Kawhi Leonard's Evolution Just Won't Stop
It's a good thing Kawhi Leonard just keeps getting better. Someday, the historically successful San Antonio Spurs might just need another superstar leader.
Surprisingly, that's not the case just yet—even if the 24-year-old Leonard already is the Spurs' best player—which makes his ongoing evolution exactly the kind of luxury that championship franchises like this always seem to enjoy.
See, the Spurs still have a transcendent player in Tim Duncan who, despite approaching age 40, rates as the NBA's most valuable defender this season, per ESPN's Real Plus-Minus rating. And they still have two more stalwarts in Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili who remain good enough and experienced enough to engineer wins despite their own advancing age (33 and 38, respectively).
They still have Gregg Popovich pushing the right buttons. They still have an unparalleled culture.
They even have the 30-year-old LaMarcus Aldridge, who came billed as part of the new era but who, given the fact he's six years older than Leonard, really looks more like a bridge between this one and the next.
The version of Leonard the Spurs have now ranks, almost inarguably, among the league's top 10 players, and he's arrived at that status through gradual, steady growth—growth that shows no signs of relenting.
How He's Evolved
By now, everyone knows the basic arc of Leonard's improvement from a guy who couldn't do much with the ball and shot 25 percent from the much shorter college three-point line to a multifaceted offensive dynamo who controls more of San Antonio's possessions than anyone else.
What's so strange about Leonard's offensive climb is that a lot of the numbers we'd normally use to chart changes conceal more than they reveal. Take his shooting profile as an example. The areas from which Leonard attempts his shots have actually trended toward less efficient zones, per Basketball-Reference.com.
| 2011-12 | 9.2 | 9.4 |
| 2012-13 | 9.3 | 12.5 |
| 2013-14 | 11.9 | 14.7 |
| 2014-15 | 18.7 | 18.7 |
| 2015-16 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
A guy who took mostly threes and layups early on is now shooting double the number of mid-range jumpers as he did in his rookie season. He's never taken a larger percentage of shots from 10-16 feet or 16-23 feet than he has so far in 2015-16, narrowly exceeding the career highs he set last year.
That's weird, right? Certainly not a condemnation, as Leonard still gets to the hoop a ton and takes nearly a quarter of his shots from beyond the arc, but still strange.
As is the case for almost everything related to Leonard's improvement, the changes are tied to dogged work. And the reason Leonard is taking more shots from in-between areas these days is because he's added actual offensive moves to his game—which, if you studied him as a younger prospect, simply didn't exist.
He can get shots from anywhere now.
Per Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News:
"Visitors to the Spurs practice gym on any given day during Leonard's second, third or fourth seasons might have caught him working late with [Spurs player development coach Chad Forcier] on a bevy of new offensive moves.
A jab step. A post-up. A jump-hook. A fadeaway baseline jumper.
They were all bits of the arsenal Leonard had yet to unveil in an NBA game.
"
In addition to adding all those previously nonexistent in-between moves, Leonard quietly improved his shooting efficiency from high-value areas. Now, his accuracy rates at the rim and from three border on the absurd, per Basketball-Reference.com:
This is the real story of Leonard's offensive emergence. He's sustaining or improving (depending on the area) his scoring efficiency while substantially increasing his usage.
It's not supposed to work that way, but it has for Leonard.
Want to know the three players with usage rates above 25 percent and effective field-goal percentages above 57 percent this season? Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Leonard.
Any guesses as to how many of those guys have also won Defensive Player of the Year?
Yep, just one: Leonard.
Where's This Heading?
Understandably, Popovich is optimistic about Leonard's trajectory, per the San Antonio Express-News' Jeff McDonald:
"It's about how good a player do you want to be? He has the ability to do what a Michael Jordan did at both ends. I don't mean he's Michael Jordan, but Michael played both ends of the floor. Kobe does the same thing, when he so desires. You think about the best players in the league, they're not two-way players. He wants to do that, and he stays after it every day.
"
Sure, Pop immediately equivocated. Yes, he pivoted from calling Leonard the next Michael Jordan to saying he's got the potential to be like Jordan in a more general way. Note, too, that Kobe Bryant's name shows up (we'll charitably assume Pop meant a younger Kobe).
He didn't use Trevor Ariza as his source of comparison. He didn't opt for, say, Arron Afflalo or any of the vast horde of far-from-a-star two-way players he could have mentioned.
He invoked Jordan's name, and we shouldn't overlook the fact it came to mind when Popovich was searching for ways to guess at Leonard's potential. If we know one thing about Pop, it's he's not the smoke-blowing type. He's careful about what he says, particularly when it comes to praising players.
Leonard will not be Jordan, but Popovich believes his very best player will only get better.
Why wouldn't he? He's watched nothing but steady improvement for five years.
The Right Man for the Time
Individual skill and growth aside, Leonard is poised to capitalize on the NBA's strategic trends. He's an ideal weapon in a league that is shrinking, prizing versatility more than ever and emphasizing players who can guard multiple positions.
Leonard may be the best on-ball defender in the league against points guards, shooting guards and small forwards, but he's also perfectly adept at shutting down many power forwards. As players at that position increasingly resemble oversized wings, they'll play right into Leonard's massive, vice-like hands.
There's not a stretch 4 on the planet Leonard can't suffocate on defense and blow by on offense.
It's as if the NBA is molding itself into something Leonard is specifically designed to dominate.
The final challenge will be leading without the Duncan-Parker-Ginobili safety net. That's the only thing Leonard hasn't done yet, and he won't get a chance to try until next season at the earliest. But we've already seen him stand above his older teammates, winning a Finals MVP award just two seasons ago.
And the Spurs have acted so far like a team that is totally comfortable with (and even excited about) Leonard leading their next dynastic period.
If you'd like to ignore the data, ditch the eye test and question the judgment of an organization that hasn't made a false step in two decades, go right ahead. The rest of us will be over here watching Leonard as he evolves into San Antonio's next great success.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and accurate through games played Nov. 26.
Follow @gt_hughes on Twitter.
.jpg?w=600 "NFL Not Investigating Mike Vrabel")
