Will Jimmie Johnson, Like Tiger Woods, Fall Short of Rewriting Title History?

Is Jimmie Johnson in danger of becoming the Tiger Woods of NASCAR?

Remember when it was a foregone conclusion that Woods would not only catch Jack Nicklaus' all-time record of 18 major golf championships, but leave it in the proverbial dust? Woods, who has been stuck on a total of 14 majors since 2008, will be on the wrong side of 40 years old the next time he tees it up competitively. Year by year, Woods has become more injury-prone and less of his former great self.

Johnson, who just turned 40 on Sept. 17, won five NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championships in a row from the 2006 through 2010 seasons. Then, after Tony Stewart won the title in 2011 and Brad Keselowski in 2012, Johnson snared No. 6 in 2013.

The talk about reaching No. 7 and tying NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt for the most championships of all time actually began by the time Johnson secured his fourth at the age of 34. When he won his fifth the very next season, the whispers were upgraded to include the possibility of Johnson actually surpassing both Petty and Earnhardt to become the winningest driver in NASCAR's glorious history.

The sixth championship in 2013 added fuel to the smoldering talk that Johnson was inevitable headed toward a history-making legacy in his career.

Rob Brown/Associated Press

Now, such talk for Johnson suddenly seems muted.

When the Contender Round for the 2015 Chase for the Sprint Cup commences this Saturday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Johnson will no longer be one of the 12 drivers eligible to race for this year's title. It's the second year in a row he's been eliminated from the Chase long before it reached its deciding race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, where the last drivers standing in the elimination format, which was introduced last season, battle it out in a winner-take-all final race.

Last year, at least, Johnson made it through the first round of the Chase and wasn't eliminated until the end of the Contender Round after the sixth playoff race.

But now that it has happened two years in a row and Johnson is on the wrong side of 40, it's legitimate to ask if his window of opportunity to forge a legacy as the most prolific champion in the history of his sport is passing him by. 

Johnson appeared to be in good shape entering the final race of the first round of the Chase, known by NASCAR as the Challenger Round. He was in the seemingly comfortable spot of fifth place, 27 points clear of the driver in 13th of the 16 drivers who made the Chase. All he had to do was finish in the top 12 to avoid being one of the four drivers eliminated.

He didn't have to win the race to advance. All he had to do was avoid disaster at a track where he had won previously a record 10 times.

But disaster struck in the form of a rear-axle seal that went bad on Lap 104 of the race at Dover International Speedway.

"It's a part that costs less than $10," Fox Sports analyst Kenny Wallace said shortly after it happened.

Johnson was philosophical after it relegated him to a 41st-place finish in the 43-car field and led to his Chase elimination.

"Definitely disappointed," Johnson told Jay Pennell of FoxSports.com and the Associated Press after the race. "It's tough having a very inexpensive axle seal be the culprit and take your championship hopes away. It's racing. I've had mechanical (issues) take me out of championships growing up that led to some success for myself and I'm sure helped me with a championship or two. It's just part of racing. It just shows how critical everything is on a race team. And how important every component is, and you can’t take anything for granted.

"(It's) heartbreaking for sure, but I don't know what else we can do about it. We just have to go on and try to win races and close out the season strong."

It was, in short, horrible luck. There is nothing a driver can do about something like that, and it certainly had nothing to do with Johnson's level of skill diminishing.

"Is there anyone who ever thought Jimmie Johnson, a 10-time winner at Dover, wouldn't advance?" former crew chief and current Fox Sports analyst Larry McReynolds wrote for FoxSports.com. "On top of his previous Dover success, Jimmie had a 27-point cushion, but now a $20 part, if it even costs that, has kept him from moving on.

"He and crew chief Chad Knaus may race together 10 more years, and it will never happen again. For all we know, it may never happen again, period, but it happened to Jimmie and Chad, and 'POOF' went their bid for a seventh championship. It's just one of those things that happens in racing that will be talked about for years."

What should be of greater concern to Johnson is that his No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet hasn't been fast enough to lead a single Sprint Cup lap since the last race at Daytona in July. That included a whole bunch of laps and races in which the rear-axle seals in his car didn't go bad.

Yes, Johnson has passed 40 years of age. He also regularly runs triathlons and he's involved in a sport where another driver, Denny Hamlin of Joe Gibbs Racing, has remained in the thick of championship contention despite tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee recently while playing basketball.

So the answer to the question is, Johnson is not the Tiger Woods of his sport. Not yet, anyway.

He won four races earlier this season, and he drives for an organization in Hendrick Motorsports that will get its lack of speed (in all four of its cars, not just Johnson's) figured out sooner rather than later, even if that isn't this season.

Two of Johnson's current fellow competitors, Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart, are set to retire. Gordon is hanging up his race helmet at age 44 following this season. Stewart will follow suit after next season at age 45.

Neither of those two has been as competitive as Johnson in recent years, nor have they been as healthy (Gordon has battled back issues and Stewart a badly broken leg). Neither is in the kind of shape or position to carve his name into history that Johnson is. Stewart certainly has never been a candidate to run a triathlon, much less multiple ones.

So before anyone writes Johnson off as merely "Six Time," his current nickname, or compares him in unfavorable terms to Woods, they need to think again. Johnson still has the time, ability and company resources to win at least one more title in his career and possibly the two it would take to completely rewrite history.

It just isn't going to happen this year, that's all.

Joe Menzer has written six books, including two about NASCAR, and now writes about it and other sports for Bleacher Report, as well as assisting in coverage of NASCAR for FoxSports.com as a Digital Content Producer. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.