Giants vs. Vikings: What's the Game Plan for Minnesota?
The Minnesota Vikings are scheduled to host the New York Giants in potentially the final game at TCF Bank Stadium this Sunday on Sunday Night Football.
Minnesota has struggled in prime-time matchups this season, dropping contests against the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday Night Football and San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football earlier this season. The Vikings have managed to respond well from both of these losses, but there is not enough time remaining in the regular season to come back from a loss this time around.
More importantly, Minnesota has made it clear that its ultimate goal is to win the NFC North division, and a loss to New York coupled with a Green Bay Packer victory over Arizona earlier in the day would erase this possibility. If the Packers lose, however, a Vikings loss on Sunday Night Football would not affect their postseason seeding—assuming a combination of two Seattle Seahawks losses and two Atlanta Falcons wins does not also occur.
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With Odell Beckham Jr. set to miss the game due to a suspension, this is one Minnesota absolutely should win—regardless of how the game impacts its record or chance to win the North division. If nothing else, the Vikings should see this contest as an opportunity to prove they can compete on a national stage while a victory would end any possibility of them missing the postseason entirely.
Offensive Game Plan
Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings have showcased a multidimensional offense in back-to-back weeks leading up to their matchup against the Giants. Minnesota will have a great opportunity to continue this trend against one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season.
According to Football Outsiders' efficiency-measuring metric DVOA, New York ranks No. 27 against the pass, No. 19 against the run and No. 27 overall. By comparison, only the San Diego Chargers defense ranks lower (No. 31) than the Giants among teams the Vikings have competed against this season. Furthermore, New York's defense comes in at No. 23 and No. 32, respectively, in terms of average points and yards allowed to opposing offenses in 2015.
The Vikings have certainly become more diverse on offense in recent weeks, but running the ball effectively remains their primary offensive goal.
""We want to run the football and we want to be efficient throwing the ball," head coach Mike Zimmer told the local media on Monday. "I don’t particularly see us as a team that’s going to be throwing the ball every play. That’s just not who we are built how we are right now. I think you can see when we’re effective throwing the football how much better we can be offensively."
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With that said, the reason why the Vikings are constructed around an efficient rushing attack has missed practice this week due to injury. Superstar running back Adrian Peterson missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday due to a sprained ankle suffered during Minnesota's victory over the Chicago Bears this past Sunday.
The NFL's leading rusher did participate in full during the Vikings' Christmas practice on Friday, expressing that Peterson should be ready to handle a typical workload against the Giants. But depending on the outcome of Green Bay's matchup against Arizona, Zimmer could elect to rest Peterson to assure that the focal point of Norv Turner's offense will be at optimal health for the postseason.
""I’m too much of a competitor in each game that I wouldn’t want to fight," Zimmer told the local media on Wednesday. "I do want to be smart and that would be more so with guys that are hurt or something like that, our mindset is to go win both of these two games and play our guys, game plan, prepare, do everything that we do because I do think it’s important."
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Zimmer was a bit noncommittal regarding how he plans to approach his team's injury situation, but his competitive persona continues to shine through. Even if Minnesota technically is not playing for anything against New York, it would not be surprising to see the Vikings head coach use everything at his disposal to earn a victory.
Furthermore, Peterson only holds a nine-yard lead over Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin for the rushing title, an accolade that the Vikings running back certainly wants to add to his long list of career achievements. It is no secret that Peterson highly values his personal accomplishments, but he has been very vocal regarding his main goal being to win a Super Bowl title, and further injuring his ankle would make an already outside chance of Minnesota reaching the NFL championship even less plausible.
Given New York's difficulty defending against the pass and Bridgewater's recent hot streak, however, Minnesota could get away with attacking through the air and giving Peterson a limited role to preserve his health for Week 17 and the postseason.
Per Pro Football Focus, Giants rookie Landon Collins has allowed 473 yards in coverage this season—the third-highest total among qualifying safeties this season. Moreover, 258 of these yards have come after the catch, which is both the highest number among the same list of defensive backs and an area that Minnesota pass-catchers have excelled in as of late.
Against the Bears, Minnesota's pass-catchers—Jerick McKinnon (78), Stefon Diggs (37), Jarius Wright (27), Matt Asiata (13), Kyle Rudolph (nine), Mike Wallace (eight)—totaled 172 yards after the catch.
While those who doubt Bridgewater's quarterbacking ability will use this in a case against him, it also shows that Turner and the Vikings quarterback have done a great job manufacturing opportunities for their playmakers to utilize their elusiveness and speed.
Considering the Giants' full-season struggle to make tackles and Peterson's ankle injury, expect the Vikings to do more in the passing game this weekend—particularly with short completions and screens that give their variety of weapons an opportunity to run wild if they can avoid an initial defender.
Defensive Game Plan
It seems like it has been forever since the last time the Vikings fielded their top defensive unit. To be specific, Minnesota has not trotted out its optimal starting lineup since November 22 against Green Bay—a little more than one month ago.
This weekend against the Giants, however, it appears that the Vikings will return nose tackle Linval Joseph, linebacker Anthony Barr and safety Harrison Smith while also having the option to utilize defensive end Everson Griffen in a more complete role. Per the team's official injury report, each of the aforementioned top defenders on Minnesota's defense is listed as probable for Sunday, and only Smith practiced in a limited capacity on Christmas.
Joseph, who has missed the team's past three games due to an ankle injury, is set to return to the field against the organization that drafted him and allowed him the opportunity to become the player Minnesota shelled out a major contract to during 2014 free agency.
According to Brian Murphy of the Saint Paul Pioneer Press, Joseph is more thrilled about getting back on the field than he is about the prospect of competing against the team he won a Super Bowl ring with back in 2011.
"Doesn't matter the opponent," Joseph said Wednesday, trying hard to convince it is just another game. "I've been out for three weeks. The Pro Bowl got taken away from me. I just want to go back on the field, do my job and be with my boys."
Having Joseph back on the field will allow fellow interior defensive lineman Sharrif Floyd to move back to his more natural "speed" tackle position.
Simply, this means he will primarily be asked to line up over the left shoulder of the left guard as a three-technique defensive tackle. In recent weeks, Tom Johnson has filled this role for the Vikings while Floyd moved over to the "clogger" nose tackle role that Joseph has had so much success in this season.
Essentially, Floyd, whose 6'3", 297-pound frame does not fit the typical size for a nose tackle, will be able to spend more time in one-on-one rushing situations while Joseph takes on double teams with his more conventional 6'4", 323-pound frame.
In addition, this will allow Johnson to return to a rotational role and keep Minnesota's defensive line more fresh—especially considering the emergence of Danielle Hunter as an above-average backup defensive end.
While Barr and Smith will not be returning to face a former team as Joseph is, their presence on the field will be a major upgrade for the Vikings defense in a number of ways. As explained during last week's game plan article, the losses of Barr and Smith—particularly the former—have forced Zimmer to change his defensive strategy and play-calling. With both Pro Bowl snubs back in the lineup, the Vikings head coach will be able to blitz more regularly and use more exotic packages to confuse Eli Manning.
At its most basic level, returning Joseph, Barr and Smith to the field makes Minnesota's defense more formidable and intimidating. All three players are All-Pro caliber and represent arguably the best players at each defensive level. Given the Giants' offensive prowess—with or without Beckham—these three players could ultimately prove to be the difference in Sunday's matchup.
Being without these three elite defenders has certainly tested Minnesota's defense, but it may also prove to be a major benefit in the long run. Smith's absence forced undrafted rookie Anthony Harris into a starting role while also allowing more playing time for rookie cornerback Trae Waynes and giving Terence Newman an opportunity to test his versatility at safety.
As a result, the Vikings may have finally found a difference-making safety to complement Smith in the back end of the defense, given Waynes an opportunity to gain some much-needed experience in a primary role and discovered another dimension of Newman's game to further the versatility of a defense that prides itself in its depth.
It is difficult to determine how Minnesota will defend against the Giants defense given how immense of a role Beckham plays in New York's attack. The elite wide receiver has been an unparalleled asset both on the outside and as a slot receiver, making him completely irreplaceable.
The obvious answer to being without Beckham is moving No. 2-option Rueben Randle into a more primary receiving role and utilizing plays that accentuate tight end Will Tye. Neither player offers an even comparable threat to Beckham, but Manning has shown an ability to get the most out of subpar targets in the past.
Based on their past defensive game plans, the Vikings will likely respond with Xavier Rhodes in heads up coverage on Randle and a combination of Captain Munnerlyn, Eric Kendricks, Barr, Smith and either Harris or Andrew Sendejo to defend Tye. Barring an unprecedented breakout performance, the Vikings appear well-equipped to defend both Randle and Tye as well as veteran receiver Hakeem Nicks.
On paper, these one-on-one advantages should allow Minnesota to place a greater emphasis on slowing down running back Rashad Jennings, who has carved out a larger role in the Giants offense in recent weeks. The Vikings will also have to keep an eye on pass-catching running back Shane Vereen, who received 10 targets against the Carolina Panthers this past week, but not having to account for where Beckham is lined up should make this job much easier as well.
New York has not been without Beckham since early in his rookie season so it is unfair to assume its offense will be completely anemic, but the Vikings defense will unequivocally be facing a much weaker Giants offense than the unit that has posted the No. 6-ranked average points per game mark in the NFL this season.
Prediction
Although New York has been a competitive team all season, this has chiefly been a result of an efficient offensive attack, as its defense has been a major disappointment this entire season. To put this into perspective, the Giants have allowed at least 20 points in 13 of their 14 games and have yet to hold their opposition to less than 18 points this entire season.
Without Beckham, who has been on the receiving end of 28 percent of Manning's pass attempts and recorded 36 percent of the Giants' receiving yardage total for the season, this offense will certainly struggle to perform at a high level this weekend.
With Minnesota entering this weekend coming off both its strongest and most efficient offensive output of the season and Bridgewater posting career-best performances in back-to-back games, the Vikings offense should continue trending upward this Sunday.
Unless the Vikings' strange inability to play at a high level on national television seeps into their conscious, this appears to be a very winnable matchup and one that Zimmer's team has shown a capacity to dominate. Expect Minnesota to celebrate both a double-digit win season and playoff berth this weekend, setting the stage for a winner-take-all showdown against Green Bay in Week 17.
Final Score: Vikings 31, Giants 21
All statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
For more Vikings news, statistics and discussion, find me on Twitter @RobertReidellBT.
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