Texans vs. Colts: What's the Game Plan for Houston?

Offensive Game Plan

The Indianapolis Colts rank 29th in points allowed, 29th in passing yards allowed and 25th in rushing yards allowed, so picking a game plan on how to attack them is more about what the Texans feel most comfortable with, instead of identifying flaws in their opponents' defense.

The Colts don't do anything well on defense, so as long as the Texans execute their plan and don't turn the ball over, they should have more success on offense than they've had over the last two weeks.

How bad have the Colts been recently? Over their last two games, they've given up 45 and 51 points to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville respectively, while allowing 902 passing yards combined.

T.J. Yates is a limited quarterback, but considering the solid performance he had against the New York Jets a few weeks ago, he should do fine against Indianapolis.

This was said last week, but the Texans didn't do it, so maybe it's worth mentioning again. Head coach Bill O'Brien and his offensive coordinator, George Godsey, have to look for ways to get DeAndre Hopkins open quicker and get him the ball more frequently.

Ever since Hopkins blew up "Revis Island" in that Jets game, every opponent since then has doubled him with a safety or at least lined up in a way that looked like double coverage to impact the read of Brian Hoyer and either make him go somewhere else or at least hold on to the ball for an extra second.

If the Texans see a lot of man coverage early with the safety over the top, they have to put Hopkins in bunch or stack formations to help give him a free release off the line of scrimmage and a better chance to get open quickly underneath where Yates can find him.

They can't just accept that their opponent has taken Hopkins away and rely on drop-prone targets like Nate Washington and Ryan Griffin; Hopkins is their best offensive skill player, and his production has a huge impact on their success.

The Texans are 5-2 this season when Hopkins scores a touchdown but only 1-5 when he doesn't.

It may not look like Hopkins is open all the time, but to some level, Yates will have to trust him enough to throw it up at times. Colts cornerback Vontae Davis had an excellent season last year but ranks 42nd in opposing quarterback rating and is tied for the league lead in most passing touchdowns allowed with seven.

Their other main corner Greg Toler ranks 101st in QB rating, 112th in passing yards allowed and 109th in the coverage grade from Pro Football Focus out of the 116 eligible corners who have played on at least 25 percent of their team's snaps this season.

Hopkins is a better player than any Colts defender that gets assigned to him, so give your best player a chance and feed him the ball. Finishing the game with only six targets to him like last week against New England would be inexcusable.

Another way to get Hopkins better looks would be to force the Colts to put a safety in the box by running the ball successfully. That's a pretty obvious thing to say, but Indianapolis has given up over 150 yards rushing in each of their last two games and has been gashed right up the gut.

Against Indianapolis the last two weeks, DeAngelo Williams of Pittsburgh and Denard Robinson and T.J. Yeldon of Jacksonville gained 143 yards on just 25 carries—5.72 per attempt—on runs between the guards.

The Texans don't have the best rushing attack in the league, but if they hammer Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk between the guards with the inside zone concept, which had some success last week, then they should post their fourth 100-yard rushing game in the last five weeks.

Defensive Game Plan

In the same way the Texans' opponents have decided to take away Hopkins and make someone else beat them, Houston's defense should do everything possible to take away T.Y. Hilton and make another Colts player beat them.

Their second leading receiver, Donte Moncrief, is averaging 25 less receiving yards per game and is listed as doubtful to even play in this game.

After that, the Colts' next leading receiver is averaging fewer than 30 receiving yards per game. That player, Andre Johnson, put up good numbers in his return to Houston the last time these teams played, but that was a different Texans defense.

Indianapolis ranks 28th in rushing yards gained, 29th in rushing yards per attempt and 27th in rushing touchdowns this season, so the threat of Frank Gore beating them with a great day on the ground isn't very severe to say the least.

If the Texans use a safety to play over the top of Hilton and bracket him for most of the game, they'll put themselves in a position to get turnovers if Matt Hasselbeck still throws the ball that way or get sacks if he has to hold the ball to look for other targets.

J.J. Watt will be limited unless he figured out how to play around his injury while playing against New England last week, but Jadeveon Clowney had a breakout game and could cause big problems for Indianapolis.

At the risk of sounding morbid, Hasselbeck left last week's game against Jacksonville with injured ribs and said earlier this week that he was having trouble breathing, so one hit from a Texans defender could send Charlie Whitehurst into the game.

In Whitehurst's last start—December 2014 against Indianapolis—he completed just 12-of-28 passes for only 72 yards. Nothing in the NFL is a guarantee, but most Houston fans would probably feel good about their team's odds if Whitehurst plays.

Key Matchup: Running Against Jerrell Freeman

The Colts' linebacker missed the previous matchup against Houston and is coming back from an injury after missing several games, but he has proved capable of causing problems for opposing teams.

Freeman is the Colts' top-rated defensive player and the fourth-best inside linebacker overall this year, according to Pro Football Focus.

Like many middle linebackers, Freeman isn't great in coverage but has been great against the run this season when healthy enough to play. Freeman ranks second in the NFL for inside linebackers in stop percentage (the percentage of plays in which a player is responsible for a stop when playing run defense).

He's also only missed three tackles this season and ranks fourth in combined tackling efficiency, according to PFF. 

Prediction

Fans of the Colts could make a similar argument, but it's hard to figure out how the Texans would possibly lose this game. Yes, they will be playing on the road in a city where they've never won with a backup QB, but Indianapolis is falling apart.

They can't run the ball, their backup quarterback can barely breathe and they haven't been able to stop the run or the pass recently; why should we expect or pick them to win?

The Texans obviously have nearly as many flaws, but the one thing they have going for them is a defense that has been very good for most of the second half of the season.

The Texans offense stinks, and so does the offense and defense for the Colts, but the Texans defense could play really well. Houston's defense is the only group or unit that will play in this game that might be able to carry a team and win the game. 

Prediction: Texans 17, Colts 9