Colts vs. Falcons: What's the Game Plan for Indianapolis?

At one point this season, beating the Atlanta Falcons seemed like one of the toughest tasks in the league. They were 5-0 and flying high under new head coach Dan Quinn, with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones both having outstanding seasons.

But in their last four contests, the Falcons' fortunes have shifted. Losing three of its last four, with the only win a 10-7 snoozer against the hapless Tennessee Titans, Atlanta has fallen off heading into its home matchup with the Indianapolis Colts.

This is great news for the Indianapolis Colts, who are looking to build off their surprise victory against the Denver Broncos two weeks ago while simultaneously holding off pushes from division rivals Houston and Jacksonville.

In a season that has largely been a disappointment for Indianapolis, a win over the Falcons to keep the team on top of the division for another week heading into the home stretch could be vital. But can the Colts pull it off against one of the league’s best passing attacks?

Let’s take a look at what the Colts need to do to pull off the upset against Atlanta and move to .500 on the season.

Offensive Game Plan

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The desire with Andrew Luck out might be to give Frank Gore an increased workload and hope that Matt Hasselbeck can do just enough to eke out a victory against the Falcons, but the Colts desperately need to resist that urge.

The Atlanta defense is ranked No. 3 in the league in rushing yards per game and fourth in yards allowed per carry. Gore has been pretty good in games against high-ranking run defenses this year, but the way to beat the Falcons isn’t on the ground, it’s through the air.

He isn’t Luck by any stretch, but Hasselbeck is one of the league’s best backup quarterbacks—and would probably start for a number of teams. He is more than capable of putting up huge numbers against an Atlanta defense that ranks No. 19 in passing yards allowed per game.

There isn’t as much fear that Hasselbeck will turn the ball over and give the Falcons extra opportunities either; the veteran quarterback has yet to record an interception this season in two previous starts.

It is a safe bet that the Falcons are going to score their fair share of points against a porous Colts secondary, so letting Hasselbeck take the reins of the offense early on could prevent the team from falling in an early hole and change the entire outlook of the game. Gore should get his touches, but a heavy increase would be playing right into Atlanta’s hands.

Defensive Game Plan

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The strength of both teams is clearly on the offensive side of the ball, while both defenses have been called upon to do just enough to get the win.

Unfortunately for the Colts, the Falcons have been better on both sides of the ball, and their offense is one of the best in the NFL: top five in passing yards per game, top 10 in points per game and in the top half of the league in rushing yards per game. Slowing down Atlanta’s offense is easier said than done.

No one has been able to find a way to shut down Jones yet this year, and the Colts likely aren’t up to the task with one of the worst secondaries in the league. Lining up Vontae Davis on Jones is the only logical step for Indianapolis, but even that might not be enough.

But the real problem isn’t going to be stopping Ryan from getting the ball to Jones—at this point that is more like a foregone conclusion—but making sure the running game doesn’t get going.

Devonta Freeman has been frustratingly inconsistent this season, with four games of more than 100 yards rushing and three with 25 or less. Indianapolis needs to focus on making sure he doesn’t explode for a big game. Long story short, the Colts desperately need D’Qwell Jackson to be healthy for Sunday’s game.

Key Matchups and Players

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LB D’Qwell Jackson

Despite poor defensive numbers all season, Indianapolis surprisingly has a pair of players who are near the top of the league in significant statistics. Unfortunately for the Colts, both of them are also in doubt for Sunday’s game after missing practice this week.

But while the secondary will miss Mike Adams' presence as the league leader in interceptions, the real player the Colts need to be healthy is Jackson, who ranks second in the NFL with 93 tackles this season.

Keeping Freeman in check is hugely important for the Colts' chances of success, and without Jackson that could be next to impossible. He is a huge presence defensively for Indianapolis and will be missed if he can’t go.

WR Donte Moncrief

Much like Jones vs. Davis, there is a stellar matchup on the other side of the ball, with T.Y. Hilton and Desmond Trufant going head-to-head. But if the Colts are going to air the ball out against Atlanta, they are going to need a number of receivers to step up, which is where Donte Moncrief comes in.

A case could be made for Andre Johnson filling into this slot, but Moncrief has had the better season and was close to establishing himself early in the season as a top-tier receiver before a recent drop-off in form. The talent is there, though, and Moncrief did show nice chemistry with Hasselbeck in the win against Jacksonville with nine catches for 75 yards.

Hilton will still be the focal point of the passing game, but if Moncrief can have a decent game—or Johnson, for that matter—the Colts will benefit.

RB Frank Gore

While the Colts need to resist the urge to run Gore into the ground, that doesn’t mean he isn’t a vital part of the game against the Falcons.

While he still hasn’t broken the 100-yard barrier this season, the veteran running back has been the most consistent player for Indianapolis, and the team tends to find more success when he is playing better.

Gore has also put together some of his best games against the league’s best rush defenses, averaging 72.7 yards per game against the Broncos, Patriots and Jets, and should still see a decent amount of touches against the Falcons. What he does with them might very well decide the final outcome.

CB Vontae Davis

Jones is having a career year for the Atlanta Falcons this season and really hasn’t been stopped with the exception of an odd game against the Texans that got out of hand early. But looking at the schedule for Atlanta, it is clear he hasn’t faced anyone quite up to the level of Davis, with perhaps the exception of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

He hasn’t been entirely consistent this season, but on his best day Davis can cover anyone in the league. If he can put in a performance like he did against Sammy Watkins in the season opener, the Colts will be in a much better position to pull off the upset.

Prediction

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The Colts don’t face nearly the uphill battle they did against the Carolina Panthers or Denver Broncos—both games they played well in—but the Atlanta Falcons are no pushover and are designed to give Indianapolis fits.

With one of the league’s best aerial attacks, powered by the quarterback-wide receiver duo of Ryan and Jones, Atlanta is the exact type of team to take advantage of the Colts' weaknesses. Even if the secondary and Davis play their best game of the year, stopping the Falcons could be difficult.

An improved defense under Quinn as well could pose problems for Indianapolis, who would usually lean more on Gore with no Luck in the lineup but can’t because of the Falcons' top-tier run defense.

Everything is pointing toward a high-scoring affair, especially if Hasselbeck plays well and is capable of putting up big numbers through the air, but without Luck it is hard to imagine a shootout going in Indianapolis' favor.

It should be close throughout, but Ryan and the Falcons do enough to send the Colts home with another disappointing loss and a number of questions moving forward.

Prediction: Falcons 31, Colts 28