Colts vs. Jaguars: What's the Game Plan for Indianapolis?

It has hit that point in the season when every game starts to matter when it comes to the playoff hunt and a team’s draft slot. Wins in September are technically just as valuable as wins in December, but with every team generally knowing where it stands in both races, games carry an increased meaning this time of year.

Things are no different for the Indianapolis Colts, who sit on top of the AFC South but only by way of a tiebreaker with the Houston Texans. The Colts are undefeated against division opponents this year, and because of this they would be in the playoffs if things were to end today.

But, with three of the team’s last four games coming against AFC South opponents, each matchup could be the difference between a playoff berth and an early draft pick. First up are the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday, a team that the Colts barely escaped against the first time around.

With a much improved passing attack led by Blake Bortles and the Allens—the team’s top two receivers, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns—Jacksonville is capable of scoring in droves, especially against a poor Colts pass defense.

So how does Indianapolis go about taking down the Jaguars on the road and ensuring it doesn’t lose its hold on the AFC South? Let’s take a look at the game plan for the Colts.

Offensive Game Plan

Don Wright/Associated Press

The offensive game plan against the Steelers last week didn’t work how it was drawn up. The idea was correct—a heavy passing attack in the early stages—but something didn’t click, and the wide receivers could never get going, which killed any chance Indianapolis had at success early.

Surprisingly enough, Frank Gore was the top dog in terms of offensive production against a stout Steelers run defense, leading the team in both rushing and receiving yards and re-establishing himself as one of the team’s top weapons.

After learning these lessons against the Steelers, Indianapolis should adapt and improve against a similar Jacksonville defense.

The biggest weakness for the Jaguars this season has been stopping the pass, which plays right into the hands of the Colts. With Jacksonville ranking No. 26 in the league in pass defense, Indianapolis should be quick to get the ball into the hands of T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief to make sure they don’t disappear as they did last week.

If the Colts want to find real success and keep up with the high-flying passing attack of the Jaguars, they need to incorporate Gore in the passing game more and use a lot of dumpoffs and short routes to get the ball out of Matt Hasselbeck’s hands quickly. If Indianapolis can avoid getting behind early with a strong passing attack, it will prevent the on-the-fly changes it has had to make all season.

Defensive Game Plan

Don Wright/Associated Press

After last week’s debacle of a performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers, one thing was made abundantly clear for the Colts: Whatever it takes, the team needs some sort of pass rush if it is to fix its defensive woes any time soon.

Against the Steelers, Indianapolis sold out to stop the passing attack and failed to send ample pressure at the quarterback, which turned out to be slightly counterintuitive as Ben Roethlisberger had seemingly unlimited time to pick out his passes and find Antonio Brown.

With the Jaguars sporting a strong passing attack of their own, the Colts have to get pressure on Blake Bortles or risk giving up another huge game through the air.

The secondary is going to struggle with or without extra help from the linebackers—that is how it has been all season—so Indianapolis needs to dedicate extra players to blitzes and taking down Bortles, which will relieve pressure on the defensive backs.

Indianapolis has shown this season it can get to the quarterback successfully—the second half against Tampa Bay was a masterclass in how pressure on a young quarterback can change a game—and needs to do so against the Jaguars.

Key Matchups and Players

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WR Phillip Dorsett

Last week both Hilton and Moncrief were absent from the passing attack, which is never the way to go about pulling off a win. But if the team’s top two receivers do disappear again, the Colts have a backup plan with the returning Phillip Dorsett.

The rookie wide receiver has been out for a few weeks with an injury but has been practicing this week and looks primed to make his return. Against the Jacksonville secondary, Dorsett’s speed could be a big boost for the team.

TE Coby Fleener

There has been a lot of talk about Dwayne Allen and his lack of production this year—which has bordered on the absurd for a player of his caliber—but until he displays otherwise, it is hard to rely on the tight end. However, the Colts do need production in the receiving game from the position, so it falls to Coby Fleener to carry the load.

As the third leading receiver on the team in targets, receptions and yards, Fleener has been the unsung hero of the passing game this year. He could be in for a big game if the Colts decide to go with the shorter passing attack instead of deep bombs to the outside threats such as Hilton.

CB Vontae Davis

At this point it feels silly to waste more time talking about the Colts secondary. Everyone knows how bad it has performed this year—with the exception of Mike Adams—and how things don’t have much hope of getting drastically better this season.

Despite his skill set and superstar status, Vontae Davis has been unable to avoid the struggles that have permeated throughout the secondary this year. Regularly paired with the top receivers in the league, the cornerback has looked lost at times against the likes of Julio Jones and Antonio Brown. Although Hurns and Robinson aren’t quite at the level of those two, if Davis struggles against either of them, Sunday will likely turn sour quickly.

LB Robert Mathis

Another week, another mention of Robert Mathis as a key player for the Colts. But until the team finds another viable option to lean on to pressure the quarterback, Mathis’ history makes him the best bet at turning around the pass rush.

He has been playing more snaps in recent weeks, and they haven’t exactly paid dividends quite yet, but Mathis is one of the best pass-rushers in team history. You never know if he will just turn it on one game and fix whatever problems the Colts have been dealing with this year. That’s how good he is, but that doesn’t mean it will actually happen.

Prediction

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A lot can go wrong for Indianapolis in this game, with so much riding on it and coming off such an abysmal performance against the Steelers.

Without facing a pass rush, Bortles will be able to find Robinson or Hurns with relative ease, and the lack of a running game for the Jaguars won’t be enough of a factor to slow down the offensive attack.

If the Colts can’t take advantage of a weak secondary for the second straight week and the receivers struggle, it will be hard to keep up with a Jacksonville team that has been scoring a ton of points in recent weeks, even if Gore continues to play well.

But in the end, it is hard to image the Colts' skill-position players struggling as much as they did against the Steelers, especially with a mostly healthy Hasselbeck and the possible return of Dorsett.

It should be a high-scoring game, but the Colts will come out on top, with Hasselbeck finding his way back into the win column after suffering his first loss this season.

Prediction: Colts 31, Jaguars 20