Andrew Luck Must Avoid Turnovers Against the New England Patriots

For Indianapolis Colts fans, Week 6 isn't even really about getting a win. 

It's about staying competitive. 

A post on the Colts' sub-reddit went viral earlier this week as the popular social networking site's local Colts fans tried to come up with ways the team could manage to stay within 20 points of the New England Patriots. Losing by less than 20 points would, of course, be the lowest margin of defeat against the Patriots since Andrew Luck was drafted back in 2012. 

In fact, the Colts were closer to victory with Curtis Painter on the field back in 2011 than they ever have been with Luck. 

That, of course, is in no way an endorsement of Painter over Luck, merely an example of how hopeless things seem to have gotten in Indianapolis whenever the Patriots are in town. The Peyton Manning Colts certainly had their issues with New England, but at least things were relatively competitive. 

The Colts aren't favorites on Sunday, not by a long shot, but in a sport that sees weekly upsets, anything is possible. 

But for the Colts to have a chance at upsetting the sitting Super Bowl champions, they have to keep the game close. Each of the team's four matchups since 2012 have included double-digit deficits in the third quarter, and both of the two playoff games have included 14-0 deficits in the first quarter. 

That's a not a recipe for beating anybody, much less a Bill Belichick-coached team. 

The Colts have had some comeback success with Luck at center, but doing so against the Patriots is a near-impossible feat.

In order to keep things doable, the Colts have to win the turnover battle. 

In those four matchups against New England, Luck has thrown 10 interceptions, with an interception percentage of 5.95 percent. His interception percentage against all other teams has been 2.45 percent. 

To be clear, Luck's pick-happy stats against the Patriots haven't been the reason the Colts have faced big deficits. 

Luck's interceptions have largely come when chasing those big deficits. Nine of Luck's interceptions have come while trailing against New England, five of them coming while down three scores or more. 

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

No, the Colts' biggest issue with New England hasn't been Luck's interceptions. But it's still something the Colts must avoid in Week 6. 

For while Luck's interceptions weren't the main problem against New England in past matchups, it has been one of the main problems to start this season. While he didn't have the best supporting cast in the Colts' 1-2 start with Luck at the helm, the fourth-year quarterback's league-high seven interceptions over that time period was inexcusable. 

Against the Bills, Luck threw two interceptions, both underthrown deep balls that the Bills were able to easily take advantage of. He nearly threw a third that was dropped deep along the right sideline. While the second pick was a desperation throw late in the fourth quarter, the first killed a promising drive for Indianapolis, and led to the Bills' first touchdown. 

Against the Jets, Luck's final pick was another desperation heave, but the first two were poor throws that killed drives and, in the case of the first, led directly to Jets points. Against the Titans, same story: Two interceptions by Luck with the game still in reach directly led to 10 points by Tennessee. 

It's an odd thing for this Colts team, but Luck's poor decision-making, and, more importantly, poor throws, have been the biggest issues for Indianapolis.

Against New England, the Colts need everything to go right. The most important part of that equation, however, is Luck. If Luck is playing at his best, and that means taking care of the football, the Colts have a chance to at least keep things withing striking distance late in the game. 

So how can Luck improve his ball protection? 

By taking a page from Matt Hasselbeck's book. 

The Colts' game plan shifted when Hasselbeck was under center, featuring more underneath options and a shorter-overall passing focus. Six of Luck's interceptions this season came on deep passes without a short option over the middle. Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton's game plans were very vertical, as the Colts tried to find their identity as a vertical offense. 

But the Colts' lack of a solidified offensive line meant that a vertical offense was difficult to get off the ground. The offense needed more balance, both on the ground and with quicker passing. 

Tight end Dwayne Allen saw some similar identity issues, per Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star: 

"

The Colts, Allen said, need "to find a groove and an identity. I think from Tennessee to this week, we looked very different offensively. We had somewhat better production. But what is our identity? We have all these pieces. It's like, what are we? Are we a running team? Are we a passing team? Who are the (primary) options? We're starting to figure out who those guys are and the ball is starting to find those guys."

"

Part of the issue the Colts need to address is Luck's decision-making, which needs to be quicker. Hasselbeck did a relatively good job of this in the Colts' sped-up offense. 

The other is the overall offensive game plan, which should adjust after the team's relative success over the last two weeks. The Colts won't stay quite so limited with Luck at the helm, but Hamilton has to keep his offense adjusted to his offensive line, especially against a Patriots team that won't be shy about sending pass-rushers at Luck. 

If Luck can make quick decisions and the offense can supply him with decent options across the middle, the Colts might be able to move the ball consistently while taking care of the ball. That's the only way they'll be able to keep up with the Patriots, and, just maybe, have a shot at the upset of the year.