How Much Longer Can LA Clippers Survive Without Blake Griffin?

Just when Blake Griffin was closing in on a return from the injury to his left quadriceps, nearly ready to give the Los Angeles Clippers a puncher's chance in the top-heavy Western Conference, more news broke. As ESPN.com's Michael Eaves reported, an altercation with a staff member led to a hand injury that will keep Griffin out for a while longer:

"

#Clippers forward Blake Griffin injured his right hand after hitting a member of the team's equipment staff during an argument in Toronto

— Michael Eaves (@michaeleaves) January 26, 2016"

Sources told Sam Amick of USA Today the staffer is equipment manager Matias Testi.

ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Ramona Shelburne initially reported Griffin has a fracture in his right hand, which the team confirmed, per Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears. The Clippers put the timetable for a return at four to six weeks, and any discipline from them or the league would only add to the recovery period.

The NBA is investigating the incident, per Shelburne.

Now, Chris Paul will have to carry the weight of the organization for a while longer, and the Josh Smith trade—surely made under the impression Griffin would soon return—leaves it without a notable power forward. The Clips will lean on Paul Pierce, Wesley Johnson and the recently signed Jeff Ayres for the foreseeable future.

The Clippers Can Survive

Thus far, the stopgap solutions have worked.  

L.A. has been 2.5 points per 100 possessions better with Griffin on the floor in 2015-16, but his absence still hasn't led to many losses. 

After the power forward played his last pre-injury game, a 94-84 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on Christmas Day, his Clippers stood at 17-13. But during the 14 games he's missed, they've stormed out to an 11-3 record, boosting themselves up to No. 4 in the Western Conference hierarchy. 

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Catching the Golden State Warriors or San Antonio Spurs will prove nearly impossible, but they're only four games back of the Oklahoma City Thunder. They still have a chance to rise up to No. 3 and gain a shot at avoiding the Dubs until the Western Conference Finals. Even if they fall short, they're close enough to convince themselves they're in the same class as those superpowers. 

But in spite of the standings, this recent success isn't sustainable. An 11-3 record is massively misleading, and that will soon be revealed as the cupcake-laden schedule is traded for a much harder stretch. 

Of the victories without Griffin, just two came against opponents who would make the playoffs if the season ended today. One was a 14-point win over the Miami Heat, who have been notoriously inconsistent. The other came at the expense of a Houston Rockets team opponents have outscored by 0.8 points per 100 possessions this year. 

During that 14-game stretch, the Clippers played only two squads that deserve to be called even fringe contenders—the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers. They lost the pair of outings by a combined 31 points.

Even before those defeats, CBS Sports' Matt Moore was left relatively unimpressed:

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OK, so the Clippers are on this big win streak and J.J. Redick is a volcano of awesomeness and they're starting to get more even, if not great, team contributions. And yet, I still just can't get excited for them. I don't have any way to get myself to a place where I can consider them as a serious contender, and I feel like with who they have, and where they're at, that's a big deal.

"

Let's assume Griffin is held out for just under a month, beating the initial timetable to return for a Feb. 22 contest against the Phoenix Suns. Now, prepare yourself for the gauntlet that is the Clippers' schedule up until that point: 

Date	Opponent	Opponent's Current Record
Jan. 26	@ Indiana Pacers	23-21
Jan. 27	@ Atlanta Hawks	27-19
Jan. 29	Los Angeles Lakers	9-37
Jan. 31	Chicago Bulls	25-19
Feb. 3	Minnesota Timberwolves	14-32
Feb. 5	@ Orlando Magic	20-23
Feb. 7	@ Miami Heat	24-21
Feb. 8	@ Philadelphia 76ers	6-39
Feb. 10	@ Boston Celtics	25-21
Feb. 18	San Antonio Spurs	38-7
Feb. 20	Golden State Warriors	41-4

The combined winning percentage of that group is .509 and only falls to .505 if he's out the full six weeks, escapes disciplinary action and returns against the New York Knicks on March 11. But compare that to the winning percentage of the previous 14 opponents, which stood at a meager .468 and featured a few teams that aren't as strong as their records might indicate. 

Danny Moloshok/Associated Press

Either way, the Clippers have to be thankful for the bit of cushion they possess in the Western standings:

Team	Record	Games Back
1. Golden State Warriors	41-4	—
2. San Antonio Spurs	38-7	3.0
3. Oklahoma City Thunder	33-13	8.5
4. Los Angeles Clippers	28-16	12.5
5. Memphis Grizzlies	26-20	15.5
6. Dallas Mavericks	25-21	16.5
7. Houston Rockets	25-22	17.0
8. Sacramento Kings	20-24	20.5
9. Portland Trail Blazers	20-26	21.5
10. Utah Jazz	19-25	21.5

L.A. can wade through an extended absence just fine. It'll probably do more than that, given the level the team has been playing at against a weak schedule and the continued excellence of both Paul and DeAndre Jordan. My FATS model (based on historical comparisons and explained in full here) can't account for strength of schedule, but it still has the Clippers playing at a 57-win pace without Griffin. 

Is that good enough? 

But They Need to Thrive

"We're right on the borderline," head coach Doc Rivers told Zach Lowe for Grantland before the start of the 2015-16 season. "I have no problem saying that. I'm a believer that teams can get stale. After a while, you don't win. It just doesn't work. We're right at the edge. Oklahoma City is on the edge. Memphis, too. We just have to accept it."

This team has lost in the Western Conference semifinals three of the last four seasons, including last year's heartbreaking collapse against the Houston Rockets. The lone exception came in 2013, when the Memphis Grizzlies knocked off the Clippers in the first round. 

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

It's hard to imagine anything but deja vu in 2016. 

The worst-case outcome is falling back to No. 6 or worse during Griffin's absence, which would force the Clippers into an opening-round matchup against the Thunder, Spurs or Warriors. That type of one-and-done exit would be disastrous, likely forcing the team to think seriously about the feasibility of keeping the core together.

Holding down the No. 4 or 5 seed instead allows for a chance to win the initial matchup. But there's a drastic psychological difference between merely surviving the first round of the playoffs and entering the second as a thriving team only barely trailing the superpowers in the season-long standings. 

About a dozen extra games without an All-Star can indeed swing the fortunes from the best-case scenario to the opposite end of the spectrum.

Perception is a powerful thing, and the Clippers slowly sinking out of the upper echelon will result in plenty of speculation. We'll hear they should think about trading Paul for Kyrie Irving. We'll see ideas floated about how L.A. should break up its core and enter into a rebuilding phase. We'll get more of the inane argument that Paul can't lead his team to success in the playoffs. 

However long Griffin takes to return from this, his team will survive. 

But for the 2015-16 Clippers, that's not the goal. 

Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.

Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com or Adam's own databases and are current heading into games on Jan. 26.