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NBA Draft 2016: Ranking the Top 6 Favorites to Be No. 1 Pick

Jonathan WassermanNov 19, 2015

There are six prospects this year who could challenge for the No. 1 spot on NBA draft boards. And to no surprise, they're all freshmen, except for an 18-year-old international standout.

Recent history suggests no one position has an advantage. The past five drafts have seen a point guard (Kyrie Irving), a power forward (Anthony Davis), a combo forward (Anthony Bennett), a wing (Andrew Wiggins) and a center (Karl-Anthony Towns) go first.

Each of the following players has flashed glimpses of future star potential. I ranked their chances of successfully selling the eventually lottery-winning general manager.

Rankings were based on the perceived upside the prospects offer and where they are in their development, as well as the overall risk versus reward they seemingly present.

6. Jamal Murray (Kentucky, PG/SG)

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In the event the other elite prospects struggle, Jamal Murray, who's bound to put up consistent production at Kentucky, could potentially earn consideration from the general manager picking first. He might also need a team such as the Philadelphia 76ers—who are missing quality guard play—to win the lottery.

Either way, Murray's 6'5", 207-pound size, deceptive athleticism and spectacular skill level are highly convincing.

With his 2-guard physical tools and a dangerous three-point stroke, coaches can slide Murray to the wing or let him run the offense at the point, where he's a nightmare in ball-screen situations and a terrific overall one-on-one shot creator.

For what it's worth, through three games, he leads Kentucky in both points and assists.

Albany coach Will Brown just called Murray "the best player in the country," per ESPN's Fran Fraschilla, after the freshman went for 19 points and eight assists on his Great Danes. (Fraschilla compared him to "a young Brandon Roy.")

Average speed and explosiveness ultimately limit Murray's perceived upside compared to each of our other top five No. 1 candidates, but it's just so easy to envision his scoring and playmaking ability translating from one level to the next.

If a team did take him first overall, it would likely value the safety or little risk he seemingly presents.

5. Dragan Bender (Croatia, PF)

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At this stage, Dragan Bender's talent has been well documented. He's only playing 10.2 minutes a game now with Maccabi Tel Aviv, which might not be enough time to build a convincing No. 1 overall case, but scouts have seen him put on shows at previous European championships and just this past year at Basketball Without Borders and Adidas Eurocamp.

"He is the best prospect overseas and among the top draft picks for sure," Maurizio Gherardini, the director of Eurocamp, told Bleacher Report's David Pick. "Bender is the next big thing, and I suspect all 30 teams will have eyes on him in Chicago and New York."

Whichever general manager wins the lottery will at least take a look at the 7'1" Bender, who's developed the skill set of a forward. He's comfortable operating from behind the arc or initiating the break off a defensive rebound.

His ball skills for a big are tremendous, from his handle to his passing and shot-making ability. A threat to knock down the spot-up or pick-and-pop three, Bender can also put the ball on the floor and finish on the move.

He projects as a defensive asset as well, both in rim protection and pick-and-roll coverage, where he can switch out onto the perimeter and contain quicker scorers in space.

Though not jump-out-of-the-gym athletic, he moves exceptionally well, both north and south and laterally.

And everything is tied together with a terrific basketball IQ and feel for the game.

"I focus on defense because that is how I'll get my minutes, and that's the main thing I need to improve," Bender told Pick. "Also my shooting; I play like a stretch 4, but if I don't hit shots, there is no reason for me to be on the court."

The success of New York Knicks rookie Kristaps Porzingis—another 7-foot, international face-up prospect—can't hurt Bender's chances of persuading the lottery winner to gamble.

4. Brandon Ingram (Duke, SF)

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Having just turned 18 years old in September, Brandon Ingram should get a few free passes his freshman year. He'll use one of them on Duke's showdown against Kentucky on Tuesday night, when Ingram finished with just four points and four turnovers.

But a few duds here and there won't mask the potential tied to his 6'9" size, 7'3" wingspan, smooth athleticism and face-up ball skills.

Even during the Kentucky game, in which Ingram was a non-factor, he was still able to open eyes with some crafty ball-handling and shot-creating.

The Kevin Durant comparisons are silly, but that's the style of offense he brings to the table. Ingram works around the perimeter, where he can attack off the bounce, separate into pull-ups and step-backs or spread the floor as a three-point shooter.

At 190 pounds, chances are he'll have some trouble with the stronger, more physical front lines. But if he can emerge as Duke's go-to option—something sophomore Grayson Allen isn't suited for at Duke—Ingram could strengthen his image and projection as a scoring and playmaking mismatch.

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3. Jaylen Brown (California, SG/SF)

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Jaylen Brown gives off the impression he could hold his own in a pro game tomorrow. At 6'7", 225 pounds, he's physically and athletically on par with NBA wings such as Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard. Meanwhile, he's flashed all the necessary skills that highlight major scoring potential.

Brown can generate offense from all three levels, with the strength and quickness to get to the rack, a developing mid-range game and a capable three-point stroke (made three of first seven from deep).

A tight handle ultimately fuels Brown's shot creativity. While a quick first step naturally translates to hard drives, he's a threat to separate into jumpers off two feet or runners off one. Brown could even see time operating out of pick-and-rolls, given his ability to pull up in space or explode through it.

At the other end, he sports terrific defensive tools, specifically his quick feet, 7'0" wingspan and strength.

Brown ultimately projects as a two-way 2-guard or wing, a player type that seemingly continues to rise in value. The 0-12 Philadelphia 76ers and 1-11 New Orleans Pelicans could certainly each use one.

Without significant mismatch size for the position, you could argue his ceiling is a story lower than the ceilings offered by our top two No. 1 candidates.

To maximize his chances of going first, Brown would have to back up his perceived upside with consistent production. Surprising skeptics with a promising long-range shooting percentage wouldn't hurt either.

2. Skal Labissiere (Kentucky, PF/C)

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With 7'0" size, bounce and eye-opening offensive skills, there is a chance Skal Labissiere is already atop various NBA draft boards across the league.

He's still somewhat rough around the edges, which we saw in Kentucky's win over Duke, when Labissiere fouled out in just 13 minutes of action. But Karl-Anthony Towns exhibited similar raw tendencies at this time last year before the Minnesota Timberwolves took him No. 1.

Labissiere has flashed an exceptionally advanced scoring attack around the key, ranging from the elbows—where he can rise and fire, fade away or turn around for a jumper—to the low block, where he scores over both shoulders using righty and lefty hooks. An incredibly high release makes his shots nearly impossible to contest.

When he isn't featured in the post, he becomes a glowing target for guards as a diver in the pick-and-roll game and finisher off drive-and-dump passes.

He's still learning how to defend in terms of challenging without fouling and timing his rotations, but Labissiere offers rim protection and the versatility to switch. He'll rack up plenty of blocked shots during his one-and-done freshman season.

As Labissiere weighs just 225 pounds, I'd argue there's just a slight bit more risk attached to his outlook than our No. 1 candidate's. But don't expect Labissiere to fall outside the top three, even if his production doesn't back up the projected upside.

1. Ben Simmons (LSU, SF/PF)

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Nobody offers a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio than Ben Simmons. Unparalleled versatility drives his ceiling through the roof, while his 6'10", 240-pound frame (LSU combine measurements) and world-class athleticism suggest minimal bust potential.

It won't be long before he logs his first of many triple-doubles. Simmons operates as a ball-handling point forward—a face-up mismatch in the half court who's automatic in the open floor.

The appeal to Simmons ultimately stems from his ability to create quality scoring opportunities, whether he's facilitating and setting the table, pushing the break and initiating the offense before defenses can set, getting to the rim or finishing effortlessly around it.

He also happens to be an active rebounder who can guard three positions and fill up box scores with steals and blocks.

The fact that his basketball IQ is off the charts only enhances his likability.

Convincing general managers his perimeter game will improve would be the icing on the cake. But even if his jumper doesn't fall his freshman year, there is just too much value tied to his playmaking, passing, defense and ability to pick up easy buckets. Those are strengths coaches can't teach, as opposed to shooting, which can improve over time.

The only other possible obstacle in Simmons' path to No. 1—other than a surging Labissiere—is the question surrounding his future position. But in today's NBA, where Draymond Green can play center and Paul George can man the 4, it's not a concern that should trigger much hesitation from general managers.

"I wouldn't mind that. That would be awesome," Simmons told Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears in response to his No. 1 overall projections. "There is a long way to go. There are guys coming for that spot. If I keep working I can definitely do it."

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