Can Matt Hasselbeck Lead Colts to AFC South Crown in Andrew Luck's Absence?

Not quite two days after Andrew Luck re-established himself as one of the league's best young quarterbacks, and his Indianapolis Colts as playoff contenders, he's again on the shelf. This time, his absence could cost the Colts their chance at the postseason.

According to Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star, a lacerated kidney and torn abdominal muscle suffered during Sunday's game against the Denver Broncos will sideline Luck anywhere from two to six weeks.

"It's the National Football League, and we're getting our fair share of tests and adversity," Colts head coach Chuck Pagano said Tuesday, according to Keefer. "Like I said, we've come through the fire before, and we'll come through this one again."

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Of course, Indianapolis faced this specific adversity already in Weeks 4 and 5, after it lost Luck to a shoulder injury and started backup Matt Hasselbeck in his place. Though the 40-year-old Hasselbeck is nearly eight years removed from his last Pro Bowl, he was able to lead the Colts to two divisional wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans.

But those teams are a combined 5-11 right now, with no hope of improvement in sight. Indianapolis will face some much-tougher foes over the next six weeks; does Hasselbeck have enough left in the tank to get the Colts to the AFC South crown—and, as Pagano's job may depend upon, set them up for another deep playoff run?

There's no question Hasselbeck was able to execute since-fired offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton's offense at a credible level.

In fact, a quick comparison of Hasselbeck's rate stats and Luck's makes plain just how poor Luck's performance was prior to the game against the Broncos:

Name	Cmp.%	TD%	INT%	Sk%	Y/A	AY/A	ANY/A	Y/C	Rate	QBR
Luck	55.3	5.1	4.1	4.9	6.4	5.6	5.0	11.6	74.9	47.6
Hasselbeck	63.2	3.9	0.0	3.8	6.5	7.3	6.8	10.3	95.0	77.2

Hasselbeck's completion rate, adjusted yards per attempt and adjusted net yards per attempt are much higher than Luck's, and his sack rate is much lower. The former also has a much-higher NFL passer efficiency rating and ESPN QBR. Luck has thrown 12 picks in 293 attempts, while Hasselbeck didn't throw a single interception in 76 passes!

The two areas in which Luck outshines Hasselbeck are touchdown rate and yards per completion; Hasselbeck didn't just fail to beat teams deep, he didn't seriously try. This kind of riskless passing can be effective in moving the chains, especially when the running game is working, but to consistently put up points, Hasselbeck needs to go downfield more.

Indeed, Hasselbeck and the Colts needed overtime to put up 16 points on the lowly Jags—but his 27-20 win over the Texans was driven by an 18-of-29, 213-yard, two-touchdown performance against the league's No. 8 pass defense.

A banner day from receiver Andre Johnson certainly didn't hurt, and Frank Gore racking up 98 yards on 22 carries added the balance Indianapolis lacked against Jacksonville. Supporting cast aside, though, Hasselbeck overcoming a bacterial infection to play like that was a signature moment.

In fact, his showing earned a plus-4.2 grade from Pro Football Focus, the highest by any Colts quarterback this year (yes, even higher than Luck's grade against the Broncos) and tied for the NFL's second-best for Week 5.

Can Hasselbeck keep playing like that—and for how long will he have to try? Dr. David Chao, a former NFL head team physician with 17 years of experience, thinks Luck's absence will likelier be on the long end of that two- to six-week window, per SiriusXM NFL Radio:

The Colts are on their bye week, meaning Luck will at least miss their Nov. 22 game at the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons defense started hot and is still the NFL's 13th-ranked scoring unit, but Atlanta's offense is faltering, and it has lost two straight games to the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers.

Even so, it's unlikely Hasselbeck hangs big numbers on the Falcons, as their No. 2-ranked run defense may again force Indianapolis to be one-dimensional. To get a win, Hasselbeck needs the Colts defense to force Matt Ryan into turnovers—and Hasselbeck needs to keep his interception-free streak alive.

After that contest, Indianapolis hosts the maddeningly inconsistent Buccaneers. They have a below-average offense and the NFL's fourth-worst scoring defense, yet they have beaten the Falcons and New Orleans Saints.

Sitting at 3-5, and bolstered by Mike Evans' return, the signs here point to a shootout—and Hasselbeck, never a downfield bomber, certainly can't match young Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston's cannon.

The Colts then go on the road to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, who will likely have Ben Roethlisberger's services. The Steelers defense is surprisingly the NFL's eighth-ranked scoring unit and could give Hasselbeck fits.

And even though Indianapolis' healthy skill-position corps isn't far out of Pittsburgh's league, it's hard to imagine a healthy Roethlisberger getting outscored when he's playing a defense he hung 51 points on last year. 

After that difficult three-game stretch, Hasselbeck has the good fortune of playing the Jaguars and Texans—the two teams he's already beaten.

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

If Luck misses six weeks, Hasselbeck picks up where he left off and the Colts don't collapse under the weight of uncertainty and pressure, Indianapolis should be able to net at least one, likely two and possibly three wins out of those five games.

In that conservative estimate, Luck would be returning to a team sitting at 6-8. The Colts will then have only the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans—two teams that have already fired their head coaches—sitting between them and a .500 finish.

Here is where Indianapolis' saving grace comes into play: The AFC South is struggling mightily this year. The Texans are 3-5, and both the Titans and Jaguars are 2-6. All three have to play the Colts during the stretch run, so the path to the division title is straight and well-paved.

Indianapolis could win the AFC South at 9-7, 8-8, 7-9 or even 6-10; it seems likely Hasselbeck will set the Colts up to do at least that well. Whether Luck will be healthy enough, or the rest of the team good enough, to get back to the AFC Championship Game—let alone beyond it—is a much-dicier question.