New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: What's the Game Plan for Tampa Bay?
As the NFL season heads into the fourth quarter, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still in the thick of the NFC playoff race at just one game back of the final wild-card spot.
Their next test on the way to an improbable playoff run after finishing with the leagueâs worst record last year: a second straight home game against a division rival. They welcome the New Orleans Saints to Raymond James Stadium on Sunday.
The Bucs won this seasonâs first meeting with the Saints, which was a 26-19 road win in quarterback Jameis Winstonâs second career NFL start. It was an important bounce-back win for a team that had been run out of its own building the week before, which seems like a lifetime ago with how the Bucs have been playing as of late.
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Tampa Bay has won four of its last six games, now sitting at 6-6 with a chance to sneak into the playoffs if everything falls its way.
Letâs take a look at what the Bucs need to do on both sides of the ball to keep their playoff hopes alive and get above .500 for the year.
Offensive Game Plan
After watching Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers carve up the Saints through the air last week, many might expect the Bucs to get into a similar shootout on Sunday. But Tampa Bay would be wise to stick to its identity this week, emphasizing a healthy dose of both Doug Martin and Charles Sims in the ground game.
The Bucs own the NFLâs second-best rushing attack, averaging just over 143 yards per game. Martin is currently just 118 yards behind the Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson for the league lead in rushing yards, and Sims has developed into the perfect complement as both a runner and a receiver out of the backfield.
Even against one of the leagueâs top rushing defenses, the Bucs were able to rack up 166 yards on the ground in a winning effort against the Atlanta Falcons last week.
Staying committed to the ground game is not only Tampa Bayâs best chance for offensive success, itâs also its best weapon against Drew Brees and the potent Saints offense. If the Bucs can sustain long drives by moving the chains on the ground in short chunks, theyâll keep Brees off the field for long stretches of time and limit his opportunities to put points on the board.
If the Bucs can run the ball effectively early on, theyâll force the Saints to creep an extra defender into the box, which will allow Winston to take advantage of the leagueâs worst pass defense with well-timed big plays. The Saints are currently giving up a league-worst 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and they have allowed 50 pass plays of 20 yards or more so far this season. Theyâve also given up 35 touchdown passesâseven more than the second-worst team in that category.
Balance will be the key for Tampa Bay on offense this week. If the Bucs can maintain a healthy blend of both the run and pass, theyâll keep the Saints on their heels and be able to take full advantage of the leagueâs worst defense. With key players returning throughout the starting lineup on offense, Tampa Bay should be primed for a big day on that side of the ball against its NFC South rivals.
Defensive Game Plan
The Bucs already know this blueprint well, having stifled Brees and the New Orleans offense on the road in Week 2 on their way to a 26-19 victory. Tampa Bay was able to get after Brees early and often, getting plenty of hits on the veteran quarterback and clearly throwing off his rhythm all game long. The plan should be similar this week, but the Bucs will have to execute it without some of their best defensive starters.
Brees proved last week he can still sling it with the best of them, throwing for 282 yards and three scores while nearly knocking off Newton and the Panthers in what would have been a huge upset. The lesson is one all NFL teams should know by now: If you give Brees a clean pocket and enough time, heâll shred any NFL defense.
The Saints will have to rely on Breesâ arm even more than usual this week, as theyâll be without their leading rusher in the backfield. The team placed Mark Ingram on season-ending injured reserve earlier this week, and he underwent surgery on his injured shoulder. New Orleans will likely employ the committee-style approach to the ground game this week with the likes of C.J. Spiller and Tim Hightower, but replacing Ingramâs impact will be much easier said than done.
The Bucs proved last week they can still create pressure without the likes of Gerald McCoy and Jacquies Smith in the lineup, and they may need to do it again this week. McCoy has returned to practice, but Tampa Bay has already ruled out Smith for Sundayâs game.
Howard Jones and William Gholston will have to step up yet again at defensive end if the Bucs want to replicate their success from Week 2 when it comes to getting after Brees and shaking him up.
One huge key for the Bucs will be replacing the presence and production of rookie middle linebacker Kwon Alexander, who will miss the rest of the regular season due to a suspension for violating the NFLâs substance-abuse policy. Both Bruce Carter and Danny Lansanah have experience at the position, but neither has Alexanderâs level of athleticism.
The Bucs have done a solid job of containing dynamic receivers like Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. and Dez Bryant in recent weeks, and theyâll have to do it again this week against the explosive Brandin Cooks. If they can keep Cooks from getting behind them for any big plays, create consistent pressure on Brees and bottle up an Ingram-less rushing attack, the Bucs should take another victory and sweep their division rivals.
Top Matchups and Players to Watch
Bucs Receivers vs. Saints CB Brandon Browner
Brandon Browner has arguably been the worst player on the leagueâs worst defense this year, from a laundry list of penalties to opponents just scorching him in coverage on a regular basis. Carolina took full advantage of this last week, and the Bucs should be looking to do the same on Sunday.
Both Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson will spend plenty of time lined up across from Browner, and after watching last weekâs film, you can bet Winston is going to exploit that matchup every chance he gets.
Bucs OT Donovan Smith vs. Saints OLB Hauâoli Kikaha
A pair of rookie second-round picks will face off this week, as Donovan Smith and Hau'oli Kikaha will see plenty of each other on Sunday, especially in passing situations.
Kikaha has already notched four sacks as a rookieâthe second-most for the Saints so far this season. Smith has been a pleasant surprise for the Bucs since they thrust him into the starting left tackle role from Week 1 onward, bouncing back from a rough outing in Week 12 with a strong performance last week.
Prediction
The pressure is all on Tampa Bay in this one, as it still has playoff hopes riding on a victory, while the Saints have been relegated to playing spoiler at this point. The Bucs are hot, playing at home and should be able to handle this game easily on paper.
That being the case, this matchup will test the mental toughness of a Tampa Bay team with plenty of youth, as the Bucs try to avoid a letdown game that would likely make all their playoff hopes vanish into thin air.
The Bucs have already proved many times this season theyâre capable of overcoming adversity, and theyâll have to do it again with the injuries they have on defense and the pressure of a game theyâre supposed to win.
Brees may keep the Saints in it for a while, but their defense will prove to be their undoing again, as Winston, Martin and the Tampa Bay offense moves the ball up and down the field at will. Theyâll keep the ball out of Breesâ hands and continue their trend of getting touchdowns instead of field goals out of most of their trips inside the red zone.
The Bucs will keep their playoff hopes alive for yet another week with a big home win against a division rival for the second straight game.
Final Prediction: Bucs 38, Saints 27
All stats courtesy of NFL.com.
Luke Easterling is a Featured Columnist covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and NFL draft for Bleacher Report. He is also a senior NFL draft analyst for Draft Breakdown. Follow him on Twitter @Luke Easterling.
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