Bleacher Report's Ultimate Guide to the National Championship Game
For a regular season that provided so much wackiness, the path to the College Football Playoff National Championship game has been straight chalk for quite some time.
The season's first playoff committee rankings, all the way back in Week 9, had Clemson at No. 1 and Alabama at No. 4. The Crimson Tide knocked No. 2 LSU off a few days later and claimed its spot.
So in the eyes of the College Football Playoff selection committee, and most of the country, the two squads squaring off in Monday's national championship game have been the nation's best teams for two months running.
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And both Clemson and Alabama proved their worth in their respective playoff semifinal matchups on New Year's Eve.
Clemson, the last undefeated team in college football, dominated the second half of the Orange Bowl against the four-seed Oklahoma Sooners, who were favored by the folks in Las Vegas. Quarterback Deshaun Watson and running back Wayne Gallman ran around the Sooners, and a loaded defense came up with big stop after big stop on the way to a 37-17 victory.
Alabama used a steamrolling second half of its own to flatten Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl, beating the Spartans 38-0. The Crimson Tide's crushing defense filled with pro prospects was too much for a team that already had its hands full thanks to a career night from quarterback Jake Coker.
Now their journeys will end in the Arizona desert Monday night.
Clemson is looking to cement its status as a resurgent powerhouse in college football and cap its storybook season with its first national championship win since 1981.
Alabama will be going for its fourth national title under coach Nick Saban, whose famous "Process" of stockpiling 5-star recruits and developing them into can't-miss NFL talent just missed out on the crown each of the last two seasons.
The oddsmakers and public opinion seem to prefer Alabama, a touchdown favorite that has been in this situation several times in the last few seasons.
But Clemson and coach Dabo Swinney have no problem rallying around the underdog role, barking out memorable postgame one-liners and, more importantly, adding one more win against the odds.
Here is Bleacher Report's ultimate guide to the Tigers and Tide's quest to become the second national champion of this wonderful new College Football Playoff era.
Dabo Swinney vs. Nick Saban
College football, on its biggest stage, has provided one of the best possible coaching matchups—Swinney vs. Saban, two men with contrasting styles and stories.
Clemson was Swinney's first head coaching job, and he almost lost it after his second full season with the program. An interim who replaced former boss Tommy Bowden midway through the 2008 campaign, Swinney was squarely on the hot seat after a 6-7 season in 2010.
"[The national title game is] a dynasty coach versus a newcomer trying to climb," Bleacher Report's Greg Couch wrote. "And one thing is undeniable: Under the way the sport is run now, there is no way the climber, Swinney, should have lasted long enough to reach this height."
But Clemson's brass decided to keep the faith in Swinney. Two high-profile coordinator changes, five straight 10-win seasons, the death of the term "Clemsoning" and a stadium-wide pizza party later, Swinney is one victory away from being on top of the college football world.
The only thing standing between him and that mountaintop is none other than his beloved alma mater.
Swinney was raised a passionate Alabama fan. He would later walk on for the Crimson Tide at wide receiver and be a part of their 1992 national championship team and serve as an assistant at Alabama from 1993 to 2000.
Now Swinney will have to coach against an Alabama program that is playing its most dominant ball since the Bear Bryant days he grew up idolizing.
Saban rebuilt Swinney's alma mater into a modern championship-winning machine, yet the ultimate prize has eluded his grasp each of the last two seasons.
A loss to Auburn in a legendary Iron Bowl kept the Tide from a third straight national championship in the 2013 season. Alabama then opened its own College Football Playoff era in last year's Sugar Bowl with a 42-35 loss to eventual champion Ohio State.
And even though this season hasn't been perfect from beginning to end, the Crimson Tide are back in the national championship game. In the three times they've been here under Saban—back in the BCS era—they won by a combined score of 100-35.
For a coach whose dynasty was supposedly dead and buried earlier this year, Saban is standing on the verge of another title in perhaps his best season yet.
"Having seen exactly what was necessary to win at an unprecedented level, Saban altered the formula," Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer wrote. "He gave up on something proven with the hopes of something more ... But in 2015 we learned that Saban can win in more ways than one, and that's a scary thought."
There are storylines aplenty for this national championship game, and we haven't even gotten past the two guys in the headsets. Get ready for a colossal showdown from the coaching perspective.
When Clemson has the ball
And now for the main event in college football's main event—the matchup between Clemson's offense and Alabama's defense.
Of all the all-world defenses Saban and outgoing coordinator Kirby Smart have had during their time in Tuscaloosa, this one could be legendary.
A front seven that allows only 71 rushing yards per game is loaded with highly touted pro prospects, from the frighteningly massive and agile defensive line of A'Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed and Jonathan Allen to the hard-hitting linebacking corps led by the veteran Reggie Ragland.
And while it was an Achilles' heel for Alabama last year, a revamped secondary has become a strength for the Crimson Tide this season. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown 18 interceptions and posted the fourth-lowest pass efficiency rating against the Tide's secondary in 2015.
But if there's an offense designed to give Alabama's defense trouble, it's this one from Clemson.
In the last four seasons, the only teams that have beaten Alabama have run some sort of spread offense. Quarterbacks who have the ability to run have been especially troublesome: Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel; Auburn's Nick Marshall; Ohio State's Cardale Jones; and most recently Ole Miss' Chad Kelly.
As Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh noted, this year's Alabama defense has "quietly done well" against dual-threat passers this season.
"The opponent with the most rushing yards by a quarterback was Mississippi State with 38," Walsh wrote. "Collectively, they have a passing efficiency rating of just 99.47."
Still, Alabama's No. 2-ranked defense hasn't faced a test this season quite like the one that Watson should provide.
The sophomore was the nation's best quarterback this year, finishing third in Heisman voting after racking up 41 touchdowns in the regular season. He's coming off the best rushing performance of his college career, and he showed against Oklahoma he can bounce back from early adversity.
"[Watson] really is probably as fine a dual-threat quarterback as we've played against for a long, long time and certainly does an outstanding job of executing their offense," Saban said, per Walsh. "There's no question about the fact that he's an outstanding leader as well, because you can see the way the players sort of rally around him."
Clemson will look to spread out Alabama's defense and hit it with the powerful rushing game of Watson and Gallman. It's a strategy that Auburn and Ohio State used to success the last two seasons, and it will open things up for the efficient Watson downfield.
If the Tigers can get things rolling and play uptempo football, they'll keep Alabama from rotating bodies on its elite defensive front. If they get behind the sticks early, they'll play right into the Tide's hands.
This won't be another shutout for Alabama; Clemson is too talented in its spread offense. But it won't be an unstoppable performance from the Clemson offense; Alabama is too talented in its stifling defense.
What it will be, though, is one of the best chess matches in recent title-game memory.
When Alabama has the ball
While offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has incorporated more spread schemes and hurry-up pace to Alabama's attack in the last few seasons, the core of the Tide's plan of attack is still the same on offense: wear defenses down.
And the Crimson Tide have the best possible running back for their "man ball" mission. Heisman winner Derrick Henry, a 6'3" physical beast of a rusher, can absorb a huge amount of punishment and still create big plays late in the game.
"In what could be the final game for the junior Heisman Trophy winner before he moves on to the NFL, expect greatness," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote. "Expect Henry to grind it out when it matters most. Expect him to prove one more time that he is college football's ultimate closer."
Clemson's No. 6-ranked defense, like Alabama's, is stacked along the front seven—an incredible feat for defensive coordinator Brent Venables and the rest of his staff, considering how much talent these Tigers lost there from last season.
"Everybody wants to talk about who's left and what you don't have," Swinney said during his press conference Tuesday, per Walsh. "Sometimes you have addition by subtraction. I mean, I don't get caught up in all that. I worry about who we've got."
Nobody in college football has more tackles for loss this season than Shaq Lawson, who will try to play after suffering an MCL injury against Oklahoma.
And the Tigers showed against the Sooners that they can still dominate an offense without Lawson, relying on the talents of Kevin Dodd, B.J. Goodson, Ben Boulware, Carlos Watkins and several other budding stars.
Clemson shut down Oklahoma's rushing attack, leaving the Sooners one-dimensional and having to play catch-up in the second half. That didn't work at all for head coach Bob Stoops and his team.
The Tigers may be able to contain Henry early on and force Coker to prove his masterful performance against Michigan State wasn't just a fluke.
Alabama star wide receiver Calvin Ridley versus Clemson shutdown cornerback Mackensie Alexander will be the best one-on-one matchup of the day. Both players have won several battles against high-profile names this season, and whoever takes advantage of this matchup will be a strong factor in the final result.
Also pay special attention to whenever Alabama has the ball—or is about to get the ball—in special teams situations.
Alabama kicker Adam Griffith has had an incredible redemption season and will be able to put crucial points on the board if the Tide's drives stall. Punter JK Scott came on strong during the end of the year, and his ability to flip the field is extremely valuable.
If Clemson lines up in a punting situation, watch out. The Tigers have tried fakes in each of their last two games—one bad, one good—and the Tide have a game-changing weapon at returner.
"Much of [Alabama's special teams success] is due to the play of senior Cyrus Jones, who has returned a school-record four punts for touchdowns this season," Bleacher Report's Brian Pedersen wrote. "His 57-yard punt-return score early in the second half broke open the Cotton Bowl."
But the ultimate test between the Alabama offense and the Clemson defense will be how tough the Tigers can stay late against Henry, who seemingly gets stronger down the stretch.
If Clemson wears down, Henry could take over in the second half. If it can hang tough, the spotlight will fall on Coker in the final game of what has been a roller coaster of a collegiate career.
Predictions
The college football experts here at Bleacher Report are somewhat divided on how Monday night's title-game showdown will shake out in Arizona.
Three of our experts—Sallee, Kramer and Ben Kercheval—picked the Tide over the Tigers. Sallee, who picked Alabama to win it all during the preseason, envisions a scenario where Clemson has a crucial drive late in the game and the Tide make a stop.
The other two experts—Michael Felder and Couch—are pegging Clemson to complete the perfect season and send Alabama home without a title. Felder made the bold prediction that Clemson would find running room against Alabama's front seven, while Couch sees the Tigers holding Henry to under 100 yards.
Those split opinions are just a testament to how talented and complete these two title contenders truly are.
Both have award-winning offensive stars that can wear out teams in completely different ways. Both have defenses with elite fronts and secondaries that can change momentum on a dime.
The Tigers and the Tide have different motivations and methods, but they'll be equally fired up to play on the biggest stage of them all. Both teams will get stops and scores in a back-and-forth matchup.
Clemson might be able to corral Henry early on in this game—especially if Lawson plays—and hit Alabama for some big plays with Watson and its uptempo offense.
But Alabama is so good at adjusting and coming on strong during the middle of games that one could expect a tight contest heading into the fourth quarter.
In those clutch moments, the championship pedigree of Saban and Alabama will shine bright. If it comes down to a sophomore star quarterback against arguably the best defense in college football, the advantage will ride with the Crimson Tide.
My personal pick is that Alabama will make the one big stop it needs in the fourth quarter with a slim lead and ride Henry to one of those anaconda-like drives that have become synonymous with football in the Saban era.
The Tide will find the end zone once more to put the national championship out of the Tigers' reach and into their own strong grip.
Alabama 30, Clemson 21
Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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