Coaching Errors Overshadow Marked Improvement from Indianapolis Colts

If you would have told anybody that the Indianapolis Colts were only going to lose by one score to the New England Patriots on Sunday, most people would have laughed. 

The Colts were predicted to get run over by most experts, and deservedly so.

This was the team that lost the last four games by a combined score of 189-73, losing by at least three scores in each contest. This was the team that had lost definitively to the Bills and Jets to start the season before three games against AFC South opponents kicked their butts into gear. 

Eric Wilbur of Boston.com did a roundup of predictions prior to the game, and it is not pretty. 

Every single analyst, including ones from ESPN, CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports, the Miami Herald, FiveThirtyEight, NFL.com, SB Nation, USA Today, Pro Football Talk, Mass Live, PhillyVoice, CBS Boston, the Washington Post and the Boston Globe, all picked the Patriots to win. 

Those who had the option all picked the Colts to lose by two scores or more. This was a game in Indianapolis, remember. Apparently home-field advantage was not a factor here.

But the Colts did not get blown out, instead leading the Patriots 21-20 at halftime. They would end up getting outplayed in the second half and losing 34-27, but the game was never totally out of reach like it was in previous matchups. 

No, on this night, the Colts looked like an NFL football team, an actual competitor to the Patriots. Sure, they allowed 34 points, but the Patriots have scored 28 or more points in all five of their games this season, including 40 or more twice.

This game actually played out very similarly to the Pittsburgh Steelers' loss to the Patriots earlier this year, as both the Steelers and Colts scored a late touchdown to pull within one score but couldn't get an onside kick to go their way. Although, to be fair. the Colts' touchdown came with just under two minutes remaining, while Pittsburgh didn't get within one score until there were just seven seconds left. 

The Colts massively overperformed compared to their expectations, but yet the overall feeling at the end of the night was still one of helplessness after the game. It was remarkable. 

How could a team that has outperformed its expectations by a wide margin, losing by just one score to what is currently the most dominant team in the league, be universally chastised? 

Well, it's quite simple. 

Down six with just over a minute left in the third quarter, the Colts lined up in punt formation on 4th-and-3, only to watch nine of the 11 players shift to the right side of the field while backup wide receiver Griff Whalen bent over the ball in a snapping position, with depth safety Colt Anderson taking the snap. 

With everybody a bit confused at what Indianapolis was doing, including the announcers, the Patriots calmly had four or five players over the top of the ball and smothered Anderson as soon as Whalen snapped the ball. 

It was one of the single dumbest plays that I've ever seen a team try to execute. 

Chuck Pagano's explanation of the play didn't really bring any more clarity to the situation, per ESPN.com:

"

The whole idea there was, on a fourth-and-3 or less, shift to an alignment where you either catch them misaligned, they try to sub some people in, catch them with 12 men on the field. If you get a certain look, 3 yards, 2 yards, you can make a play. But again, we shifted over, and I didn't do a good enough job coaching it during the week. Alignment-wise, we weren't lined up correctly and then a communication breakdown between the quarterback and snapper. That's all on me.

"

Perhaps the Colts were trying to get something similar to Oregon's "swinging gate" formation set up but simply did it incredibly poorly. The Oregon formation includes two players behind the snapper, both set back in the shotgun, and a player ready to catch the ball and run behind the wall of players on the side. Nothing about the Colts' formation forced the Patriots to guard multiple options like that. 

It was extremely out of character for Indianapolis, which has done a great job over the last few years of executing trick plays on special teams, whether it be surprise onside kicks (one of which they recovered earlier in the game, although the referees missed that particular call) or fake punts. 

But this one was just nonsensical, in a critical point in the game, and it put Indianapolis in a horrible situation. The Patriots had to go just 35 yards for a touchdown, so despite the Colts stopping them on five of seven drives in the second half, they found themselves down by two scores in the fourth quarter, leading to a less-than-advantageous shift in the offensive game plan as well. 

It was a huge coaching mistake in a critical point in the game. 

Against a more poorly coached team, maybe something like this would have forced the opponent to panic and make a mistake, or even take a timeout. But it was the Colts who panicked here instead.

Really, you could point to coaching as the critical failure of the game, as the Colts failed to counterattack after the Patriots changed gears at halftime. Bill Belichick and his staff make the best halftime adjustments in the league, and it was evident once again on Sunday. 

The Colts were moving up and down the field with relative ease in the first half, with a relatively balanced approach and quarterback Andrew Luck going for 17-for-22 for 140 yards and two touchdowns. They employed a quick-passing offense not unlike what they did in the last two games with Matt Hasselbeck, and the talent-deficient Patriots defense was overwhelmed. 

But the Patriots took those quick passes away in the second half, and with the Colts continuously putting themselves in poor situations with penalties, they couldn't ride running back Frank Gore as much as they'd have liked. Gore averaged over six yards per attempt, but he carried the ball just 13 times as the Colts were down two scores for most of the fourth quarter. 

After taking a 21-20 lead into halftime, the Colts scored just six points in the second half. 

The Colts defense was not good either, allowing the Patriots to score 27 points on their first six drives. They did give Indianapolis a chance to stay in the game in the second half, forcing five punts, rather than completely collapsing like we've seen in the past, but let's not mistake that for a good performance. 

For all the failures, this was still a one-possession game. 

The Colts did not get steamrolled. They did not roll over and play dead. The Patriots didn't score 60, and Indianapolis nearly had a shot at a game-winning drive. 

It was an unexpectedly good effort, but one that will be overshadowed by coaching mistakes. It was a reminder that even when the Colts come out looking prepared and motivated, convert a key fourth down early on and execute an onside kick to perfection, there is still a massive coaching difference between the Patriots and Colts. 

Other differences exist too, of course. The Colts have far too many exploitable weaknesses. 

But on this day, the spotlight is on the coaching. 

For Indianapolis, it's really too bad. The gap between the Colts and the Patriots was the smallest that it's ever been over the last four years on Sunday night. 

In the end, "almost" doesn't cut it in the National Football League, especially not when you have a lowlight like the "The Snapfu."