Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings: What's the Game Plan for Minnesota?
The Minnesota Vikings return home to TCF Bank Stadium this weekend for another opportunity to gain league-wide respect with a win over the Seattle Seahawks.
Leaving Sunday's game with a victory will have to be earned, however, as the Seahawks boast a suffocating defense and an offense that is difficult to slow down. While Minnesota does roster the necessary tools to combat Seattle on both sides of the ball, actually doing so will require consistent discipline, a well-designed game plan, creative play-calling and pinpoint execution.
Adrian Peterson remains the focal point of Norv Turner's offense, while stopping the run and putting plenty of pressure on the quarterback continues to be the backbone of Mike Zimmer's defense. But there are slight twists that may be applied on both sides of the ball to maximize results against the Seahawks.
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Offensive Game Plan
Since arriving in 2010, Pete Carroll has built arguably the best defense of this generation and one of the most dominant units of all time.
| Year | Points | Yards |
| 2010 | 25 | 27 |
| 2011 | 7 | 9 |
| 2012 | 1 | 4 |
| 2013 | 1 | 1 |
| 2014 | 1 | 1 |
| 2015 (To Date) | 8 | 4 |
With the exception of his first year, Carroll's defenses have ranked in the top 10 in both points and yards allowed while finishing at the top of the league in both categories each of the past two seasons.
Seattle's consistent dominance is largely a product of complementary defense with each level playing off of each other to stop opposing offenses. The Seahawks' defensive line and pass-rushers place frequent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, while a very intelligent and athletic secondary holds its own in both man and zone coverages. Furthermore, each unit is capable of dominating on its own, as the pass rush is often bailed out by shutdown coverage and vice versa.
It is no secret that Minnesota's offense is at its best when Peterson is able to consistently run the ball effectively throughout the entirety of the game:
- Minnesota is 7-0 when Peterson receives 20 or more carries.
- Minnesota is 6-0 when Peterson rushes for 100 or more yards.
- Minnesota is 5-1 when Peterson averages 5.0 or higher yards per carry.
- Minnesota is 4-2 when Peterson rushes for a touchdown.
The Vikings' running back has produced mixed results in three matchups against the Seahawks throughout his career. While the trends tend to lean in Seattle's favor, Peterson did break out for a huge game against the Seahawks during his 2012 MVP campaign.
| Year | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns | Per-Carry Average | Winning Team |
| 2009 | 24 | 82 | 0 | 3.42 | Vikings |
| 2012 | 17 | 182 | 2 | 10.71 | Seahawks |
| 2013 | 21 | 65 | 0 | 3.10 | Seahawks |
| Total | 62 | 329 | 2 | 5.30 | Vikings: 1-2 |
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, which accounts for a number of different factors in gauging overall efficiency, Seattle currently comes in at No. 11 (negative 15.2 percent) against the run, No. 8 (negative 1.0 percent) against the pass and No. 7 (negative 7.9 percent) in overall defensive efficiency.
The simple logic behind these numbers argues that it will be tough sledding for Minnesota's offense this weekend, placing an even heavier burden than usual on Peterson's shoulders to produce strong results. His efficiency running the ball allows the Vikings to control the clock, open up passing lanes, tire out the opposing defense, rest their own defense and simply make everyone's job easier.
In the event that Seattle is able to bottle up Peterson on a consistent basis, Minnesota will be forced to alter its game plan and throw the ball more frequently. These situations typically have not gone well for the Vikings, as their record stands at 1-3 when Teddy Bridgewater attempts 32 or more passes in a game this season.
Good balance between pass and run always represents an ideal scenario, however, and the Seahawks' opponents in recent weeks have shown Seattle is susceptible to certain passing plays.
Seattle typically receives outstanding pass coverage on the outside with cornerback Richard Sherman being the face of this defensive aspect. However, it is very rare for Seattle to move Sherman inside in slot coverage, as he has received just 25 coverage snaps on the inside, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Seahawks, coincidentally, struggle to defend slot receivers, regardless of whether this is an example of correlation or causation.
| Week | Team | Player | Position | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD |
| 8 | Cowboys | Cole Beasley | WR | 10 | 8 | 100 | 2 |
| 10 | Cardinals | Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 5 | 5 | 81 | 0 |
| 11 | 49ers | Anquan Boldin | WR | 5 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| 12 | Steelers | Markus Wheaton | WR | 11 | 8 | 192 | 1 |
| Total | N/A | N/A | N/A | 31 | 24 | 430 | 3 |
As the above chart shows, Seattle has had plenty of issues containing interior receivers—and it doesn't take an elite wideout to get these results—as the two best efforts listed were performed by lesser-known playmakers.
The most recent example of a slot receiver blowing the Seahawks' defense wide open came just last week, as Pittsburgh's Markus Wheaton exploded for a 200-yard day with the vast majority of those yards being compiled while lined up in the slot.
Much of what Wheaton accomplished this past Sunday was done with basic routes out of very standard formations. In this specific example, he is lined up in the slot on the strong side with Martavis Bryant outside to his right and Antonio Brown across the formation on the boundary side of the field.
With Pittsburgh's more notable receivers running vertical routes down the sidelines, Wheaton runs a very simple 10-yard post over the middle of the field. Ben Roethlisberger delivers a strike to his receiver within the soft spot of Seattle's zone coverage over the middle for a 21-yard completion.
These intermediate pass attempts were consistently successful against the Seahawks this past weekend. Part of that is due to Seattle's emphasis on taking Brown out of the game with man-to-man coverage, often with safety help. But the trend of successful slot performances negates this one being an outlier.
In addition to Wheaton catching a number of passes on short and intermediate routes, he also managed to burn Seattle's defense vertically from the slot.
Once again, Wheaton is lined up on the strong side of the formation with Bryant outside to his left and Brown on the opposite side of the field facing man-to-man coverage from Sherman.
This time, however, both Brown and Bryant run comeback routes on the outside, and Wheaton cuts inside about five yards deeper over the middle. As Wheaton separates from cornerback Jeremy Lane, both Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor drop back to defend the pass—but it's too late.
Roethlisberger hits his receiver in stride just moments before either Seahawk safety could make a play, and Wheaton trots into the end zone with a 69-yard touchdown catch.
The Seahawks' issues defending against slot receivers have resulted in multiple teams moving their best weapon inside. Even Dez Bryant saw three targets out of the slot against Seattle back in Week 10, two of which were caught for a total of 35 yards and a touchdown.
Stefon Diggs certainly has the ability to line up in the slot, but it is far more likely that the Vikings will use Jarius Wright in an attempt to exploit this weakness. Minnesota's top slot receiver has been a boom-or-bust player throughout his career, but he does have a tendency to explode a couple of times over the course of a season. He is capable of doing everything that Wheaton did for the Steelers this past weekend, and it should come as no surprise if Wright has a big game on Sunday.
In addition to struggling with slot receivers, Seattle also has had trouble defending tight ends against teams that feature this position. Cincinnati Bengals breakout star Tyler Eifert, for example, was 8-of-12 for 90 yards and a pair of scores against the Seahawks during Week 5. More recently, San Francisco's Vance McDonald caught all four of his targets for 65 yards and a touchdown.
These performances, combined with strong showings from players like Jason Witten, Greg Olsen and even Jared Cook, point to Kyle Rudolph being another key offensive player for the Vikings on Sunday. Rudolph, who has broken out for 13 catches, 159 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks, has already begun to establish a more important role in Minnesota's offense. This week should only continue that trend.
Look for Peterson to continue being the go-to option for Minnesota. But when Bridgewater drops back to pass, expect to see many of his attempts sent in the direction of Wright or Rudolph.
Defensive Game Plan
Sunday will be a very challenging day for Minnesota's offense, but its defense will not exactly have the day off against Russell Wilson, Thomas Rawls and the rest of Seattle's offense.
Despite Marshawn Lynch being out due to injury, the Seahawks have had little issue running the ball consistently. Rawls, an undrafted free agent out of Central Michigan, has totaled 685 rushing yards and three touchdowns to date during his rookie season, establishing himself as one of the best first-year performers at his position.
The Seahawks, similar to the Vikings, like to hand the ball off to their running back consistently throughout games. Over the past two weeks, Rawls has received 30 and 21 carries against San Francisco and Pittsburgh, respectively. Keeping him in relative check will be the first order of business for Zimmer's defense. But the sudden emergence of Seattle's passing game makes stopping its offense a multi-dimensional affair now.
Wilson has typically taken a backseat to Lynch throughout his young career. In recent years, Seattle's signal-caller has been asked to play a very similar role to the one Bridgewater currently plays in Minnesota— being situationally efficient and careful with the football.
This formula led the Seahawks to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances. But with Lynch battling injuries and their defense not playing at nearly as high of a level as in past years, Wilson has been asked to become more of a pocket passer. He has responded with arguably his best season to date, as he is on pace to blow away his career highs in both passing touchdowns and yards.
While he has been throwing down the field much more than in past years, his yardage total has received a significant boost from his receivers' ability to make plays after the catch. Doug Baldwin, who has also seen his numbers spike this season, has been primarily responsible for these types of plays. But Tyler Lockett has also been a dangerous weapon with the ball in his hands during his rookie season.
The Seahawks have consistently used crossing routes effectively this season, with Baldwin being particularly dangerous on these calls. In the play shown above, Baldwin is lined up in the middle of two receivers at the top of the screen. Both receivers on the outside are going to push the coverage deep with vertical routes while Baldwin runs a 10-yard dig over the middle.
With the defense flexed deep, Baldwin is able to separate from his defender and emerge wide-open over the middle of the field. Wilson hits his No. 1 receiver in stride, and Baldwin maximizes the play result with a nice run after the catch, hanging a 30-yard reception on one of the top defensive secondaries in the NFL.
Pittsburgh was victimized by a very similar crossing pattern last week, with the result being far more costly due to an even better play by Baldwin.
In an eerily similar look, Baldwin is once again lined up in the middle of a trips wide receiver set on the weak side of the formation. The only major difference in this alignment compared to the play shown above against Arizona is that the lone receiver lined up on the opposite side of the field is a tight end on the inside.
Once again, the receiver at the top of the screen is sent deep with a go route to spread the defense vertically. Baldwin cuts inside on a dig 10 yards into his route, separating from his defender in the process. The Pittsburgh safety sees him come free over the middle of the field and makes a break on the ball, but he is ultimately too late to break up the pass.
However, unlike the Arizona defense that was able to come up and make a play on Baldwin, Pittsburgh is unable to tackle the Seattle receiver when given the opportunity. He shakes free of a pair of Steeler defensive backs and explodes into the open field for an 80-yard score, one that ultimately proved to be a difference-maker in the Seahawks' 39-30 victory.
Seattle's ability to have consistent success on these plays is a product of a number of elements. First and foremost, defenses have to respect Wilson's ability to scramble. He has already totaled 399 rushing yards on 77 attempts this season, the vast majority of which came through improvisation.
Minnesota has struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks throughout history and will need to show this same respect on Sunday. The Vikings will likely utilize a spy defender, probably a linebacker, to make sure Wilson doesn't get too far if he leaves the pocket. This, however, removes one player from a coverage role and allows big plays like the two shown above to happen more frequently.
As a result, Minnesota will need to provide excellent one-on-one coverage, disciplined play and sure tackling to contain both Wilson as a runner and Seattle's receivers after the catch.
Stopping conventional run plays will already be a greater challenge than usual, as Minnesota nose tackle Linval Joseph is set to miss Sunday's action with an injury and Wilson is always a threat to take off out of the pocket. Containing the Seahawks' rushing attack will be a significant issue for the Vikings.
Prediction
Minnesota has been criticized all season for its lack of a signature victory. The Vikings fell just short of beating the Denver Broncos all the way back in Week 4 and again missed an opportunity for a high-profile win against the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago.
With the Seahawks coming to town this weekend and representing a legitimate threat to the Vikings in the wild-card race—assuming they are unable to beat out the Packers for the division—this is a chance Minnesota absolutely needs to capitalize on.
Earning league-wide respect with a win over a Super Bowl-caliber team is nice, but boosting team morale and raising team confidence can be a difference-maker. Typically it isn't the best team that takes home the ultimate prize. It's the one that gets hot toward the end of the season, stays hot during the playoffs and shows up once again during the championship game.
The Vikings, who share a number of similarities to the Seahawks team that won the Super Bowl two seasons ago, could end up being the Cinderella story that puts it all together late in the season and explodes during the playoffs. This is the type of matchup that unlocks the door to that potential and that, more than anything, would make defeating Seattle meaningful.
Minnesota has the luxury of playing host on Sunday, giving it a significant advantage due to how awful both its and Seattle's offensive lines have played this season. Furthermore, T.J. Clemmings and the Vikings' front-five need all the help they can get against one of the most dangerous pass-rushing units in the NFL.
This is the type of game that can go either way. But given that these two teams are pretty evenly matched across the board, the undefinable boost of playing the underdog coupled with playing at home gives the Vikings a slight edge in this one.
These two teams may meet again in January in a game that would favor an experienced Seahawks team that doesn't have an issue winning on national television. But this ordinary, locally broadcasted, regular-season matchup should end in win No. 9 for the Vikings.
Final Score: Vikings 13, Seahawks 10
Statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
For more Vikings notes and discussion, find me on Twitter @RobertReidellBT.
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