Bears vs. Vikings: What's the Game Plan for Minnesota?
The Minnesota Vikings will host the Chicago Bears at TCF Bank Stadium this Sunday with a realistic chance of clinching their first playoff berth since 2012 on the line.
Four conditions must be met for this to happen on Sunday, as outlined by Daily Norseman's Eric Thompson:
"#Vikings clinch the playoffs Sunday if these four conditions are met: 1. Win vs. CHI 2. TB loss 3. WAS or NYG loss 4. ATL or SEA loss
— Eric Thompson (@eric_j_thompson) December 16, 2015"
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Minnesota crossed off the first requirement earlier this week when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to the St. Louis Rams on Thursday Night Football. With the New York Giants pitted against the undefeated Carolina Panthers and the struggling Atlanta Falcons scheduled to face a competitive Jacksonville Jaguars team on the road, the Vikings could very easily end up celebrating much more than a Week 15 victory if they are able to take care of business against the Bears.
It is an absolute certainty that Chicago is aware of these circumstances, too, however, adding a few extra logs to the scorching inferno inherent to all divisional contests. After being all but eliminated from playoff contention by the Washington Redskins this past week, an opportunity to, at the very least, reduce the likelihood of the Vikings competing in January will play the role of Super Bowl for the Bears this season.
Head coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Norv Turner will have to get creative with their respective game plans if Minnesota hopes to fulfill its obligation in the aforementioned list of conditions, as Bears head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase will have a motivated Chicago team well prepared to even the season series at one win apiece.
Offensive Game Plan
Minnesota exhibited a fully functional and effective offense against a top-tier Arizona Cardinals defense this past week, challenging critics who had condemned the unit as one-dimensional and completely dependent on Adrian Peterson to have success.
Turner really had no choice but to open up the playbook and take some risks against Arizona, as the Vikings were facing an uphill battle from the moment they stepped on the field.
This weekend against the Bears, however, Teddy Bridgewater will not need to provide another career day to keep the Vikings in the game. In fact, the Minnesota signal-caller may ultimately challenge his season low of 18 pass attempts, which came against the Detroit Lions way back in Week 2.
The Vikings recorded 60 offensive plays against the Bears at Soldier Field earlier this season, with Bridgewater dropping back to pass 33 times (55 percent). According to Pro Football Focus, he recorded 27 aimed pass attempts, threw the ball away twice, scrambled for positive yardage on two occasions, had one target batted down at the line of scrimmage and was sacked once.
By comparison, Bridgewater dropped back 23 times over the course of 65 offensive snaps during the previously noted contest against Detroit.
If the variation between pass and run calls that Turner employed during Week 8 provides any insight to how the offensive formula for this weekend will be structured, the Vikings should be expected to slightly favor their aerial attack over the ground-and-pound style exhibited against the Lions.
However, Bridgewater recorded eight of his 33 dropbacks (24 percent) during Minnesota's final two possessions against Chicago when it was losing or tied with little time remaining in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, the Vikings ran a total of nine plays during this same time frame, favoring the pass at an 89 percent rate—34 percentage points higher than standard set for the entire game.
Given the nature of the situation, Turner threw out his offensive game plan, which skewed the full-game data set by 6 percent. Excluding the final nine offensive play calls creates a sample more reflective of the formula Minnesota put together in preparation for Chicago, which concludes a 51-49 percent spread in favor of the running game—a nearly perfectly balanced offense.
In addition, Bridgewater has dropped back to pass at a 53 percent rate for the entire season. This figure dips a bit during home games (50 percent) and drops even lower (48 percent) when the Week 13 blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks is excluded from the sample.
It is no secret that the Vikings offense hinges on the running game, and even a brief viewing of almost any game this season proves this unequivocally. Even in games when Turner has been forced to abandon running the ball early in the game, his first-quarter play-calling outlines his objective to establish the ground game and complement it with short and intermediate passes.
All of these numbers ramp up to the simple point that the offensive formula utilized against the Cardinals was likely more of an outlier than foreshadowing of the immediate future—specifically this Sunday against the Bears.
Considering that Chicago's run defense ranks dead last in Football Outsiders' efficiency measuring statistic DVOA (6.6 percent), No. 24 by Pro Football Focus' grading system (negative-12.6) and No. 30 in yards per attempt allowed (4.7), it seems rather definitive that Minnesota will execute a run-heavy offense this weekend.
Adrian Peterson has recorded a 5.03 yards-per-carry average through 298 attempts against the Bears over the course of his illustrious career, which represents the seventh-highest figure among teams he has totaled at least 50 carries against. Moreover, his 14 touchdowns and 1,499 yards rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, under the same parameters.
Fans may be more invested in Bridgewater's ability to pass the ball now more than ever following a brilliant performance against the Cardinals, but they will have to wait at least another week for an encore, as No. 28 will be running the show for the Vikings against the Bears this Sunday.
Defensive Game Plan
With Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith all on the shelf and his preparation time cut in half, Zimmer proved once again that he is a genius when it comes to defensive game-planning and play-calling with his performance against the Cardinals.
"We come up with game plans and then we throw out things that some guys can't do," Zimmer said during his Friday press conference, via Vikings.com. "We try to change it up a little but not that much."
As important as Joseph is to Minnesota's success on defense, him being inactive did not require Zimmer to alter his game plan very much due to positional depth and nose tackle being a methodical role in his scheme. The absence of Smith and Barr to an even higher degree, however, forced him to abandon multiple staples of his defensive formula and play-calling.
Potentially the most notable trait of Zimmer's defensive scheme and play-calling is his utilization of blitz packages. His Double-A gap look is widely regarded as one of, if not the best in the NFL, earning him a direct association with this blitzing style.
There are plenty of other coaches who will show a Double-A gap blitz, but Zimmer's scheme incorporates a number of different elements to make the style of his look deceiving and the rush itself arguably the most difficult for quarterbacks to diagnose at the line of scrimmage due to a wide variety of positional involvement.
Considering how much success Zimmer has had with his variation of the Double-A gap formation, one would assume that more defenses would incorporate it in some capacity. One of the greatest reasons this is not the case is due to a lack of personnel capable of handling the assignments and significant responsibility embedded in the varying disguises.
Barr, for example, possesses ridiculous athleticism and size in combination with outstanding positional intelligence, allowing him to be effective both as a rusher and when he is asked to fall back, find his coverage assignment and reach its break point. He is very unique in this way, which makes his importance to Zimmer's defensive scheme immeasurable and overall value to the Vikings comparable to that of Peterson or Bridgewater.
Many of these same statements may also be attributed to Smith, but his value is more based in his ability to play both free and strong safety at an elite level. His presence on the field, whether it is as a center fielder in zone coverage or a pass-rusher within the Double-A gap look, forces offenses to know where he is at all times, leading to a multitude of benefits to Zimmer's defense.
With both All-Pro-caliber players sidelined due to injury, Zimmer put together a completely different game plan, which accounted for a lack of experience among defensive replacements (Anthony Harris, Trae Waynes), players forced into different roles (Terence Newman) and significantly less athleticism (Chad Greenway) or an advanced understanding of positional assignments (Edmond Robinson) at the linebacker level.
As a whole, this meant less blitzing, simpler coverage calls and positional responsibilities reflecting more equivalency across the board. Save for two long 65- and 42-yard touchdowns—which were a result of poor technique more than anything—Zimmer's makeshift defense was excellent against the top-ranked offense in professional football from an average yardage standpoint.
According to the Vikings' official website, Smith and Barr have already been ruled out this weekend against Chicago, and Zimmer may very well be without Joseph and Everson Griffen as well. Essentially, this will likely force him to use a similar defensive format with comparable coverage styles and scheme intricacies.
Blitz calls may prove to be almost nonexistent. On top of lacking the necessary personnel, namely Barr, Zimmer will specifically game-plan to contain running backs Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford. While he has been a bit of a disappointment this season—especially given his prowess in college—rookie Eric Kendricks likely represents the best cover linebacker available, making him and whoever is placed in the strong safety role (Harris or Andrew Sendejo, most likely) will be particularly important in this regard.
According to Pro Football Focus, Barr currently leads all non-defensive linemen on the Vikings with 90 pass-rushing snaps, followed by Kendricks (42) and then Smith (31). Two members of this trio of blitz specialists will be inactive while the remainder is expected to maintain a primary coverage responsibility, which will likely result in a very low number of blitz calls.
To put this into perspective and offer some level of statistical support, Greenway (4), Kendricks (2) and Newman (2) were the only three non-linemen to record multiple pass-rushing snaps against Arizona, and Captain Munnerlyn (1) rounds out a total of only four players used in this manner. In comparison, Barr is averaging 7.5 snaps of this variety per game, and 10 different players have been used in blitz packages.
But this does allow the Vikings to run plays with one or more extra players in coverage on a much more frequent basis. As a result, Xavier Rhodes—who will almost certainly be asked to line up in heads-up coverage on Alshon Jeffery the entire afternoon—should have safety help over the top and linebackers filling zones over the middle on almost every passing play, giving his assignment much more room for error.
Furthermore, an "extra" player in coverage inherently increases the likelihood of an interception due to more of the field being naturally accounted for, and Jay Cutler, despite unmistakable improvement in his decision-making and management of the game overall, still has the gunslinger gene.
Brett Favre threw only seven interceptions with the Vikings back in 2009—improving on the previous best interception rate in his career (1.3) by well over a full percentage point while pacing professional football in this category—despite owning the NFL record for career picks, but Minnesota's season still ended on a throw stereotypical to both him and quarterbacks of his variety.
Cutler, despite his truly impressive accomplishments this season, is still susceptible to making the same mistake Favre did, as an old habit needs to slip into his line of thinking for merely a fraction of a second for it to be reflected on the field and in the box score.
Zimmer will put his best available personnel in charge of Chicago's most dangerous playmakers—Forte, Jeffery and Langford—forcing a combination of Cutler and an essentially irrelevant player to beat a defense that has been preparing for this matchup for over a week already.
Prediction
Adrian Peterson has been waiting for three years to get back to the playoffs. With a chance to be not only the catalyst but also the workhorse of an effort that could make him and the Vikings eligible for January football once again, it's hard to imagine him not blowing up with a huge performance.
Furthermore, the Bears rank dead last in defensive efficiency against the run and have been consistently demolished by Peterson throughout his prolific career:
- Peterson has recorded 13 games played against the Bears (11 percent of career total)
- Peterson has recorded 1,499 career rushing yards against the Bears (13 percent of career total)
- Peterson has recorded 14 career touchdowns against the Bears (14 percent of career total)
- Peterson has rushed for 50 yards 12 times against the Bears (92 percent)
- Peterson has rushed for 100 yards eight times against the Bears (67 percent)
- Peterson has rushed for 150 yards three times against the Bears (23 percent)
- Peterson has rushed for 200 yards two times against the Bears (15 percent)
- Peterson has recorded one touchdown in eight games against the Bears (61 percent)
- Peterson has recorded two touchdowns in four games against the Bears (31 percent)
- Peterson has recorded three touchdowns in one game against the Bears (8 percent)
- The Vikings are 6-0 when Peterson rushes for 100-plus yards in 2015 (1.000 win percentage)
- The Vikings are 3-0 when Peterson rushes for 150-plus yards against the Bears (1.000 win percentage)
- The Vikings are 32-15-1 when Peterson rushes for 100-plus yards in his career (.667 win percentage)
Honestly, it should not come as a major surprise if he turns in a 200-yard rushing day No. 7 for his career, giving him sole possession of the most games of such a variety in NFL history. He will receive a high volume of carries, run behind an offensive line benefitting from home-field advantage and carry the ball even angrier than usual with a playoff spot potentially going hand-in-hand with a Week 15 victory.
Defensively, Xavier Rhodes is playing his best football of the season right now, reinserting himself into elite cornerback discussions. He played well in coverage against Jeffery back in Week 8 despite his tangible results arguing in contrary to this notion, and it should not be a major shock if he keeps Jay Cutler's No. 1 target—and the only remote threat to beat Minnesota vertically—largely in check.
These two premises alone are enough for the Vikings to compete for a win against the Bears, but they also boast varying levels of advantages in essentially every other area with exception to offensive line performance.
Even without the elite presences of Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith, Minnesota should not have much of an issue earning a victory in the team's second-to-last game at TCF Bank Stadium.
A win over Chicago knocks out condition No. 1, leaving only conditions No. 3 and No. 4 to be fulfilled for Minnesota to earn a postseason spot this weekend. Keep an eye on both Carolina and Jacksonville—Buffalo defeating Washington or Cleveland upsetting Seattle also represent unlikely ways of fulfilling these requirements—as Minnesota could be celebrating a postseason berth before the sun goes down.
Final Score: Vikings 20, Bears 10
All statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. Injury updates courtesy of Vikings.com.
Find me on Twitter @RobertReidellBT around 3 p.m. CT this Sunday to join me in virtually celebrating January football returning to Vikings Nation.
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