Packers vs. Vikings: What's the Game Plan for Minnesota?
The Minnesota Vikings (7-2) are set to host the Green Bay Packers (6-3) at TCF Bank Stadium on Sunday in a critical rivalry matchup with clear divisional implications.
Minnesota enters Week 11 sitting atop the NFC North with a one-game advantage over Green Bay. It is an unfamiliar position for the Vikings, as they have not held sole possession of the division's top spot 10 weeks into the season since the Brett Favre-led 2009 campaign.
In addition to the bragging rights Vikings fans have received from their team's accomplishments, leading the division this late in the season also carries some inherent, under-the-radar perks. Most importantly, Minnesota now controls its own destiny with seven games left to play.
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The Vikings no longer require help from other teams to clinch their first division title in over half a decade. Minnesota simply needs to just go out and take care of their own business, beginning with their immediate test on Sunday.
Claiming victory over the Packers would enhance the Vikings' divisional lead by another game while also sending their greatest competitor reeling to a fourth-consecutive loss. Suffering defeat, on the other hand, would put Green Bay right back into the driver's seat, allowing it to take control of Minnesota's fate once again.
Multiple teams throughout the course of the season have given the Vikings examples on how to best the Packers on both sides of the football; it's up to Mike Zimmer and Norv Turner to apply these rough outlines to their team's winning formula, designing game plans to keep the Vikings in control of their own destiny.
Offensive Game Plan
Teddy Bridgewater has been rock solid at quarterback, rookie wide receiver Stefon Diggs has already proven to be an extremely gifted and versatile playmaker and tight end Kyle Rudolph has been a red-zone mismatch (unless he is wide open).
Furthermore, Mike Wallace, Jarius Wright, Cordarrelle Patterson, Rhett Ellison and MyCole Pruitt all provide niche strengths that allow Turner to attack defenses in a variety of different ways.
But there is one player who stands alone as the Vikings' greatest offensive weapon—veteran running back Adrian Peterson. Stopping him is priority No. 1 for every opposing defense, as he is still arguably the best player at his position despite reaching the dreaded age of 30 this past offseason.
Peterson has been and will continue to be the focal point of Minnesota's offense with play calls and formations tailored to his strengths. As the team's quarterback, Bridgewater maintains a significant role as well, but his expectations are based more around efficiency, consistency and rising to the occasions during specific situations (third-and-long and in the two-minute drill, for example).
Rushing for a high yardage total is obviously important, but receiving consistent positive carries from Peterson helps the Vikings in multiple other ways as well:
- Allows Minnesota to dictate the flow of the game
- Rushing plays tend to average a low yards per attempt, which, in theory, forces Green Bay's defense to be on the field longer—effectively giving Minnesota an advantage in the stamina battle.
- Most importantly, controlling the clock and sustaining long drives keeps Aaron Rodgers off the field and minimizes the number of opportunities for Green Bay's greatest weapon.
Against the Oakland Raiders during Week 10, the Vikings employed an offensive game plan based around Peterson and these qualities inherent to a consistent running game. The Vikings finished with a 33:22 run-to-pass ratio, mixing in a variety of different rush styles and utilizing multiple different players.
| Play Call | Attempts |
| Power-O | 11 |
| Inside Zone | 8 |
| Outside Zone | 2 |
| HB Toss | 4 |
| Jet Sweep | 2 |
| Singleback Dive | 1 |
| I-Formation Dive | 3 |
| Quarterback Scramble | 2 |
| Total | 33 |
Minnesota also employed a very safe passing approach, simply asking Bridgewater to be careful with the football and complete short, quick pass attempts to keep the offense on the field.
| Pass Type | Attempts |
| Short | 9 |
| Intermediate | 3 |
| Deep | 2 |
| Screen | 5 |
| Thrown Away | 3 |
| Total | 22 |
This game plan also differed in formational usage, as Turner had Bridgewater line up under center much more often than he had in previous weeks.
| Alignment | Official Plays |
| Under Center | 40 |
| Shotgun | 19 |
| Pistol | 1 |
| Total | 60 |
By comparison, Bridgewater threw 25 of his 30 pass attempts against the Chicago Bears out of the shotgun formation during Week 8.
This offensive game plan, centered around keeping Derek Carr and the Raiders' high-powered offense off the field, was extremely effective. The Vikings' ability to control time of possession with long drives complemented its defense as well, as the extra rest certainly showed up late in the game when Minnesota's defense did not allow a single point during the second half.
Given that Green Bay is similar to Oakland in that it relies heavily on its quarterback to win football games, a similar offensive game plan—with slight changes to fit the the tendencies of the Packers defense—will likely be utilized this weekend.
As noted by the chart above, Minnesota's rushing attack frequently operates in a man-blocking, Power-O formation—play calling that had been a staple of the Peterson-led offense well before Turner arrived.
In this specific alignment, fullback Zach Line initially sets up shop on the outside. Moments before Bridgewater takes the snap, he motions into the backfield to form a typical power set.
Left guard Brandon Fusco is asked to wrap around immediately after the ball is snapped in order to join Line as a lead-blocker for Peterson. Left tackle Matt Kalil and center Joe Berger seal the backside, setting up in the gaps to their left. Right guard Mike Harris and right tackle T.J. Clemmings double-team the nose tackle while Rudolph and Wallace block the men in front of them.
The blocks set up nicely for Peterson, and he breaks through the middle of the line for a 15-yard gain early in the fourth quarter. Turner will run power out of a number of different alignments with a variety of personnel, but the general concept remains the same.
In addition to man-blocking run plays, Minnesota also employs zone-blocking schemes as well. The Vikings leaned heavily on this style of play during the second half against Oakland, with all eight inside zone rush attempts coming during the game's final two quarters.
The most memorable of these Peterson carries came on the team's last offensive play of the afternoon—an 80-yard touchdown to seal the victory.
After receiving the handoff, Peterson attempts to run the ball inside between the B gap to the left of Fusco, but the play-side was blocked off. As a result, he attempted to find a hole within the backside alley, finding himself face-to-face with defensive back Neiko Thorpe.
Peterson freezes Thorpe with some fancy footwork, convincing the Oakland defender that he is going to run the ball to the outside of the formation.
With Thorpe cheating outside, Peterson decisively makes a move toward his inside shoulder. Being off-balanced, all Oakland's last line of defense can do is attempt an arm tackle, which No. 28 breaks with relative ease before taking off to the end zone with his trademark breakaway speed.
Simply, the Vikings offense will also be playing defense against the Packers this weekend.
Green Bay's defense, which has allowed 400-plus total yards against four separate teams, is not an overly threatening unit. Establishing the ground game should not be a major issue for the league's leading rusher.
Peterson's success will be a definitive key to Minnesota putting a high number of points on the board. If the running game is executed with the same consistency against Green Bay as it was in Oakland, the Packers will have a minimal number of opportunities to match the Vikings score-for-score.
Bridgewater will still need to put together an efficient passing performance to keep No. 12 off the field, however, but he will have the benefit of playing at home this week.
As shown in the screen shot above, the noise in Oakland last weekend affected the play of at least one Vikings offensive lineman—T.J. Clemmings. Having the snap count in his favor will be a major advantage this Sunday, as this should eliminate all timing issues.
These little details will only help Bridgewater be more consistent, and combined with another strong rushing performance, the Vikings offense may be poised for a big outing against a subpar Packers defense.
Defensive Game Plan
After losing to the Packers twice in 2014, it should be assumed that Zimmer will be well-prepared to stop Rodgers and Co. this weekend. He will combat a currently stagnant offense with a similarly skilled personnel group and formula to what the Denver Broncos utilized when they held Rodgers under 100 passing yards to begin the Packers' current three-game losing streak.
Green Bay has struggled recently, but there was a time (earlier this year) when this offense was dynamic. One of the biggest reasons for this historical success was wide receiver screens designed to accumulate massive yards after the catch totals.
In the following instance, however, the Packers only need two yards after the catch. Green Bay has Ty Montgomery lined up on the outside to the right of the formation, with James Jones being his mirror image. Randall Cobb, the focal point of this particular play, is lined up in the slot.
He runs a flat with Montgomery crossing in front of him with a quick slant. On the other side of the field, Jones runs a shallow cross in the event that the screen is sniffed out.
By moving in front of Cobb, Montgomery frees the Packers slot receiver, giving Rodgers a split second to make the throw before Kansas City's defensive backs adjust in coverage.
Per his standard, the Green Bay signal-caller delivers a perfect ball, allowing Cobb an opportunity to grind out the remaining yardage to put six points on the board. The Chiefs recovered quickly and made the play close, but Cobb ultimately makes his way past the goal line.
This has been a very successful design for the Packers in recent years, but the Broncos were able to blow up these screen plays with a combination of man coverage and effective tackling—skills that Zimmer preaches and builds his defense around.
Furthermore, Minnesota may have the best possible weapon for stopping a screen-savvy player like Cobb in Captain Munnerlyn. He has been an absolute wrecking ball against this genre of passing plays during the 2015 season, and he should be able to find success against the Packers as well.
As shown by the following screen shots, Munnerlyn is a relentless tackler who plays far bigger than his size—something that won't even be a factor in coverage against the 5'10", 192-pound Cobb.
Munnerlyn, attempting to tackle the much larger Mychal Rivera, overpursues his target, putting himself in an unfavorable position. However, he refuses to give up on the play despite being nearly horizontal with the ground.
The Vikings slot cornerback grabs a hold of Rivera's leg, stopping the tight end in his tracks until another Minnesota defender can assist on the tackle. It is this type of relentless defensive play and team-oriented tackling that will give Minnesota a strong chance to slow down Green Bay's dangerous variety of screen passes.
However, Minnesota will also need to cover downfield routes to slow down a Rodgers-led offense. Denver outlined the best possible way to do this, and the Vikings have the necessary personnel to replicate its defensive performance.
Against the Packers in Week 8, the Broncos dropped into pass coverage a total of 27 times. Green Bay utilized a wide range of formations, personnel and alignments, but Denver rarely budged on its defensive game plan, setting up in man coverage on 23 of these plays.
Following an entire half of frustration, the Packers attempted to force Denver into a zone defense by emptying their backfield.
Having a surplus of above-average defensive backs, however, the Broncos did not budge much. Denver dropped a single safety into deep coverage, placed a pair of linebackers in the middle of the field to defend against underneath routes and maintained its man coverage with three terrific cover cornerbacks in Chris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby.
On this occasion, the coverage held long enough for the Broncos to earn a sack. This coverage consistency combined with arguably the best pass rush in the NFL allowed Denver to manhandle Green Bay from start to finish.
Coincidentally, the Vikings have the necessary defensive back depth and a similarly disruptive pass rush to emulate this performance. Xavier Rhodes, Terence Newman and Munnerlyn all specialize in press-man coverage, a significant advantage given the separation issues that Cobb, Jones and Davante Adams all currently face.
Minnesota also rosters the best possible safety to play single-high with the criminally under-appreciated Harrison Smith. The multi-dimensional Smith excels when given free reign in zone coverage, becoming a dangerous playmaker that all opposing offenses keep a close eye on.
The UCLA combo of Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks make up an extremely athletic linebacker duo with the skill set to succeed in zone coverage. Even if one does make a coverage error, both are capable tacklers and fast enough to make up ground quickly.
Finally, the Vikings' defensive front-four headed by Linval Joseph and Everson Griffen has terrorized opposing offenses in recent weeks and should be able to yield similar results this Sunday.
As a whole, this nickel defense is designed to take advantage of the Packers' current offensive issues. Rodgers is an outstanding quarterback, but it's pretty hard to complete passes when nobody is open.
If Green Bay's pass-catchers haven't resolved their beef with press coverage by Sunday, look for Minnesota's defense to give Rodgers deja vu of Week 8.
Prediction
Seemingly every week Minnesota is asked to prove itself to doubters, and it has done just that for over a month's worth of games now.
Outside of Rodgers, there currently is not a single reason to be afraid of this Packers team. The running game is nonexistent, the receivers are sloppy and very few consider tight end Richard Rodgers a true threat.
Green Bay's defense is also extremely shaky, as only Mike Daniels, Clay Matthews and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix have been consistently solid throughout the entire year. Damarious Randall has shown he is a capable defender, but neither he nor Sam Shields are dangerous enough to throw away from.
In summary, the Packers offense is one-dimensional, and their defense is among the bottom third in the NFL—and assistant coach Tom Clements' poor offensive play calling is not helping either.
Minnesota, on the other hand, is thriving in just about every way possible. The Vikings defense is getting pressure with consistency, creating turnovers and tackling as efficiently as any team in the league. Peterson is beginning to look more like the 2012 version of himself than the rusty, over-the-hill running back many claimed he was following a disastrous (team) performance against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1.
The only knock that anyone can find on this team appears to be Bridgewater—and he is not even an issue unless he is your fantasy football quarterback. He has driven the Vikings down the field in the face of certain doom against the Chicago Bears and put together arguably the best performance of any quarterback against the Denver Broncos top-notch defense this season back in Week 4—27-of-41 (65.9 percent), 269 passing yards and one touchdown.
This team continues to prove every week how foolish and stubborn non-believers are being, and the Vikings will rise to the occasion once again this Sunday.
Go ahead, say Minnesota can't beat Green Bay; Mike Zimmer loves receiving new material for his motivational pegboard.
Final Score: Vikings 30, Packers 20
Statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
Want to talk more Vikings football? Find me on Twitter @RobertReidellBT.
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