(Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
Hopefully, my look inside the 49ers-Michael Crabtree negotiations on Friday proved the point that it’s not as simple as “slotting the pick” and filling in the numbers accordingly.
This one is complicated for a few reasons, some of which we discussed then.
In negotiating the contract for Jeremy Maclin, the wide receiver taken after Crabtree in the first round (albeit nine picks later), one of the difficulties was that the selection was sandwiched in the first round by players who were defensive linemen, offensive linemen, a tight end, a quarterback, etc.
Should that matter, you ask? For the purposes of base contract and guaranteed money, not really. The player is picked where he’s picked; it’s of no importance—except for a quarterback—what position he plays.
The Michael Crabtree saga continues as the 49ers begin Week 3 of the season.
The place it matters is upside, i.e., escalators. It’s challenging to equate the level of difficulty of the escalator to players in entirely different positions where statistical accomplishments—very important to a wide receiver—are largely irrelevant, save for sacks. The primary escalation marker for many positions is playing time, not directly relevant to a receiver.
Similar challenges have been present in the Crabtree drama. Directly above him are linemen B.J. Raji of the Packers and Eugene Monroe of the Jaguars, whose upside is based primarily on playing time. Above those picks is the much-discussed Darrius Heyward-Bey deal with the Raiders, whose contract the Crabtree camp is trying hard to latch on to for obvious reasons.
Although it will be extremely difficult to approach the hard numbers of the Heyward-Bey contract, it’s the escalator that Crabtree’s camp argues should be the apples-to-apples comparison.
Heyward-Bey’s contract has a base value of $38 million, almost $16 million more than the pick above Crabtree, Raji at $22M. While Raji has been the marker used by the 49ers—a reasonable data point for both sides—Heyward-Bey has been a focal point for the other side.
Heyward Bey’s contract value goes to nearly $41 million for 60 catches one time in his first four years; it escalates to more than $43 million for 60 catches twice.
Crabtree has taken notice. While he makes the argument that this contract should be a key data point because of the position the players play, especially regarding upside, the 49ers point to the fact that the deal is three picks away, buffered by two deals in between.
Another dynamic appears to be one first written about by Mike Sando of ESPN and discussed here at the NFP by my colleague Brad Biggs: the lack of production of wide receivers in offenses run by 49ers coordinator Jimmy Raye.
Just as opponents have scouting reports on whom they’re playing, agents have scouting reports on philosophies of coordinators that affect the earning potential of clients.
As Sando and Biggs pointed out, in Raye’s 12 previous seasons as an offensive coordinator, only twice has a wide receiver reached 1,000 yards, and only twice has a receiver had more than 64 receptions. To put that in perspective, 22 receivers had more than 1,000 yards last season and 30 had more than 64 receptions.
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