Texans vs. Bills: Full Houston Week 13 Preview
Defense may not win a championship for Houston this year, but that group's rise from embarrassing disaster to dominating play has saved the Texans season.
On the back of a defense that has held three of their last four opponents to only six points scored, the Texans have won four games in a row and with a 6-5 record, they currently occupy the last playoff spot in the AFC.
They actually control their own destiny at this point; isn't that crazy? If someone had told us after the embarrassing loss to Miami that the Texans would control their own playoff destiny heading into Week 13, we would have put him in a straight jacket.
There's no time to celebrate just yet, though, because a loss to the Buffalo Bills this week would put their chances of earning a wild-card spot in serious jeopardy. They'd still be in decent shape for the AFC South title race, but their odds of earning a wild-card berth would be slowly going the way of the buffalo.
The Texans are already on the wrong side of a tiebreaker with Kansas City, so they can't afford to lose another tiebreaker to the group of teams bunching up around the .500 mark in the AFC.
Contrary to what most believed just a month ago, it now seems like it will take at least nine wins to make the playoffs in the AFC as a wild-card team.
Just look at the remaining schedule for Kansas City and tell me it won't win nine games:
The Raiders could definitely win their game at home this week but after that, the Chiefs will probably be favored to win out.
The Texans will most likely be underdogs against New England and Indianapolis in the coming weeks, so a loss to Buffalo would put the odds against them to reach nine wins, on top of losing a second important tiebreaker to a team also in the race.
At the risk of sounding too cliché, the playoffs start this week for the Texans.
Week 12 Results and Recap
1 of 6
Different week, but the same successful winning formula for the Houston Texans.
The Texans defense completely dominated its opponent for the fourth week in a row and got just enough from a suddenly creative offense to beat a helpless looking New Orleans Saints team.
"Since Week 8, @HoustonTexans rank 1st in @NFL in points allowed (8.8), total yards allowed (250.5) & passing yards allowed (180.5) per game
— Texans PR (@TexansPR) December 2, 2015"
Coming into Week 12, the Saints had averaged 414 total yards, 24 first downs and 25.5 points per game but were held to 268 total yards, 14 first downs and only six points scored by the resurgent Texans defense.
It was only the second game in which Drew Brees had been held without a touchdown pass since the 2009 season and was the first time the Saints offense had been kept out of the end zone since 2005.
J.J. Watt led the defense, like he does every week, with two sacks, two tackles for a loss and eight hits on the quarterback. If you ask Brees, however, he'd probably say he felt the presence of Watt on more than those 14 plays because he seemed to live in the Saints backfield all game long.
On offense, rising star DeAndre Hopkins had his lowest receiving yardage total of the season, but Brian Hoyer spread the ball around and the running game had success.
Nine different players caught at least one pass among Hoyer's 21 completions on his way to the fifth game out of eight played this season with a 100 or better quarterback rating.
Through their first nine games, the Texans only topped the 100-yard mark once, but for the second week in a row, they went over the century mark. Houston rushed for 167 yards against New Orleans with five players rushing for at least 20 yards, including a team-high 77 yards from Alfred Blue.
Overall the team played one of its more complete games of the season, but one area where it could do better this week would be on special teams.
Shane Lechler and Nick Novak both did fine, but the gunners on punt coverage struggled, as both Charles James and Darryl Morris let a couple of punts bounce into the end zone for a touchback that could have been downed inside the 10-yard line.
Those mistakes didn't end up mattering against an overmatched New Orleans team but in a closer game, those plays could be the difference between winning or losing.
News and Notes
2 of 6
The Texans Aren't Worried About The Buffalo Weather
From Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle, the normally frigid weather of Buffalo at this time of the year isn't projected to be that bad when the Texans take on the Bills this week.
"Although the usual expectation for a December trip to upstate New York is an encounter with wintry weather, the forecast is for relatively balmy temperatures.
When the Texans travel to Buffalo to play the Bills on Sunday, they may barely need their winter coats. The forecast is for 49 degrees with zero chance of precipitation.
"
Coach Bill O'Brien said his team is built to play in any type of weather.
"I know that supposedly the forecast is for the temperature to be in the 40s. I remember coaching a game there one year where I think it was 65 mile an hour winds and it wasn’t very fun.
I think we threw the ball 15 times and ran it 50-something times. You never know what the weather’s going to be in Buffalo and our guys, like we said, we try to put a team together that’s built for all kinds of weather, and whatever it is we’ve got to play in it.
"
Most fans would probably feel better about a cold-weather game if the Texans running game had been more consistent, but as the saying goes, defense travels, so the Texans should be fine.
Rex Ryan Calls J.J. Watt The Best Player In The League
It's not uncommon for coaches to go over the top with praise on a conference call before a game, but Rex Ryan isn't that type of coach, and it'd be hard to argue against what he said.
"Rex Ryan didn't think J.J. Watt would make it past Cowboys' 10th overall pick, says he lost a gentleman's bet, Said Rob Ryan wanted him bad
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) December 2, 2015 "
"J.J. Watt on Rex Ryan calling him the best player in NFL: 'Extremely high praise, humbled by it.'
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) December 2, 2015"
This season, the Buffalo Bills as a team have 39 hits on the quarterback with an individual high of five from Mario Williams, Kyle Williams and Corey Graham. Just by himself this season, Watt has 29 hits on the quarterback.
With 13.5 sacks this season, Watt also has more sacks than the entire rosters of both the Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants, and only trails the Bills by 2.5 sacks.
Latest Injury News
3 of 6
Knock on wood, cross your fingers or do whatever else you believe can keep this luck going, but the Texans are actually fairly healthy going into this game against the Buffalo Bills.
With Arian Foster on injured reserve, they're not truly at 100 percent, but other than him and the other guys already on IR, everyone else on the roster is probable or better, with the exception of cornerback A.J. Bouye.
Bouye is a decent role player that the team would like to have available, but it can get by without him.
Against a spread offense that features three or four wide receivers, his role would be more important to its success, but in this matchup against Buffalo, who ranks 29th in pass attempts this season, the health of the Texans' fourth corner isn't vital.
Alfred Blue is also listed on the injury report as being questionable for the game with a back injury, but in the opinion of many—including mine—Jonathan Grimes is the better running back anyway, so Blue being limited might actually force the hand of Bill O'Brien in a positive way.
J.J. Watt didn't practice on Wednesday, but don't be alarmed, because Coach O'Brien said after practice that the veteran just sat out to get a breather during a long season and that there were no injury concerns with the Texans' biggest star player.
"'Just a day off' for J.J. Watt, says Bill O'Brien
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) December 2, 2015 "
".@HoustonTexans Wednesday Practice Report (12/2): pic.twitter.com/rzvZK5A1Te
— Texans PR (@TexansPR) December 2, 2015"
Source: Pro Football Reference
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Key Matchups
4 of 6
Covering That Other Former Clemson Receiver
He's missed three games and Buffalo has one of the more run-heavy offenses in the league, so his numbers aren't spectacular, but Sammy Watkins is a dangerous wide receiver and is capable of making corners look foolish at times.
DeAndre Hopkins' former teammate at Clemson torched the Kansas City Chiefs last week for six receptions, 158 yards and two touchdowns.
His quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, may not be regarded as a polished passer by most, but he has shown an ability to beat teams deep. Of Taylor's 14 touchdown passes this season, 10 have been on passes 20 yards or deeper.
Taylor isn't likely to pick you apart on the short to medium routes, but if you give him a one-on-one matchup with Watkins on the outside, he will take a shot.
In fact, Taylor has a negative grade from Pro Football Focus on passes in all directions behind the line of scrimmage and up to nine yards downfield, while his highest grade from the site comes on passes over 20 yards to the right side of the field.
Watkins ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at the 2014 NFL combine and is able to get in and out of his breaks quicker than most receivers in the league, so keeping everything in front and not giving up bombs to Watkins will be a difficult task.
Stopping LeSean McCoy
The Bills have one of the best 1-2 combinations in the league at running back when both LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams are healthy at the same time, but they've missed five combined games and Williams is questionable this week, so good health hasn't been on their side.
Even if the Texans only have to face McCoy, stopping him will still be difficult.
From Pro Football Focus, McCoy ranks seventh in the league in breakaway percentage—the percentage of yards that come from runs of 15 yards or more—so he's a constant home run threat. McCoy ranked seventh in the same stat last year as well.
The Texans gave up several long runs to Lamar Miller and Devonta Freeman earlier in the year but have been better in that area recently.
McCoy is a dangerous runner with very shifty moves, but perhaps the bigger threat he'll pose to the Texans is his ability as a receiver on screen passes. The Texans played the screen very well against New Orleans, but it has been a big problem at times this season.
Texans X-Factor of the Week
5 of 6
Texans X-Factor Of The Week: DeAndre Hopkins
This matchup against the Buffalo Bills is very similar to what they faced a couple of weeks ago against the New York Jets.
Like the Jets, the Bills have been better against the run than the pass on defense this year and have some very talented cornerbacks.
The Bills rank just 23rd in passing yards allowed despite the obvious skill of Ronald Darby and Stephon Gilmore, but perhaps that number is inflated a bit because their opponents often focus on passing after being unable to run the ball efficiently.
Out of 113 eligible corners, both Darby and Gilmore rank inside the top 30 for opponent quarterback rating, inside the top 20 for completion percentage against and inside the top five for passes defensed this season.
Until last week, the rookie Darby had not given up more than 65 yards or a touchdown this season but got worked by Jeremy Maclin last week and allowed 83 yards and two touchdowns, and Alex Smith had a 150.6 QB rating throwing against him.
Can Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins find similar success?
The Texans have topped the century mark in rushing yards two weeks in a row, but obviously their running game has not been very consistent or efficient this season.
If they're not able to run the ball well, can Hopkins beat the coverage of Darby or Gilmore? Brandon Browner, who had been the worst corner in the league, surprisingly held Hopkins to a season low in receiving yards last week, so he needs a big bounce-back performance.
Even if the Texans are able to run the ball a little bit, getting 167 yards on the ground again seems unlikely, so they'll need their top offensive star to win his matchup and create big plays in the passing game.
Prediction: Texans 17, Bills 13
6 of 6
The weather is predicted to be reasonably nice, so the elements shouldn't play a big factor, but this game will still probably be a low-scoring contest, with the winner determined by which defense is able to make more big plays.
Houston has held three of its last four opponents to less than two touchdowns, while the Bills have only held an opponent to less than two touchdowns once over the entire season, so the Texans seem to have the defense more capable of making big plays to win this game.
The Bills rank 27th in the percentage of dropbacks that have ended in a sack this season—sack percentage—while the Texans rank seventh in the opposite stat of the percentage of dropbacks they've faced that have ended with a sack this year.
The Texans pass rush against the pass protection of the Bills is a matchup of strength on weakness.
Buffalo's defense ranks 30th in that same stat, and its leader in sacks this season has just three for the year.
With Watt and Hopkins, the Texans have the two best players in this game, and they'll likely make the difference with just enough big plays between them to win the game.
Prediction: Texans 17, Bills 13
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
