times of a grand prix weekend.
We expect his luck will run out in Spain, where a confident Rosberg will ease to a third straight pole before that MGU-K issue resurfaces in the race, costing him the chance of creating a little piece of history and handing Hamilton a first victory of 2016.
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McLaren-Honda Will Finally Reach Q3 at Fernando Alonso's Home Race
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Almost three years to the day since Honda's return to Formula One with McLaren was formally announced, will this be the weekend the grand alliance finally progresses to the third segment of qualifying?
After 18 months of constant misery defined by energy-deployment issues, smoky blowouts and blue flags, McLaren have shown signs of promise in recent weeks.
Once left numb by the inevitability of failure, Fernando Alonso was clearly distraught when he was denied a place in Q3 in China, a circuit where—with the longest straight on the F1 calendar—McLaren were rooted to the penultimate row of the grid in 2015.
And while their double-points finish in Russia was partly achieved as a result of the misfortune of others, both Alonso and Jenson Button again came desperately close to a top-10 start at another venue that shouldn't have suited their machinery.
As the first European event of the season, most teams will bring a range of aerodynamic upgrades to the Spanish Grand Prix, with McLaren set to introduce "a new floor, wings and bodywork" as their "aggressive development push" continues, as reported by Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble.
Those updates at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya—widely regarded as a true test of a racing car's abilities—should only enhance a chassis that Alonso believes is already "up there with the top teams," per Crash.net's Rob Wilkins.
If the MP4-31 is half as good as they like to think it is, Alonso and Button will both reach Q3 in Spain.
Romain Grosjean Will Get Haas Back on Track with a Top-6 Finish
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Three months after their VF-16 car was launched in the Barcelona pit lane on the opening morning of winter testing, the Spanish Grand Prix will allow Haas to reflect on how far they've come in a short period of time.
Formula One's latest new team made a stunning start to the season as Romain Grosjean followed up a sixth-place finish with fifth in Bahrain, but the American outfit have been unable to hit those heights since.
A miserable weekend in China ended with Grosjean pleading with the pit wall to retire his car, and the team were again uncompetitive in Russia, where the Frenchman's rather fortunate return to the minor points positions at least allowed Haas to retain some momentum.
Following that "very difficult weekend" at the Sochi Autodrom, Grosjean promised the team's official website the Spanish GP would be "so much better" for them, and it will be fascinating to observe how Haas perform at the one track on the 2016 calendar where they have previous experience.
After a new front wing was raced for the first time in Russia, the team's official website has confirmed Haas will introduce a revised rear wing and use Ferrari's upgraded power unit for the first time in Spain, where Grosjean has a respectable record.
We reckon those changes will allow Haas to rediscover the performance level that led to Grosjean referring to the VF-16 as "one of the best cars" he had "ever driven," per ESPN F1's Nate Saunders, and establish the foundations for another strong result.
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