Panthers vs. Falcons: Full Carolina Game Preview

The Carolina Panthers have one more piece of business to take care of in the regular season—wrapping up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. While the 14-0 record they come in with is impressive, they are a significantly better team at home.

They have won their average home game by a score of 32.3-18, as opposed to the 31.9-21.7 score they face on the road. They average 44 more yards per game in Charlotte than they do on the road and have put up better numbers on both offense and defense when adjusting for quality of opposition. Their two closest calls in the last seven weeks have both come on the road—at New York last week and New Orleans two weeks ago.

Thus, it came as no surprise that Ron Rivera announced the starters will all play this week. While it would be difficult for the Panthers not to get home-field advantage at this point, there’s no sense in taking it for granted while it’s still not mathematically clinched.

The opponent? The Atlanta Falcons (7-7), who are essentially done for the season. While there remains one scenario in which they manage to slip into the playoffs, a loss to Carolina—or wins by the Seahawks or Vikings—will send them officially packing.

This is the same Falcons team the Panthers obliterated two weeks ago to the tune of 38-0, which was tied for the biggest margin of victory in franchise history. Admittedly, that was at home, while will be a road trip into the Georgia Dome, but there’s a reason the Panthers have moved to touchdown favorites, per Odds Shark—they’re a significantly better team, whether the game is being held in Charlotte, Atlanta or Timbuktu.

There is a bit of a rumbling about whether or not the Panthers are a historically great team, despite their undeniably historically great record. A win would have the Panthers join the 1948 Cleveland Browns, 1972 Miami Dolphins and 2007 New England Patriots as the only 15-0 teams in professional football history, but the Panthers have had their share of close calls. Seven of their games have been decided by eight points or fewer, and it’s not hard to imagine a bounce or two going a different way. We’d be talking about the 10-4 or 11-3 NFC South champion Panthers in that case—a team that would be just as good as the actual 14-0 version, just slightly less fortunate at times.

Ultimately, the only thing that will silence doubters will be lifting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year. Another big win or two, like that 38-0 win two weeks ago, would certainly help, however, and would wash some of the taste of the near-collapse against the Giants out of the Panthers’ recent memory.

Of course, Atlanta will be looking for revenge after getting destroyed two weeks ago, and it isn't completely out of the playoff picture yet.  Don’t chalk in a win just yet—that is why they play the games.

Location: Georgia Dome, Atlanta 

Time: 1:00 p.m.

TV: Fox, with Kevin Burkhardt and John Lynch on the call once again.

Week 15 Results and Recap

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

Carolina beat New York on a last-second field goal.

The Panthers first looked like they would coast to an easy victory, then like they would allow one of the largest comebacks in NFL history and finally like an undefeated team in the end, escaping New Jersey with a 38-35 victory and the perfect season still intact.

Don’t blame the near collapse on the offense. Cam Newton continues to enter unprecedented territory. He was the first player in NFL history to throw for more than 300 yards, run for more than 100 yards and have five passing touchdowns in the same game. He also led the Panthers on the drive at the end of the game that allowed Graham Gano to kick the game-winning field goal.

Of course, the game has become known more for the fighting and arguing than the actual outcome. The league suspended Giants receiver Odell Beckham one game for his actions, including an intentional helmet-to-helmet shot on Josh Norman. The Giants countered, accusing the Panthers of throwing anti-gay slurs at OBJ and threatening him with a baseball bat, per ESPN.com. It’s an ugly situation, and it darkens what was an entertaining game of football.

The Falcons, meanwhile, kept their season alive with a 23-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, ending a six-game losing streak. The Falcons hadn’t won since October 25 against the Tennessee Titans but still remain mathematically alive thanks to their 6-1 start to the season.

Julio Jones scored his first touchdown in seven weeks; the Falcons scored more points than they had since Week 5 and allowed fewer than they had since Week 9. If they had kept up even this form—not quite the same level that saw them go undefeated to start the season but a strong effort—they’d be in the thick of the playoff race. Instead, they need to win out and get help in order to get in at this point.

NFC South Standings

1. z-Carolina Panthers (14-0)
2. Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)
4. New Orleans Saints (5-7)

Elsewhere in the division, the Buccaneers fell to the St. Louis Rams last Thursday in what might be the last game played in St. Louis, considering the Rams’ potential relocation to Los Angeles. On Monday night, the Saints fell to the Lions in a game between two teams that had already been mathematically eliminated from the postseason.

NFC Playoff Race

1. z-Carolina Panthers (14-0)
2. z-Arizona Cardinals (12-2)
3. x-Green Bay Packers (10-4)
4. Washington Redskins (7-7)
5. x-Seattle Seahawks (9-5, over MIN via head-to-head)
6. Minnesota Vikings (9-5)

The NFC playoffs are more or less set—both remaining playoff slots can be clinched this week, which leaves just seeding to be decided.

That’s not to say there aren’t still important battles to be fought. The Packers have an outside shot of catching the Cardinals for the second bye week in the conference, with their matchup this Sunday being potentially important. A loss for the Packers would also keep the NFC North title in doubt; the Vikings could still catch them, thanks to the Week 17 matchup between the two teams.

The NFC East has come down primarily to Washington and Philadelphia, who play this week. If Washington comes out on top, it wins the division outright. If Philadelphia wins, it has a chance to clinch next week against the Giants. The G-Men are also mathematically alive, but they would need some specific results to climb back into contention.

The Seahawks are trying to hang onto the fifth seed over the NFC North loser; the head-to-head win over Minnesota is helping them out there. Atlanta can still win the fifth seed if there’s a massive pileup at 9-7, but the head-to-head loss it suffered to Minnesota all but eliminates it.

Meanwhile, the Panthers stay above the fray, having all but locked up the top seed in the conference.

News and Notes

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Things got heated between Odell Beckham and Josh Norman on Sunday.

Carolina Can Wrap Up Home-Field Advantage

It’s mostly academic at this point, but the Panthers still haven’t mathematically clinched home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. They hold a two-game lead over the Arizona Cardinals with two games to play but would lose a tiebreaker at 14-2 thanks to what would be a better conference record from Arizona.

That means they need to win either of their last two games—this week at Atlanta or next week versus Tampa Bay—or have Arizona lose either of its two games, at home against Green Bay and Seattle. The odds of all four going against the Panthers are astronomically low—we’re talking 1-in-100 chances, if you go by FiveThirtyEight's data-driven projections, and that might be a bit high.

It’s safe to say that this is the latest a team ever going for an undefeated season has had to worry about home-field advantage. The 2007 Patriots had beaten their closest rivals, the Indianapolis Colts, by Week 16, and thus had home-field advantage wrapped up. The 1972 Dolphins actually had to go on the road during the playoffs, because the home teams in the playoffs at the time were decided by a yearly rotation rather than record; the current system of giving home-field advantage to the best team wasn’t implemented until 1975.

It seems likely that the Panthers will wrap up home-field advantage by the time their game against Atlanta is over.  Even if they somehow slip up in each of their last two games, Arizona has to play two playoff teams who are still fighting for seeding. It’s likely just a matter of time before they confirm the playoffs roll through Charlotte.

Josh Norman Fined for Fighting with Odell Beckham

According to an ESPN.com report, Josh Norman has not escaped punishment for his role in the fracas in New York this past week. He has been fined $26,044 for two separate incidents—a facemask in the first quarter and then later striking Beckham in the head later in the game.

Norman is appealing the fines. On ESPN’s Mike & Mike radio show, he had the following to say, per the ESPN.com report:

"

The crazy part about all the unsportsmanlike conducts, I was just trying to be myself at the end of the day. I know one of those plays, I was in Cover 2, I was just jamming the man inside of the play and I got a personal foul called against me. And that was in the confines of the play, within the whistle.

That wasn't after the whistle, that was within the whistle. ... They're probably going to send me something about that ... but I'm going to appeal it, and I'm going to get my justified case about the whole situation.

I just pretty much showed people what this guy [Beckham] really is and what he stands for. I just don't feel like that's a part of the game that should be played. If you want to play, let's play it straight up, let's do it the right way.

"

Norman is certainly not without blame for some of the incidents. He has always had a fiery personality, and he was involved in the trash-talking and fighting from the beginning. The argument against Norman being fined is that he was provoked into physical contact with Beckham and grabbed the facemask in order to physically move Beckham away, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. While that’s a justifiable stance, it doesn’t change the fact that Norman did get physically involved in after-the-whistle conflicts with Beckham and therefore deserves to be fined.

Beckham deserves the stronger penalty as the instigator—and his one-game suspension certainly qualifies.  Either suspending Norman or merely fining Beckham would not have been a fair doling out of punishment.  Beckham is the one who instigated the physical violence between the two, and he is the one who flagrantly launched himself at Norman’s head.

Norman still did fight back, however, and that simply is against the rules. Beckham deserves blame for instigating, and the referees deserve blame for not taking control of the game and squashing things before they could build to the level they did, but Norman’s actions deserve at least some rebuke from the league.

10 Panthers Named to Pro Bowl

When you go 14-0, it turns out your players get a lot of attention and accolades. The Panthers have 10 Pro Bowlers this season, which is both a record for the team and the most in the NFL this season.

The 10 are:

• Quarterback Cam Newton
• Running back Jonathan Stewart
• Tight end Greg Olsen
• Fullback Mike Tolbert
• Center Ryan Kalil
• Guard Trai Turner
• Outside linebacker Thomas Davis
• Middle linebacker Luke Kuechly
• Defensive tackle Kawann Short
• Cornerback Josh Norman

The Panthers deserve the most Pro Bowlers in the league, and no deserving players were left off. On my ballot, I had them with seven, tied for the most with the Cincinnati Bengals. I should have had them with eight, too—Olsen slipped off my ballot between revisions as I swapped tight ends around, but Pro Football Focus grades him as the top receiving tight end in the league this season—an impressive feat considering he plays in the same league as Rob Gronkowski.

Thomas Davis is also a deserving name; the Pro Bowl unfairly groups 3-4 outside linebackers with 4-3 outside linebackers despite their different skill sets and responsibilities. My ballot went heavier on the 3-4 linebackers, but Davis deserves mention as one of the top cover linebackers in the league.

Even Mike Tolbert, who Pro Football Focus listed as one of five players who should not have made the Pro Bowl, isn’t a bad choice; he’s the most prolific running fullback in the league this year, leading all players with 185 yards.

Safety Kurt Coleman, tackle Michael Oher and special teamer Joe Webb scored high in fan voting but did not make the final cut once the votes of the players and coaches were added. Coleman is perhaps the biggest snub with nine interceptions and should have gotten a slot over Reggie Nelson of Cincinnati, but you could have made strong arguments for both Tyrann Mathieu and Malcolm Jenkins ahead of him. Coleman, as well as Andrew Norwell, would be a logical name to add to the list as players inevitably drop out due to injury.

Of course, the Panthers hope they have no representatives actually at the Pro Bowl. Ever since the NFL moved the Pro Bowl to the week before the Super Bowl, teams that have made the Super Bowl have sent no one to the actual game. Carolina would prefer its 10 players appear in Santa Clara, California, than Honolulu at the end of the year.

Injuries

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Jonathan Stewart may miss his second consecutive game.

The Panthers are fairly healthy entering this game, while the Falcons are slightly more banged up.

Panthers Injuries

• WR Ted Ginn Jr. (quad) was limited in Wednesday’s practice with a quad injury, likely related to the injuries he suffered against the Giants last week. His injuries forced him out of the lineup for a few series, only for him to come back into the game when it got close again. Ron Rivera says that Ginn is expected to play Sunday, per Jeff Darlington of NFL Network; Philly Brown would likely replace him as the deep threat if he was forced to miss the game.
• DE Charles Johnson (calf) practiced on a limited basis with a calf strain; he’s also not expected to miss Sunday’s game. The Panthers would increase the snaps for Kony Ealy and Jared Allen in the rotation if Johnson missed time.
• DT Kyle Love (concussion) is in the concussion protocol after taking a hit against the New York Giants, but he practiced on a limited basis Wednesday. Don’t be surprised if the Panthers take it slowly with him for precautionary reasons.
• RB Jonathan Stewart (foot) remained sidelined with the sprained foot that cost him last week, and it would be shocking if the Panthers risked sending him back into the lineup before he was fully healthy. It looks like another opportunity for Cameron Artis-Payne to get reps; I wouldn’t be surprised if the Panthers shut Stewart down until the playoffs.
• LB David Mayo (hamstring) did not practice again after being declared inactive last week. Expect him to miss another week, which will be a blow for special teams.

Falcons Injuries

• WR Devin Hester (toe) remains limited with the same toe injury he’s suffered from all season. He continues to play, though, and the same should be true this week.
• OT Jake Matthews (back) was limited Wednesday with a back injury, but he seems likely to start. Bryce Harris would be his most likely replacement if things tightened up.
• DT Grady Jarrett (shoulder) left last week’s game with a shoulder injury but was able to practice on a limited basis Wednesday.
• DT Paul Soliai (calf) remains limited with the calf injury he’s been struggling with since Week 13 or so—remember, it cost him the game against Carolina two weeks ago. He played last week and should be in the lineup this week as well. Jonathan Babineaux will get more snaps if Soliai or Jarrett can’t go.
• LB Paul Worrilow (knee) missed last week’s game with a knee injury but was back at practice in a limited fashion this week. The Falcons are mostly playing a wait-and-see game with Worrilow; if his knee tightens up, Justin Durant will move to middle linebacker, while Nathan Stupar would get bumped into the starting lineup.
• G Chris Chester (shoulder) was held out of Wednesday’s practice with a shoulder injury originally suffered against Minnesota at the end of November. He hasn’t practiced on Wednesdays at all since the injury, so expect this to be his normal day of rest. It is unclear who would start if he missed time; he hasn’t missed a snap all season long.

Matchups

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Devonta Freeman was bottled up two weeks ago.

Carolina's Offensive Line vs. Atlanta's Defensive Line

In the matchup two weeks ago, the Panthers running backs, who combined for 126 yards on the ground, beat down Atlanta's defensive line. This is notable, as much of Carolina’s NFL-leading 25-game streak with 100 or more rushing yards has come from the legs of Cam Newton. He has run for at least 20 of those yards in all but five games in that streak, and two of those games he missed due to injury. Because of the game situation, Newton didn’t need to put himself into harm’s way with his legs—and the Panthers still ground out yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry.

Atlanta did manage to sack Newton twice, with Vic Beasley and Jonathan Babineaux each racking up one, but for most of the day, Newton was free to pick his targets. The Falcons will need to actually disrupt Carolina’s offensive timing if they hope to win this one.

Atlanta RB Devonta Freeman vs. Carolina’s Run Defense

Freeman has had a good season. He’s gone over 100 yards four times and is averaging 4.2 yards per attempt. He leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 10, as well. He’s been an offensive weapon for the Falcons.

You could be excused for not realizing that if you only saw him play against Carolina two weeks ago. Freeman carried the ball 12 times for only 40 yards, though he did catch three passes. In fact, in his last three games, Freeman has only averaged 2.8 yards per carry, and his touchdown against Jacksonville was his first on the ground since Week 6. If Atlanta is going to put together a miracle playoff run, it needs to get Freeman back on track.

Carolina CB Josh Norman vs. Atlanta WR Julio Jones

While Norman arguably had his worst day of the season against Odell Beckham last week, being beaten for one touchdown and seeing Beckham drop another one, he still held his targets under 50 yards receiving, per PFF. That makes 18 consecutive games where Norman has allowed fewer than 50 yards through the air.

Two weeks ago, Julio Jones had 88 yards receiving, but 46 of them came in the slot against Bene Benwikere, not Norman. Now, Benwikere is out, and Cortland Finnegan is in the slot, but it will still be primarily a battle between Norman and Jones, as Norman continues his tour of the NFL’s best receivers in the last quarter of the season.

X-Factors

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Kawann Short gave the Falcons a hard time two weeks ago.

Carolina X-Factor: DT Kawann Short

Short had two sacks against Atlanta two weeks ago and six total pressures, as well as three defensive stops, per PFF. Mike Person and Andy Levitre had no answer for him, as he consistently found his way into the backfield and blew up play after play.

This shouldn’t be a surprise: Short has been blowing offensive lines up all season. This was a bit beyond his normal standard, though; it was his top game of the second half of the year, as he’s come back down somewhat from the otherworldly start he had during the early part of season. He has to be looking forward to facing that same offensive line yet again.

Atlanta X-Factor: CB Desmond Trufant

Desmond Trufant did not allow a single reception two weeks ago when these two teams played, had a hit on Cam Newton in the pass rush and made several key tackles in the running game—or, at least, as key as they can be in a 38-0 loss. With the Panthers’ passing attack suddenly kicking into another gear down the stretch, it will be up to Atlanta’s corners to shut down Newton and company; Newton has thrown five touchdowns in three of his past five games.

Trufant has had at least one interception against the Panthers in each of the last two seasons, both in the Georgia Dome. Can he make it three years in a row?

Prediction: Carolina 30, Atlanta 16

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

I've had a different Panther on this slide for every predicted win. I am running out of Panthers.

I wouldn’t expect a repeat of the 38-0 blowout from two weeks ago in this one. It’s rare for two teams in the same division to play two blowouts in the same season, especially when neither team is below .500. Add in the fact that this game will take place in Atlanta instead of Carolina, and we should get more of a competitive contest this time around.

Still, Carolina is the better team and still has something to play for. It will also be looking to somewhat redeem itself after letting things slip away in the second half against the Giants last week, even though the Panthers ultimately came out victorious.

Near-misses like that could actually be good for Carolina—it could serve to refocus the team as it continues the season. That’s bad news for the Falcons, who couldn’t get anything at all going against the Panthers two weeks ago. At home and with the flow of the game going differently this time, the Falcons should find the end zone once or twice this week, but Carolina should still come out on top by multiple scores.

If, however, they should slip up and fall in Atlanta, they’ll likely still have some work to do in Week 17. Arizona plays Green Bay this week, and while a Cardinals loss would also be enough to give the Panthers home-field advantage, I don’t see the Cardinals losing at home to a team that has struggled to be consistent this season. 

If the Panthers do get upset by the Falcons, they’ll still have to beat Tampa Bay next week to clinch the playoffs going through Charlotte; 15 wins is an astronomically high number to clinch that, but it’s simply where Carolina will have to get to.

Prediction: Carolina 30, Atlanta 16

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.