Next Coaching Choice Will Make or Break Phil Jackson's Knicks Tenure

As the New York Knicks limp toward the 2016 offseason, Phil Jackson finds himself with the unenviable, albeit self-created, task of hiring a new head coach who can steady a sinking ship and, by extension, rescue his Big Apple tenure from imminent ruin. 

This is not, by any stretch, a juncture that Jackson was supposed to encounter when he became president of the Knicks in March 2014. Even now, there are those who will deny that any one decision, including the next coaching hire, can realistically define Jackson's time at the helm.

The Knicks, after all, hired the Zen Master to reinvent the franchise culture. Under him, it went, New York wouldn't let any single offseason, lone free agent or sole player dictate the future. Those days were over. For a team that has advanced past the first round of the playoffs just once since 2001, they needed to be over.

Jackson offered an air of calm as a front office figurehead, mostly because of his success as a head coach—all 11 rings' worth. The Knicks would invest more in patience, in process, rather than poorly planned pipe dreams that banked on New York's ebbing market mystique attracting free agents in the middle or back end of their primes.

But Jackson has squandered that pre-existing goodwill, as well as any trust he earned after the fact. He fired head coach Derek Fisher, his own disciple, less than two seasons into a five-year deal. He replaced him with Kurt Rambis, another Jackson disciple, who has won fewer than 30 percent of the games he's ever coached.

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There is talk that Jackson isn't opposed to eventually naming Rambis the permanent successor to Fisher, according to the New York Daily News' Frank Isola. Jackson is serious enough about the idea that he might consider coaching the Knicks' home games next season as a way of justifying the hire, per ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne and Ian Begley.

Such a scenario is beyond unlikely. Jackson is 70 years old, has nothing to gain by taking over a non-playoff squad and, as of now, wouldn't have the support of his star player.

"No. No. No. I don't think that should be accepted," Carmelo Anthony said of this rumor, per Begley. "I wouldn't accept that if that was the case. Phil is cool, man. He don't need to be on the sidelines no more. He put so many years into this game. He's cool. He don't need to be on the sideline."

The days of New York pandering to Anthony's will should be long gone. He turns 32 in May, and his prime will never intersect with 20-year-old rookie Kristaps Porzingis' heyday. But, as he told Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears, Anthony recently met with Jackson, so his comments could be a reflection of the Zen Master's own stance.

Either way, Jackson's greatest failure as president of the Knicks is being accentuated by the coaching situation and his inevitable search. He has taken a stick of dynamite to the very sense of stability his arrival was thought to portend—the very foundation of consistency he laid last summer by drafting Porzingis and acquiring Jerian Grant in a draft-day trade.

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Adding Porzingis, a finesse big, and Grant, a drive-heavy point guard, should have been evidence of Jackson's commitment to flexibility. Neither is ready-made for his vaunted triangle offense.

Many of the free agents the Knicks chased weren't, either. They didn't place an emphasis on shooters and drivers, but they met with DeAndre Jordan, an anti-triangle big if there ever was one. They signed Robin Lopez, a shot-changer, rebounder and pick-and-roll slasher, not a high-usage post-up scorer or passer.

That perceived open-mindedness is now under fire.

New York's offense is slow, light on pick-and-rolls and incomparably heavy on mid-range jumpers. And, to that end, Jackson canned Fisher at a time when he was trying to mold the Knicks' attack into something different, as Bryan Gibberman explained for KnickerBlogger.net:

"

Thinking back on it, in Fisher’s last games it was almost like he was trying to prove a point. In first halves he Knicks would run mainly triangle based offensive sets leading to them falling behind. In second halves they’d run a ton of spread PnR storming back into the game.

This pattern happened quite frequently.

Was it Fisher trying to prove a point to Jackson?

"

Jackson has been given every opportunity to dispel the notion that he's not so married to his own basketball philosophies that he would rather lose with them than win without them. He has thus far failed to adequately make that clarification, opting instead to speak in uncrackable codes and general obscurities.

On the subject of firing Fisher, finding another coach and stepping outside his triangular box, Jackson tweeted:

Experts at reading between the lines cannot even draw tangible conclusions from such Zen-speak. And so, two years into Jackson's tenure, his objective remains uncertain.

This next coaching hire is a chance for him to make a clear, constructive statement—his last chance.

Another mulligan will not be granted should Jackson swing and miss on this decision. He and the Knicks, per Shelburne and Begley, have a "mutual out clause" after next season. He'll be more than halfway through his five-year deal by that point anyway, and reversing course once more won't be a reasonable option if his aim is to turn around the team before his contract expires.

Free agency is not something Jackson can totally control. He can make his pitch, but the decisions of big-time names such as Nicolas Batum, Mike Conley and Kevin Durant are out of his hands. He likewise cannot be held responsible for the Knicks' draft-pick situation. Their first-rounder, which the Denver Nuggets can swap out for their own, will be conveyed to the Toronto Raptors, the result of an Andrea Bargnani trade that predates Jackson.

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Parting ways with Anthony is not even totally within his jurisdiction anymore. He gave up that right when he handed New York's lone superstar a no-trade clause in his most recent contract. Anthony has veto power over any deal, limiting where, if anywhere, Jackson can send him and what the Knicks might receive in return.

Hiring a coach is something Jackson can control. He can't force Golden State Warriors assistant Luke Walton to leave the comfy confines of Oakland, but he most certainly can expand his search to include those outside his inner circle—which, in reality, shouldn't be a problem, since there isn't a tried-and-true solution to pluck from Jackson's coaching cactus.  

Fisher clearly wasn't the answer, and Rambis isn't a viable option, either. The Knicks have fared no better under him than his predecessor:

Knicks...	Off. Rtg. (Rank)	Def. Rtg. (Rank)	Net Rating (Rank)
With Fisher	102.0 (21)	104.5 (20)	-2.5 (20)
With Rambis	104.0 (19)	107.5 (19)	-3.5 (23)

Brian Shaw and Walton needn't top the list just because they're familiar with Jackson. Walton is an intriguing option because he's been exposed to an environment with Golden State that incorporates elements of the triangle without tethering the entire offense to it. But Jackson would show more adaptability by journeying further outside his wheelhouse.

Consider what he said last March, per Newsday's Al Iannazzone: "Establishing how you want to play basketball is important. There are only a few teams that you can see in this league that say, 'OK, this is our definitive way we play.' We want to be one of those teams."

The Knicks do not have that identity right now. They hover around the bottom 10 of offensive and defensive efficiency and rank in the bottom three of pace. They have a 20-year-old unicorn in Porzingis and must account for an aging superstar in Anthony. They sport one of the 10 best three-point defenses but are minus-42 from beyond the arc on the season.

There is no concrete direction being laid.

If Jackson is serious about turning the Knicks into a sustainable power, does he give chase to defensive masterminds Tom Thibodeau or Jeff Van Gundy, even if it's a futile pursuit? Shouldn't he at least make a play for Ime Udoka, Ettore Messina or Becky Hammon, the crowning jewels of the San Antonio Spurs' assistant coaching staff?

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Whatever Jackson decides, the road ahead will be a long slog for these Knicks. It doesn't matter what happens with Anthony or if they clean up in free agency. They are still rebuilding, and that takes time.

Casting a wide net in his coaching search is the only way Jackson can come close to preserving the integrity of his New York reign. This next hire, for all intents and purposes, needs to give the Knicks their identity—the direction and stability that Jackson promised to sculpt but has yet to deliver. 

Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and accurate leading into games on March 17. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.