Browns vs. Ravens: What's the Game Plan for Cleveland?

We may as well Sharpie in John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco as minority owners of the Cleveland Browns.

Flacco has commanded his Baltimore Ravens to a nearly perfect 13-1 record over the last seven years against their AFC North “rival.” Harbaugh even won both games in 2008 before his arrival, both by double digits.

If you have any type of rooting interest in the Browns, or even if you’re an organizational member, it’s hard to be mad about it, because that’s amazing.

The key to their extended period of success against the team’s former hometown has been their dedication to running the ball and their ability to do so. Over that 14-game span, Baltimore has rushed 34 times per game for an average of 144 yards.

That’s a staggering 2,017 yards in just 14 games.

But that imposing rushing game the Ravens relied on in past years hasn’t been there this season.

Justin Forsett, though, just erupted for 150 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers last Thursday night. He averaged 6.5 yards per carry in his two career starts against the Browns in 2014. Cleveland’s 31st-ranked defense is allowing over 140 yards per game on the ground.

With Torrey Smith gone to San Francisco, Michael Campanaro on injured reserve, Steve Smith doubtful to play, and Crockett Gillmore and rookie Breshad Perriman out, Flacco’s options are limited. It’s a perfect storm for the Ravens to match their 34-rush average while punishing the run-susceptible Browns in Week 5.

Can the Browns do anything to stop them?

Offensive Game Plan

Cleveland’s offense hasn’t been the problem. Josh McCown has spread the ball around, making tight end Gary Barnidge look like a star and rookie Duke Johnson look like a seasoned pro. Speaking of Johnson, his involvement will be vital to Cleveland picking up first downs and keeping the chains moving in Week 5. The Ravens don’t have the imposing front of year past but are still a middling rush defense that limits big plays. Those big plays could come in the passing game.

Browns offensive coordinator John DeFilippo continues to deploy deceptive personnel groupings to catch defenses in favorable lineups. That strategy has proved to create mismatches and helped the Browns score a touchdown in Week 4.

This first screen capture shows the Browns in their initial 21-personnel formation—two backs, one tight end and two receivers.

Source: NFL Gamepass

The Chargers sent out their base defense to counter that personnel grouping. Before the snap, running backs Malcolm Johnson and Duke Johnson split out wide to the left, drawing two linebackers in coverage. Johnson has an obvious speed advantage in this matchup and burned the coverage for a touchdown.

Source: NFL Gamepass

San Diego opted to play man coverage with a single-high safety. That created a foot race between Johnson out of the slot and linebacker Donald Butler. Johnson wins that race 10 times out of 10.

The Ravens have allowed 118 yards on 19 catches to running backs this season. If DeFilippo can continue to be creative, Johnson’s versatility should help the Browns add to that total.

Defensive Game Plan

Last season, Marc Trestman’s offense in Chicago led Matt Forte to 102 catches, the most ever in a season by a running back. Forsett has just 16 catches through four games in 2015. But backups Lorenzo Taliaferro and Javorius Allen have seven between them. Those 23 catches extrapolate to 92 total for the year, which is pretty close despite the Ravens not looking much like Trestman’s old offense.

You can bet they have been watching the Browns scramble to defend running backs in the passing game again this season. Cleveland is allowing 4.25 completions and 59 receiving yards per game to running backs. Danny Woodhead’s 61-yard catch-and-run last week is a perfect illustration of the challenges the Browns face against Trestman this week.

Source: NFL Gamepass

The Browns sent only five pass-rushers, but no one seemed to notice Woodhead pass protect for an instant and then slip out behind the line of scrimmage for an easy reception. The shifty running back ran for 61 yards before being taken down.

Stopping the run is another priority this week, as Flacco’s passing weapons are few. Limiting San Diego to just 91 yards on the ground last week was a huge victory for the porous Browns rush defense. One thing Cleveland tried was moving safety Donte Whitner up in the box, while playing Tashaun Gipson as a single-high safety. Here’s Whitner run blitzing. He eventually takes down Melvin Gordon for a two-yard loss on the play.

Source: NFL Gamepass

Stopping Forsett on the ground and in the air is the biggest key for the Browns this week defensively. Pressuring Flacco is important and goes without saying. But the Browns secondary, with or without Joe Haden on the field, should be able to limit the likes of Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown, Chris Givens and Maxx Williams. If not, there are bigger problems in Cleveland.

Key Players and Matchups

With Terrell Suggs out for the season, Mitchell Schwartz holding down the right tackle position against Elvis Dumervil is going to be one of the key matchups to watch. Dumervil averaged over one sack per game against the Browns and will be rushing against Schwartz, whose real impact is as a run-blocker.

Jason Babin and rookie pass-rusher Za’Darius Smith—two sacks against Pittsburgh last week—will be tasked with getting past Joe Thomas. Those two will need good luck against one of the best technicians in the game.

While that’s an important one to monitor, don’t sleep on Danny Shelton’s importance in this game. Shelton has played well against one blocker, and there’s no doubt the Ravens have seen that.  

“He’s doing a nice job for us, especially when he’s single-blocked,” coach Mike Pettine said in a press conference this week. “When he gets doubled, he has a tendency sometimes to get his pads up. He knows that he needs to anchor in a little bit better.”

Source: NFL Gamepass

That's not entirely true. In Week 3 against the Oakland Raiders, Shelton was single-blocked, and Latavius Murray ran right over the center, breaking a 54-yard run after the behemoth rookie nose tackle was easily moved aside.

Source: NFL Gamepass

If he doesn’t anchor better, the strong Ravens offensive line will be able to move him to open up big holes while sliding onto linebackers on the second level. Forsett’s eyes are getting big just thinking about it.

Travis Benjamin will test a Ravens secondary that has gotten a bad calling this season but hasn’t really played as badly as some may think. Despite giving up the ninth-most points per game, the Ravens are 21st in “big plays” allowed in the passing game—or those totaling 20 or more yards. Benjamin has seven such plays, including three receptions of 40 yards or more. All three of those longer receptions came from the arm of Johnny Manziel, though, not McCown.

Prediction

The Browns win. It’d be nice to say it will be easy and without a struggle, but that just isn’t Cleveland’s style. Baltimore is in a vulnerable position, even with 10 days of rest, and the Browns are coming into M&T Bank Stadium frustrated and with a lot to prove.

It won’t be another offensive outburst for McCown and the Browns after lighting up the stat sheet over the last two weeks. But the Browns do have a variety of capable offensive skill players, a solid offensive line and a quarterback who has shown he can make the throws needed to keep his team in contention. The end results haven’t been good, but the Browns have been competitive.

They’ll show even more signs of life in Baltimore by actually finishing the game on top on the scoreboard. If not, how far down will the Browns sink in 2015? And how much patience would owner Jimmy Haslam really have if faced with a disaster finish just one season removed from winning seven games?

The Browns need this win, badly, and the Ravens just aren’t the same by virtue of attrition.

Prediction: Browns 24, Ravens 23

All statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and NFL.com.

All quotes obtained from weekly press releases distributed via email by Browns communications manager Rob McBurnett.

Mike Hoag (@MikeHoagJr) covers the Cleveland Browns for Bleacher Report and is the managing editor of Browns Beat.