5 Matchups the Indianapolis Colts Must Win Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Indianapolis Colts got their second consecutive win last week, a 24-21 comeback over the sliding Atlanta Falcons. 

Their Week 12 opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are heading the opposite way. While Atlanta had lost three of four heading into their matchup with Indianapolis, the Buccaneers are winners of two straight, coming off an impressive 45-17 demolition of the Philadelphia Eagles. 

While the Buccaneers may have looked like a softer opponent a month ago, Week 12 is now a matchup of two 5-5 teams, and ones that may actually be fairly well-matched, especially with Andrew Luck on the bench with an injury. 

In order to continue their winning streak, the Colts will need to take advantage of their "plus" matchups. Looking ahead to a foe the team hasn't seen since 2011, how can the Colts best create advantages Sunday while avoiding getting killed by Tampa Bay's premier players? 

Matt Hasselbeck vs. Kwon Alexander

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Against the Falcons, the Colts needed a lot of help for Matt Hasselbeck in order to pull off the win.

The veteran quarterback got his third victory of the season, but his play was nowhere near the level of his last showing, and the Colts nearly lost because of it. With Atlanta crowding the line of scrimmage, the run game suffered and Hasselbeck's efficiency was severely hampered because of it. 

With Tampa Bay likely to employ a similar strategy, there will be more of a burden on Hasselbeck to make plays in the passing game, particularly down the middle of the field. 

With Lovie Smith at the helm, the Buccaneers run a version of the Tampa 2 defense, which places a great deal of stress on the middle linebacker to drop back deep into the middle of the field and fill the void between two deep safeties. While Tampa Bay has run a less strict version of the Tampa 2 this year, including more single-high looks, there will still be opportunities for Indianapolis to make plays down the field. 

Rookie middle linebacker Kwon Alexander has had a rough year, currently ranking dead last among Pro Football Focus' inside linebacker grades. Alexander is mobile and can make plays in the passing game, but has often been washed out against the run. With the Buccaneers likely being focused on stuffing the run, especially against the Colts' power sets, Hasselbeck needs to be aware of when he can take advantage down the seam with play action and when to stick with the run. 

If Hasselbeck has a better game than last week, there's a good chance the Colts offense can have a big day against the Buccaneers' inconsistent defense.

T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief vs. Sterling Moore and Jude Adjei-Barimah

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The Colts wide receivers were disappointing in last week's win over the Falcons, totaling just 95 yards between T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Andre Johnson and Griff Whalen against a shaky Atlanta pass defense. 

Against the Buccaneers, that can't happen. 

This is true for the whole receiving corps, but especially for Hilton and Moncrief, who have to carry the Colts passing offense due to rough seasons from Johnson and the tight ends. Aside from a few key first downs against Atlanta, both receivers were very quiet, and while Hasselbeck's inability to throw the ball downfield was a big part of that, the Colts simply need more from their receivers. 

Fortunately, Tampa Bay should give them that opportunity. 

The Buccaneers rank 19th in the league against No. 1 receivers and 30th in the league against No. 2 receivers, per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, making them the worst secondary the Colts have faced in weeks. 

Tampa Bay has rotated several starting cornerbacks in and out of the lineup, but Moncrief and Hilton will likely face Sterling Moore and Jude Adjei-Barimah on Sunday, hardly an intimidating pair. The duo has been playing acceptably in recent weeks, but have also faced Matt Cassel and Mark Sanchez at quarterback. 

Moncrief and Hilton present the most speed the duo has had to face in weeks, and if Hasselbeck can hit them, the Colts could have opportunities for big plays on the outside.

Joe Reitz vs. William Gholston

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The Colts offensive line has quietly been outperforming expectations this season, even if the narrative surrounding Andrew Luck's injuries would have you think otherwise. 

Ranked 13th in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking efficiency since changes were made in Week 3, the Colts found a mixture that worked with Joe Reitz on the right side and Jack Mewhort inside at guard, with Hugh Thornton replacing Todd Herremans at right tackle. 

But Anthony Castonzo's knee sprain clouds the picture a bit. 

The Colts will have to scramble to make up for their top offensive lineman's absence, but fortunately they do have the ability to move Reitz over to left tackle. While Reitz is a better guard than tackle, he's played brilliantly for Indianapolis at right tackle this year, and the team will need him to continue his surprisingly stout play on the left side while Castonzo heals. 

Reitz had one of Pro Football Focus' top pass-blocking performances for a tackle in Week 11, and will need another performance like that in Week 12. He'll likely be going up against Tampa Bay defensive end William Gholston, who has had a stout year in both pass and run situations. 

With a need to establish the run game as well as account for a few more deep drops and downfield throws, Reitz holding his own on the left side will be huge for Indianapolis' chances. The Buccaneers' only redeeming quality on defense is the defensive line, so as long as they aren't wreaking havoc, the Colts should be able to move the ball. 

Jerrell Freeman and D'Qwell Jackson vs. Doug Martin and Charles Sims

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While the Colts linebackers were supposed to be the team's biggest defensive weakness going into this season, both D'Qwell Jackson and Jerrell Freeman have been playing particularly well lately. 

The two linebackers were both among Pro Football Focus' top ILB performers of Week 11, and they'll need to be again on Sunday against Doug Martin and Charles Sims. 

Last week, the Colts were helped out severely by Devonta Freeman's injury in the first quarter. Freeman had touched the ball just three times before his injury, but had already racked up 43 yards. While it's never good to see a player get hurt, the reality is that it gave the Colts a big advantage. 

The likelihood of that happening again is not high, so the Colts will need exceptionally good play from their linebackers to keep the Buccaneers' dangerous duo limited. 

Both Martin and Sims are dangerous and big-play risks, albeit in different areas. Martin is ranked ninth in rushing DYAR this year, per Football Outsiders, while Sims is ranked seventh in receiving DYAR among running backs.

No running back has more rushes of 20-plus yards this season than Martin, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. Unfortunately, the Colts have allowed nine such plays this season, tied for the third-most of any team in the league. Freeman and Jackson's ability to sift through traffic and make plays at the point of attack will be a big factor in whether or not the Buccaneers offense goes off. 

Last week, Martin went off with 235 rushing yards against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Colts can't allow something like that to happen again.

Greg Toler vs. Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson

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Though Vontae Davis has had his ups and downs this season, he's still the Colts' best corner by a mile, and the team will generally trust him in matching up with any receiver. Against the Buccaneers' physical Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, Davis should be able to hold his own. 

But the other side is more questionable. Greg Toler has been beat far too often this season, allowing over 90 yards per game in the six games since returning from injury, per Pro Football Focus. He's allowed gains of 35 yards or more in five of those six games. 

The Buccaneers' ability to toss it deep to Evans and Jackson is a huge part of their offense, and Toler is the most vulnerable in that regard. 

With Jackson back healthy in Tampa Bay now, Davis probably won't be shadowing Mike Evans, so Toler will likely face both Evans and Jackson throughout the day. No matter who he's matching up with, he'll need to limit the big plays.

Though Jameis Winston has been improving tremendously, he's still a rookie, and one who is prone to turnovers if he's forced to drive down the field in small chunks. The Colts have to make him impatient, and limiting the big plays will be goal No. 1.