Super Bowl Odds 2016: Panthers vs. Broncos Box Score Game Predictions
The seemingly endless wait for Super Bowl 50 is nearly over. On Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET, the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos will kick off the biggest football game of the year.
Who will win? The 17-1 Panthers are the favorites, according to oddsmakers, but the 14-4 Broncos have the NFL's best defense and a living legend at quarterback. Don't count them out.
Let's comb through some odds for the contest, predict a quarter-by-quarter scoring breakdown for the game and then forecast what the stats might look like for the key players and units for each team.
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Super Bowl Odds
| Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos | Carolina (-7) | Carolina -210; Denver +175 | 45 |
Quarter-by-Quarter Score Prediction
| Broncos | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| Panthers | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 27 |
Let's make one thing clear before proceeding: Carolina has a considerably better roster, is slightly healthier and has only lost one game all season. The Panthers handily beat two extremely formidable opponents (although the Seattle Seahawks game ended close) heading into the Super Bowl, while Denver eked by weaker competition.
With that said, Denver's top-ranked defense won't make this contest a cakewalk for Cam Newton's squad. The scary Broncos pass rush will force the Panthers quarterback into some rushed throws and a few sacks, as well.
In the first quarter, I expect an opening-drive touchdown for Carolina. It won't be a quick possession, with a few third-down conversions needed to finally find the end zone via Jonathan Stewart's legs. Denver won't score on its first possession, but it'll pin the Panthers deep in their own territory, then force a three-and-out and use a few medium-distance Peyton Manning throws to get in Brandon McManus' field-goal range.
The Panthers will start to assert their dominance in the second frame. They'll jump a Manning pass and then put seven points on the board on the ensuing possession. Another stalled Broncos drive, this time out of field-goal range, will give the ball back to Carolina for a methodical field-goal drive to end of the half.
After the intermission, things will mostly stay the same. A few classic Manning on-the-money dimes and short-yardage conversions by C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman will get Denver close to paydirt, but again force a field-goal.
Newton's running ability will start to matter here, as it will demoralize an otherwise effective pass rush. A beautiful pass on the run from Newton to Ted Ginn Jr. followed by a short toss to Greg Olsen in the back of the end zone will put Carolina up 20-6 heading into the final quarter.
Once there, a Manning short toss and maneuvering run by Emmanuel Sanders will start to put the game's outcome in doubt. But, like he's done all season, Newton will shut the door on the comeback attempt with an 11-yard touchdown rumble. One of Manning's deep passes will get picked off with a few minutes remaining, sealing a 27-13 Carolina victory.
Key Box Score Numbers
| Cam Newton (CAR) | 18-of-30 passing, 237 passing yards, one passing touchdowns, 58 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown |
| Peyton Manning (DEN) | 24-of-40 passing, 216 passing yards, one passing touchdown, two interceptions, minus-two rushing yards |
| Jonathan Stewart (CAR) | 19 rushes, 71 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 12 receiving yards |
| C.J. Anderson (DEN) | 13 rushes, 38 rushing yards, 27 receiving yards |
| Greg Olsen (CAR) | Nine catches, 97 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown |
| Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) | Six catches, 69 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown |
| Defense (CAR) | Two sacks, two interceptions, one forced fumble |
| Defense (DEN) | Three sacks, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery |
Newton's numbers will be solid, but nothing amazing. Denver is going to give him a bunch of different looks in the pass rush and get to him a few times, with the Broncos smothering his ho-hum receiving corps. His trademark improvisation on the run will be a huge advantage.
Manning will stay with short passes most of the game with solid protection, then force some deep balls in the fourth quarter. Obviously, he's not going to be rattling off any chunks of yardage on the run.
Stewart is going to be satisfactory, but not spectacular. He'll avoid fumbles as well as excessive drops and negative-yardage plays, which is exactly what Carolina needs him to do.
Anderson, along with Hillman, will have very few big runs against a super stingy Carolina run defense and a stacked box. They could be targeted a significant number of times in the passing game, though, especially with Manning's penchant for shorter throws.
Olsen is easily Newton's most reliable target at the tight end slot, so he'll continue to be key. The Broncos' cornerbacks are very tough, so you shouldn't expect big numbers from the wideouts.
Demaryius Thomas is probably going to get the Josh Norman treatment most of the game. He'll get a few big catches late in the game, but Manning will look to Sanders and his halfbacks more often.
Denver's pass rush will get a sack-strip on Newton and two other quarterback stops for a loss, but the defense won't have a ton of luck against the best offense in the league overall. The Broncos will fall victim to the unfavorable field position granted to them by their offensive struggles. Banged-up safeties T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart could play a part in allowing Newton to thrive in the middle of the field.
The Panthers have Luke Kuechly, an absolute stud at linebacker who very well could win MVP honors this game. It wasn't a surprise at all when Pro Football Focus divulged the following information.
Kuechly and his henchmen will be all over Manning's passes Sunday evening, as well as the rushing efforts of Anderson and Hillman.
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